本論文探討後冷戰時期中共與東協安全戰略關係。在中共方面，係依據現實主義之主張，主要是分析中共之國家安全戰略。在東協部分，主要是以東協組織為研究對象，惟由於東協整合程度仍有相當大之成長空間，故亦以東協成員國之主流論點為分析觀點。至於所研究的安全問題範疇，將僅包括軍事等安全核心價值之傳統面向，以及經濟安全與文明等非傳統面向，其他如環境安全等問題則不在探討之內。而「戰略」一詞則係採取「總體戰略」中之意涵。

本論文主要是使用歷史分析法，由所蒐集到文獻檢討著手，並在該些研究成果上，繼續加以深入的分析闡述。而所使用之資料，除採集中、外學者之相關著作及赴東南亞進行訪談外，並利用參與有關的國際學術研討會，以利蒐集相關資料。此外，東協秘書處設在雅加達之網站，亦是獲得東協文件之主要來源。

冷戰時期，東南亞區域秩序主要是由美國與蘇聯所領導的東西方全球對抗局勢所規範。冷戰結束，兩極格局崩解，東南亞區域權力互動關係轉為多元權力型態，有關區域秩序形成的權力互動關係議題亦由冷戰時期的軍事安全，轉化為南沙群島主權爭端、台海兩岸情勢、民主與人權理念之攻防、多元主義區域安全機制，以及經濟安全等議題。此一發展趨勢導致中共與東協的安全戰略關係呈現既合作又衝突之複雜面貌。

爰就此一情勢，本論文提出七項研究命題，並據以訂定全文的分析架構，最後獲致七項研究結論如次。

一、古典現實主義論點相當能反映後冷戰時期中共在東南亞之戰略目標，而自由主義對中共所採行之政策則具有相當之解釋力。

二、東協與中共安全戰略目標相違，東協不致對中共採取靠攏戰略。

三、中共未能取代美國、日本在東南亞之軍經地位，難以恢復在東南亞之主導地位。

四、東協即使是向中共讓步，而不尋求美國來牽制中共，勢難以成功地推動對中共的「建設性接觸政策」。

五、東協國家在解決南沙問題態度分歧，未能形成堅強的集體立場，致使南沙問題的解決途徑滑向中共；而南沙問題亦不致影響中共與東協整體合作關係之進展。

六、台灣議題成為制約中共在南沙主權爭端進行專斷作為之最主要因素。

七、台海現狀符合東協國家利益，東協要凸顯其在區域之角色，必須加強對中共施壓，促使中共不以武力改變台海形勢現狀。

This thesis is mainly to explore the security strategic relationship between the PRC and ASEAN in the post-Cold war era. In accordance to the theory of realism, the thesis is to analyse the PRC’s security strategy as a nation. In terms of Southeast Asia, foucs has been put on ASEAN. However ASEAN countries’ view on integrated issues are sometimes divided, then continue on the mainstreams of these countries. As for the scope of this paper, it will focus on traditional value of military security, and also economy security and related non-traditional aspects civilization issues. As for issues such as environmental security, etc., will not be included in the content. And the conception of “strategy” used in the thesis is original from “total strategy.”

In this essay I mainly aim to achieve my exploration through historical approach, such as depending on some valuable articles and research papers which focus on this field. On the other hand, I have attended many seminars and conferences in which I really learned a lot and they are conducive to my achievement on this essay as well. In addition, the web-site of ASEAN Secretariat also helps me to obtain archives concerning the Organization.

During the Cold War era, the regional order of the Southeast Asia was dominated by two major groups led by the U.S. and the Soviet Union. After Cold War, this bipolar structure collapsed, and made the regional power structure shifted to multi-polar. Therefore, the major concerns in that area have transferred to territory disputes in South China sea, the Taiwan Strait situation, the democracy and human right issues, the multilateralism regional security mechanism and economic security, and so on. This situation, in turn made the relations between the PRC and ASEAN cooperate even closer on the other hand brought wider conflicts.

According to the situation, there are seven hypotheses proposed in this thesis, which I use to framework my analysis. The findings are as follows:

1. The theory of classical realism relatively reflects the PRC’s Southeast Asian strategic goal in the post-Cold War era. On the other hand, liberalism provides a better rationale for the policies adopted by the PRC.

2. ASEAN’s security strategic goals are contradictory to those of the PRC, therefore, it is not likely to bandwagon the PRC.

3. The PRC will not be able to replace the U.S. and Japan’s military and economic superiority in Southeast Asia, which used to be under clouts of ancient China empire.

4. If ASEAN only makes concession to the PRC and makes no efforts to seek the US help for counter-balance Beijing, its “Constructive Engagement”policy toward Beijing will still not be successful.

5. ASEAN countries’views on solving the South China Sea issue are divided, no highly collective stance has been reached so far. Therefore, it seems that the way of Beijing’s resolution on the issue is receiving more momentum. Generally speaking, the South China Sea dispute will not affect the cooperation and relations between the PRC and ASEAN.

6. Taiwan issue is the key factor to keep the PRC from imposing assertive measures in the South China Sea disputes.

7. The status quo of the Taiwan Strait goes in line with the interests of ASEAN countries. In order to make prominent its role in the region, ASEAN must continue to insert pressure on Beijing, so as to prevent the PRC from changing the current situation over the Taiwan Strait by force.