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研究生: 陳槐廷
Chen, Huai-Ting
論文名稱: P2P借貸中借款人特徵與貸款表現關係之實證研究:以Lending Club和機器學習方法為例
An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Borrower Characteristics and Loan Performance in Peer-to-Peer Lending: Evidence from Lending Club and Machine Learning Techniques
指導教授: 林士貴
Lin, Shih-Kuei
翁久幸
Weng, Chiu-Hsing
口試委員: 銀慶剛
Ing, Ching-Kang
俞淑惠
Yu, Shu-Hui
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 統計學系
Department of Statistics
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 28
中文關鍵詞: P2P 借貸平台貸款目的貸款率違約狀態機器學習
外文關鍵詞: P2P platform, Purpose, Funded Ratio, Loan Status, Machine Learning
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  • 本研究採用 P2P 平台的資料,相較於過往的文獻僅討論小型企業貸款,本研究將全面探討各種貸款目的下的貸款表現,並從借款者和投資者兩種不同角度進行分析,這包括債務整合、小型企業貸款以及信用卡等貸款類型,最後也透過機器學習的方法建構違約及貸款率模型。P2P 借貸平台中的借款者和投資者方面的重要變數包括借款金額、工作年限、年收入、債務收入比、循環信貸餘額等,透過提高借款人的信用特徵和降低投資者的風險意識,可以促進借款人的貸款通過率,並增加投資者對借款人的信任程度,在特定貸款目的(如教育、婚禮等)下,借款金額可能較低,因為這些目的不具備賺錢的能力,可能會增加投資者的風險意識,最後在預測貸款率及違約狀態模型中,XGBoost 表現最佳。


    This study utilizes data from a P2P platform. In comparison to previous literature that solely focused on small business loans, this research comprehensively discusses the loan performance across various loan purposes, exploring them from both borrower and investor perspectives. This includes different types of loans such as debt consolidation, small business loans, credit card loans, and more. Additionally, machine learning methods are employed to construct Loan Status and Funded Ratio models. Key variables from the borrower and investor aspects in the P2P lending platform include loan amount, years of employment, annual income, debt-to-income ratio, revolving credit balance, among others.By enhancing the credit characteristics of borrowers and reducing investors’ risk perceptions, it is possible to promote higher loan approval rates for borrowers and increase investors’ trust in borrowers. For specific loan purposes, such as education or weddings, the loan amounts may be lower as these purposes may not have revenue-generating potential, which could raise investors’ risk awareness.Finally, in predicting loan rates and default status models, XGBoost outperformed other methods.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第二章 文獻回顧 3
    第三章 研究方法 6
    第一節 邏輯斯迴歸 6
    第二節 決策樹 7
    第三節 隨機森林 7
    第四節 LGBM 8
    第五節 XGBoost 9
    第四章 實證結果 11
    第一節 資料描述及資料處理 11
    第二節 借款者方面 14
    2.1 各貸款目的下對於貸款率之迴歸分析 14
    2.2 借款者在貸款率下實證分析 16
    第三節 投資者方面 18
    3.1 各貸款目的下對於貸款狀態之邏輯斯迴歸分析 18
    3.2 投資者在貸款狀態下實證分析 21
    第五章 結論及未來展望 24
    第一節 結論 24
    第二節 未來展望 25
    附錄 A 26
    參考文獻 27

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    Chen, T. and Guestrin, C. (2016). Xgboost: A scalable tree boosting system. In Proceedings of the 22nd acm sigkdd international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 785–794.
    Han, J.-T., Chen, Q., Liu, J.-G., Luo, X.-L., and Fan, W. (2018). The persuasion of borrowers’voluntary information in peer to peer lending: An empirical study based on elaboration likelihood model. Computers in Human Behavior, 78:200–214.
    Jin, Y. and Zhu, Y. (2015). A data-driven approach to predict default risk of loan for online peer-to-peer (p2p) lending. In 2015 Fifth international conference on communication systems and network technologies, pages 609–613. IEEE.
    Ke, G., Meng, Q., Finley, T., Wang, T., Chen, W., Ma, W., Ye, Q., and Liu, T.-Y. (2017).Lightgbm: A highly efficient gradient boosting decision tree. Advances in neural information processing systems, 30.
    Lin, X., Li, X., and Zheng, Z. (2017). Evaluating borrower’s default risk in peer-to-peerlending: evidence from a lending platform in china. Applied Economics, 49(35):3538–3545.
    Ma, X., Sha, J., Wang, D., Yu, Y., Yang, Q., and Niu, X. (2018). Study on a prediction of p2p network loan default based on the machine learning lightgbm and xgboost algorithms according to different high dimensional data cleaning. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications, 31:24–39.
    Nowak, A., Ross, A., and Yencha, C. (2018). Small business borrowing and peer-to-peer lending: Evidence from lending club. Contemporary Economic Policy, 36(2):318–336.
    Serrano-Cinca, C., Gutiérrez-Nieto, B., and López-Palacios, L. (2015). Determinants of default in p2p lending. PloS one, 10(10):e0139427.
    Zhou, J., Li, W., Wang, J., Ding, S., and Xia, C. (2019). Default prediction in p2p lending from high-dimensional data based on machine learning. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 534:122370.

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