2025年川普政府的全面關稅與聯準會干預、債務僵局及極端地緣政治言論等疊加衝擊，嚴重動搖了美國公債作為終極安全資產之地位。名目公債（Nominal Treasury）因具備高流動性及危機時期的終極避險特質，享有獨特的「便利性收益（Convenience yield）」。當美國政策不確定性升溫，市場疑慮將直接侵蝕此一安全溢酬。本研究以川普第二任期首年為樣本，以TIPS-Treasury利差衡量名目公債之便利性收益，並運用DCC-GARCH模型與虛擬變數迴歸，分析四類政策衝擊（關稅、聯準會獨立性、債務協商、地緣政治）之高頻動態與傳導效果。
實證結果揭示五項核心發現：第一，便利性收益期限結構呈現長降短升至全線下跌之非對稱演變。第二，單一關稅衝擊雖驅動避險需求，但多重異質衝擊同步疊加卻反噬美債之安全溢酬。第三，不確定性常態化下市場出現「適應性疲乏」，單次事件之避險反應遞減，惟結構性折價持續累積。第四，黃金具備條件性避險功能，急性衝擊期承接美債失靈之外溢資金，緩和期則與公債同向吸納避險需求。第五，四類衝擊傳導路徑存在系統性差異：關稅衝擊呈跨期限非對稱效果，債務協商衝擊兼具長端水準上升與中長端即時下滑之雙重特徵，地緣政治衝擊則主要體現於長端便利性收益之當日即時下滑。

The 2025 Trump administration's sweeping tariffs and political shocks—threats to Fed independence, debt standoffs, and geopolitical rhetoric—have cast doubt on U.S. Treasuries as the ultimate safe asset. Nominal Treasuries command a unique "convenience yield" by virtue of their superior liquidity and crisis-time safe-haven role. When policy uncertainty intensifies, such doubts directly erode this safety premium.
Using TIPS-Treasury spreads to measure convenience yields and employing a DCC-GARCH model alongside dummy variable regressions, we analyze covariance dynamics and transmission effects across four shock categories during the first year of President Trump's second term in office.
We document five main findings. First, the convenience yield term structure reveals structural asymmetry, shifting from short-end appreciation and long-end decline to a broad-based fall. Second, isolated tariff shocks bolster safe-haven demand, while simultaneous heterogeneous shocks undermine the Treasury safety premium. Third, markets exhibit adaptation fatigue as uncertainty normalizes, with decaying event-level hedging responses alongside persistent structural erosion. Fourth, gold acts as a conditional safe haven, absorbing flows when Treasuries fail during acute shock periods but co-hedging alongside Treasuries during easing phases. Fifth, the four shock categories exhibit systematically distinct transmission channels: tariff shocks produce asymmetric cross-maturity repricing; debt negotiation shocks drive same-day declines at intermediate and long maturities; geopolitical shocks target long-end yields.

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