健全的貨幣供給政策不但可維持物價安定、充分就業、經濟成長及國際收支平衡，亦可促進金融穩定與健全銀行業務。然而，學者關於貨幣供給政策之有效性與最適貨幣供給政策之相關研究，迄今尚未獲致明確且一致的結論。其主要之關鍵在於貨幣供給政策過程中所存在之不確定性，故值得加以深入探討。而貨幣當局之貨幣供給政策往往與通貨膨脹之動態過程予以模型化呈現，藉以衡量通貨膨脹壓力，並作為政策當局制定政策時之依據，實有其必要性。

本文共分四大部份：第一部份利用動態總體經濟模型，將貨幣當局之學習過程予以模型化，以探討貨幣供給政策之學習效果所引發之不確定性；進而擴展De Gregorio(1992)之模型，探討貨幣當局之能力不確定性對於最適貨幣供給政策所造成之影響。第二部份以Goodfriend(1987)之模型為分析之起點，探討政策當局在封閉經濟模型中分別追求物價、利率與貨幣存量平抑之政策目標時，對於總體經濟變數所產生之影響；進而擴展至開放總體經濟模型，探討匯率平抑與國際經濟政策之相依性對於最適貨幣供給政策之影響過程。第三部份則擴展Dornbusch et al. (1977)之模型以探討在浮動匯率下，國際間貨幣供給政策之互動情形，並求出國際貨幣供給成長率之均衡解。最後，則應用Hallman, Poter and Small(1991)由古典學派交易方程式所發展出衡量物價水準P-star模型，以台灣之資料進行實證分析，以期測度此模型對於台灣總體經濟之適用性。本文之主要發現為：

一、若在貨幣供給政策之執行過程中存在不確定性，則貨幣當局在考慮政策行動資訊內容的假設前提下應採用積極的貨幣政策。而貨幣當局對於反通貨膨脹計畫之執行與否，則與初始通貨膨脹水準、通貨膨脹所導致之成本，以及政府執政之持續程度有其關連性。

二、不論在封閉經濟模型或開放經濟模型下，貨幣當局在平抑國內物價水準之外，若額外追求利率、貨幣存量，與匯率水準平抑等政策目標，以及國際經濟之相依性均將引發貨幣供給政策變數之非趨勢恆定時間路徑。

三、在國際經濟環境中，技術水準層次較高之國家將承受較低之通貨膨脹率。貨幣供給政策的改變將影響國際專業分工型態，其在決定國際經濟條件變動之均衡政策反應時，扮演一項重要影響因素。

四、P-star模型在產出與貨幣流通速度處於均衡狀態下，可作為衡量物價水準之一項指標。P-star在台灣之實證經驗顯示，M1b與物價水準間之關係，相較於M1b、M2與物價水準間之關係更為穩定。因此，本研究發現以M1b為台灣貨幣供給政策之指標變數，較具有實證經驗意義，此與蔣碩傑院(1995)，以及王春源(1995)之理論主張相一致。

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