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研究生: 王安中
論文名稱: 貨幣政策中之信用管道:以台灣為例
The credit channel of monetary policy: evidence from Taiwan
指導教授: 朱美麗
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 34
外文關鍵詞: Interest rates
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  • The credit market is an important subject in today’s macroeconomic world. Prior to the introduction of the credit market, traditional models only included the goods market and money market to form the IS-LM model. Under this IS-LM model, a change in money supply would have a known effect, such as a monetary expansion policy will result in a drop in the bond rate because the IS curve will remain constant. However, many previous studies did not show this effect, but instead the opposite; those that did show this effect, the magnitude of the shift was different than a traditional IS-LM model. Once the credit market is introduced into the IS-LM model, both the goods market (IS curve) and the money market (LM curve) will shift, resulting in an undetermined change in bond rate, and will also introduce the loan rate, which also shows an undetermined change. Under this model, when a monetary expansionary policy is in effect, it is possible that the bond rate could decrease, increase, or remain constant. This thesis will determine how the credit channel operates in Taiwan, using quarterly data from 1992Q1 to 2009Q4. The final result shows that under this new model, the credit channel in Taiwan does not necessarily follow the previously-known theory.

    Chapter 1: Introduction and Literature Review…..………………………………….……………….. 1
    Chapter 2: The Theoretical Model…………………………………………………………………………… 4
    2.1: Loan Market.…………………………………………..………………………………………………… 4
    2.2: Money Market...……………………………………………………………………………………….. 5
    2.3: Good Market…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 5
    2.4: The Effect of a Change in Bank Reserves…………………………………………………… 5
    2.5: Graphical Representation…………………………………………………………………………. 7
    2.5.1: LM Curve……………………………...……………………………………………………….. 7
    2.5.2: CC Curve………………………………………………………………………………………… 8
    2.5.3: The Effect of Reserve Money Change on Bond Rate…..…………………. 10
    2.5.4: The Effect of Reserve Money Change on Loan Rate.……………………… 13
    2.6: Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………… 16
    Chapter 3: Methodology and Test Results……………………………………………..………………. 17
    3.1: Methodology and Data…………………………………………………………..………………. 17
    3.2: Test Results…………………………………………………………………………..………………… 20
    3.2.1: VAR Setup………………………………………………………………..………………….. 20
    3.2.2: Effect on MONEYRATE…………………………………………………………………. 20
    3.2.3: Effect on GDPSA…………………………………………………………………………… 20
    3.2.4: Effect on INTEREST……………………………………………………………………….. 21
    3.2.5: Considering 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2008 Global Financial Crisis………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 21
    3.3: Summary…………………………………………………………………………..……………………. 21
    Chapter 4: Conclusion……………………………………………………………..……………………………. 24
    References…………………………………………………………………………..………………………………… 25
    Data Sources………..……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26
    Appendix…………………………………………………………………….…………………………………………. 28

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    Data Sources
    Paper Sources
    準備貨幣(月底數)(1993) “中華民國台灣地區金融統計月報” 民國八十三年一月, 中央銀行經濟研究處, March 2010.
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    準備貨幣(月底數)(1995) “中華民國台灣地區金融統計月報” 民國八十五年一月, 中央銀行經濟研究處, March 2010.
    準備貨幣(月底數)(1996) “中華民國台灣地區金融統計月報” 民國八十六年一月, 中央銀行經濟研究處, March 2010.
    準備貨幣(月底數) (1997) “中華民國台灣地區金融統計月報” 民國八十七年一月. 中央銀行經濟研究處, March 2010.
    準備貨幣(月底數) (1998/6) “中華民國台灣地區金融統計月報” 民國八十八年一月. 中央銀行經濟研究處, March 2010.
    Electronic Sources
    放款利率 (1992-2009), 中央銀行.
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    http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/dgbas03/bs7/calendar/calendar.asp?Page=1&Sel-Org=27&ShrField=ShrItm&KeyWrd=存款利率. [June 2010].
    國內生產毛額 (1992-2009), 行政院主計處. http://www.stat.gov.tw/lp.asp?ctNode=2404&CtUnit=1088&BaseDSD=7. [June 2010].
    準備貨幣(月底數)(1998/7-2009), 中央銀行經濟研究處. http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/dgbas03/bs7/calendar/calendar.asp?Page=1&Sel- Org=27&ShrField=ShrItm&KeyWrd=準備貨幣. [June 2010]
    拆款利率 (1992-2009), 中央銀行. http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/dgbas03/bs7/calendar/calendar.asp?Page=1&Sel- Org=27&ShrField=ShrItm&KeyWrd=拆款利率. [March 2010].

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