過去半世紀以來，美國耐久財製造業歷經石油危機、資訊科技革命、全球化外包與金融海嘯等多重經濟衝擊，其產業結構與資源配置效率發生深遠轉變。本文使用 1975 至 2024 年美國企業微觀面板資料，結合 Hsieh and Klenow（2009）之資源錯置架構與不完全競爭下的分部門成長會計框架進行動態拆解。
反事實模擬結果顯示，實際產出與無扭曲基準之缺口比率（Gap Ratio）自 1990 年代末起持續攀升，2020 年後突破 20%，對應於加成率上升與廠商間 TFPR 離散擴大。成長會計拆解發現，實體資本與勞動的完全競爭貢獻自 2000 年代後大幅萎縮；2007 年後，中間投入加成效應在模型估計中升至 3.73 個百分點（佔模型隱含成長約 53%），且高度集中於電腦與電子產品部門（334）。另一方面，2008 年汽車業紓困干預對應於運輸設備部門（336）在 2007–2018 年間出現 −13.48 個百分點的 TFP 貢獻下滑，大幅抵銷了高科技部門的貢獻。上述結果顯示，美國製造業的潛在產出缺口與加成率上升、部門間 TFPR 離散擴大及特定政策干預下的資源滯留密切相關。就本文模型所著重之配置效率而言，改善市場競爭環境與降低低效產能滯留，可能有助於提升資源配置效率。

Driven by oil crises, the ICT revolution, global outsourcing, and the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. durable goods manufacturing sector has undergone major changes in industrial structure and resource allocation over the past half-century. Using U.S. firm-level panel data from 1975 to 2024, this study combines the resource misallocation framework of Hsieh and Klenow (2009) with sectoral growth accounting under imperfect competition. Counterfactual simulations show that the Gap Ratio between actual output and the no-distortion benchmark has risen since the late 1990s and exceeded 20% after 2020, corresponding to rising markups and widening firm-level TFPR dispersion. Growth accounting results show that the perfectly competitive contributions of capital and labor declined sharply after the 2000s, while the intermediate input markup effect rose to 3.73 percentage points after 2007, accounting for about 53% of model-implied growth, and was concentrated in computer and electronic products (NAICS 334). In contrast, the 2008 auto bailout corresponds to a −13.48 percentage point decline in the TFP contribution of transportation equipment (NAICS 336) during 2007–2018, offsetting much of the high-tech sector’s contribution. Overall, the results indicate that the potential output gap in U.S. manufacturing is closely associated with rising markups, widening TFPR dispersion, and resource retention under specific policy interventions; from the perspective of allocative efficiency, improving the competitive environment and reducing inefficient capacity retention may help enhance resource allocation efficiency.

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