在全球供應鏈環境經歷深刻變革的背景下，地緣政治衝突與極端自然災害日益頻繁，這些外生風險常透過多階層網絡引發嚴重的「漣漪效應」，導致跨區域的連鎖斷鏈。儘管文獻已廣泛探討供應鏈風險緩釋策略，但多數研究仍侷限於靜態架構與單一風險分析，鮮少系統性地結合動態決策過程與網絡相依的產能恢復機制。為彌補此缺口，本研究旨在探討雙重風險交互作用下，不同採購策略與產能恢復機制對供應鏈長期績效的影響。

本研究以大尺寸面板製造商 X 公司為實證個案，整合代理人基礎模型(ABM) 與動態規劃 (DP) 建構多階層供應鏈網絡。研究透過 ABM 模擬各節點在面對外部風險時的產能折減軌跡，並對比「相依性恢復」與「自主修復」兩類機制；隨後將動態產能約束輸入 DP 庫存模型，針對單一採購、雙重採購、產能觸發型採購（備援採購Ⅰ）及緊急追加型採購（備援採購Ⅱ）進行多期最適訂購決策與利潤評估。

研究結果顯示，在基礎情境與自然災害頻繁時，具成本優勢的單一採購為最適決策，而面臨成本結構變動時則應轉向產能觸發型採購，此三種情境均維持相依性恢復機制。然而，當遭受高頻且深度的地緣政治衝擊時，過度依賴單一來源將導致服務水準崩跌，唯有採取產能觸發型採購，並導入利潤表現顯著優異的高自主修復機制，方能展現卓越韌性並保全獲利底線。

Against the backdrop of profound changes in the global supply chain environment, geopolitical conflicts and extreme natural disasters have become increasingly frequent. These exogenous risks often trigger severe "ripple effects" through multi-tier networks, leading to cross-regional chain disruptions. Although the literature has extensively explored supply chain risk mitigation strategies, most studies remain confined to static frameworks and single-risk analyses, rarely systematically integrating dynamic decision-making processes with network-dependent capacity recovery mechanisms. To bridge this gap, this study aims to investigate the impacts of different sourcing strategies and capacity recovery mechanisms on long-term supply chain performance under the interaction of dual risks.
Taking the large-sized panel manufacturer Company X as an empirical case, this study integrates Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and Dynamic Programming (DP) to construct a multi-tier supply chain network. The study utilizes ABM to simulate the capacity degradation trajectories of each node when facing external risks, comparing two types of mechanisms: "dependent recovery" and "self - recovery." Subsequently, the dynamic capacity constraints are inputted into a DP inventory model to conduct multi-period optimal ordering decisions and profit evaluations for single sourcing, dual sourcing, capacity-triggered sourcing (backup sourcing I), and emergency incremental sourcing (backup sourcing II).
The research results indicate that under the baseline scenario and frequent natural disasters, single sourcing with a cost advantage is the optimal decision, whereas a shift to capacity-triggered sourcing is required when facing cost structure changes; all three scenarios maintain the dependent recovery mechanism. However, when subjected to high-frequency and deep geopolitical shocks, over-reliance on a single source will lead to a collapse in service levels. Only by adopting capacity-triggered sourcing and introducing a highly autonomous recovery mechanism with significantly superior profit performance can excellent resilience be demonstrated and the profit floor be safeguarded.

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