| 研究生: |
姜亦柔 Jiang, Yi-Rou |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
氣候揭露、碳排行為與超額報酬:言行背離溢酬的形成、消散與政策調節 Climate disclosure, carbon performance, and abnormal returns: formation, dissipation, and policy moderation of the speech action misalignment premium |
| 指導教授: |
江彌修
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu |
| 口試委員: |
許育進
盧佳琪 徐之強 詹育儒 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 69 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 氣候揭露 、碳排放 、言行背離溢酬 、氣候政策不確定性 、法說會文本分析 、有限注意力 、廉價話語 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Climate disclosure, Carbon emissions, Speech-action misalignment premium, Climate policy uncertainty, Earnings call text analysis, Limited attention, Cheap talk |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:77 下載:0 |
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本研究以2014年至2024年美國上市公司為樣本,結合法說會氣候變遷曝險指標(CCE)與產業調整後碳強度年變動量(adjΔCI),透過雙向固定效果迴歸,系統性檢驗氣候資訊揭露、實質減碳行為與股票異常報酬之間的關聯。
實證結果確認,CCE對當期異常報酬具有顯著正向影響,adjΔCI則呈顯著負向影響;而兩者交乘項顯著為正,揭示市場在短期內對「高氣候言論伴隨碳排相對惡化」的矛盾組合給予額外正向溢酬,形成可計量識別的「言行背離溢酬」,且此溢酬於一至兩季後逐步消散,與廉價話語理論及有限注意力框架的理論預期一致。進一步引入氣候政策不確定性指數(CPU)作為時變調節變數後,發現在政策不確定性飆升的季度,言行背離溢酬受到系統性壓縮,反映外部政策訊號的大量湧入使投資人對個別企業氣候修辭的精細辨別能力相應降低。對ROA的迴歸則顯示,CCE對企業獲利能力的正向傳導約需四至八季方能充分顯現,與市場定價的即時前置效應形成可量化的時序落差,支持資本市場具備定價效率的論述。
本研究以系統性計量識別言行背離溢酬,整合碳溢酬文獻與法說會文本分析文獻,並引入氣候政策不確定性揭示ESG定價的環境依賴性,為氣候資訊的資本市場定價機制提供新的實證基礎。
This study examines the dynamic relationships among climate disclosure, carbon reduction behavior, and stock abnormal returns for U.S. listed companies from 2014 to 2024, using the earnings call-based Climate Change Exposure (CCE) indicator and the industry-adjusted change in carbon intensity (adjΔCI) within a two-way fixed-effects panel regression framework.
Results confirm that CCE is positively associated with contemporaneous abnormal returns while adjΔCI is negatively associated. Most critically, their interaction term is significantly positive, revealing a quantifiable "speech-action misalignment premium" whereby markets award a short-term bonus to firms combining high climate rhetoric with relatively worsening carbon performance. This premium dissipates within one to two quarters, consistent with cheap talk theory and the limited attention framework. I ncorporating the Climate Policy Uncertainty index (CPU) as a time-varying moderator, we find that the misalignment premium is systematically compressed during high-CPU quarters, as surging external policy signals crowd out investors' capacity to scrutinize individual firms' climate rhetoric. Forward-looking ROA regressions further show that the fundamental benefits of climate disclosure take approximately six to eight quarters to materialize, forming a measurable temporal gap relative to the contemporaneous market pricing effect and supporting the forward-looking pricing efficiency of capital markets.
This study provides the first systematic identification of the speech-action misalignment premium, bridges the carbon premium and earnings call text analysis literatures, and reveals the policy-environment dependence of ESG asset pricing.
致謝 I
摘要 II
Abstract III
表目錄 V
圖目錄 V
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究問題與目的 2
第三節 研究貢獻 3
第四節 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻回顧與假說發展 6
第一節 氣候資訊的資產定價基礎 6
第二節 法說會文本分析與氣候揭露的訊號價值 8
第三節 廉價話語、選擇性揭露與言行背離的定價效應 9
第四節 氣候政策不確定性對資訊定價的調節機制 12
第五節 氣候揭露對企業獲利能力的長效傳導 13
第六節 漂綠企業識別相關方法論 13
第三章 研究方法 16
第一節 研究假說 16
第二節 樣本選擇與資料來源 17
第三節 核心變數定義與建構 18
第四節 資料整理與描述 22
第五節 實證模型設定 25
第四章 實證結果與分析 33
第一節 H1 氣候言論與碳排行為定價效應 33
第二節 H2 氣候政策不確定性對言行背離定價效應之調節 42
第三節 H3 氣候揭露及言行背離定價效應對企業獲利能力之長效影響 53
第四節 整合討論 57
第五章 結論 62
第一節 主要研究發現 62
第二節 研究限制與後續研究方向 64
參考文獻 67
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全文公開日期 2031/06/23