企業發生財務危機，不僅使其經營陷入生死關頭之掙扎，更影響眾多投資人、債權人的利益，對於整個經濟環境亦造成一定的衝擊。因此，如何提早察覺企業之危機，以減少社會成本，實值得我們深入研究。

本研究主要目的為評估現金流量表揭露之資訊，於預測企業財務危機的有用性。本研究欲探討現金流量資訊是否為預測企業財務危機的良好指標，於建構企業財務危機預警模式之際，加入現金流量的財務指標是否會比僅以傳統財務比率建立之預警模式，更具預測能力。

本研究採用配對樣本設計，在我國上市公司中共選取了35家危機公司與68家正常公司。並利用Logit迴歸分析分別建立現金流量模式、應計財務模式與綜合模式，得到以下結論：

一、在財務危機發生之前一至三年，本研究所使用的應計基礎財務比率並非皆適合用來區分危機公司與正常公司。

二、除了營業活動現金流量相關比率具有顯著的區別能力外，部分投資與融資活動現金流量相關比率亦提供額外的財務危機警訊。

三、現金流量比率預警模式之預測力表現不遜於應計基礎比率模式；但在應計基礎比率中加入現金流量比率，並未顯著提高模式的預測能力。

The objective of this study is to assess the usefulness of cash flow disclosures in the prediction of financial distress. This study also determines whether cash flow ratios are good indicator of financial distress and whether adding cash flow ratios in prediction model can improve the predictive ability of the model employing conventional accrual-based ratios.

Using a matched pair design, this study examines a sample of 35 distress firms along with 68 non-distress firms. Also, a logistic regression analysis is used to establish the financial distress model with and without cash flow variables respectively, in order to test the hypotheses developed by this study and to derive the conclusion.

The findings of this study are as follows.

1. During the period between 3 years to 1 year before financial distress, the accrual-based ratios used in this study aren't all good predictor in financial distress model.

2. The discriminate ability of operating cash flow data is significant. Also, the investing and financing cash flow data provide additional information in the prediction of business distress.

3. Cash flow ratios provide a superior measure for the prediction of financial distress over accrual-based ratios. However, no significant evidence shows that using cash flow ratios in conjunction with accrual-based ratios can improve the overall predictive power of accrual-based ratios alone.

中文部份
1. 王國璋，現金流量訊息之傳達-以台灣地區上市電子資訊產業為例，私立淡江大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十一年。
2. 李立行，運用現金流量預測企業財務危機之研究-以上市公司紡織業為例，私立淡江大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十六年。
3. 林君玲，企業財務危機預警資訊之研究-考慮公司監理因素，國立台灣大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十八年。
4. 林銘琇，財務危機預警模型之實證研究-以台灣地區上市公司為例，私立淡江大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十一年。
5. 邱志榮，公司營運危機之預測：財務比率與現金流量比率之比較，國立成功大學工業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十年。
6. 洪惠玲，營運現金流量對企業失敗預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十六年。
7. 徐景亮，「財務會計準則公報第十七號-現金流量表」，會計研究月刊67期，民國八十年四月，頁129-132。
8. 陳肇榮，運用財務比率預測企業財務危機之實證研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所未出版博士論文，民國七十二年。
9. 梁清源，財務危機判斷模式之探討-公司財務比率與相對財務比率判斷能力之比較研究，私立淡江大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十一年。
10. 路奎琛，以淨營運現金流量預測企業失敗之實證研究，國立交通大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年。
11. 彭昭英，SAS與統計分析，儒林圖書公司出版，民國八十七年一月九版。
12. 黃瓊華，現金流量與傳統財務比率預測企業失敗之研究，私立中華工學院工業工程管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十四年。
13. 謝國松，「現金流量分析方法簡介-現金流量之預測及財務比率分析」，會計研究月刊119期，民國八十四年八月，頁122-128。
14. 儲蕙文，我國上市公司財務預警制度之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十五年。
英文部份
1. Altman, E. I., R. G. Haldman, and P. Narayanan, "ZETA Analysis: A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations", Journal of Banking and Finance (1977): 29-54.
2. Beaver, William H., "Financial Ratio as Predictors of Failure", Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Study, Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research (1966): 71-111.
3. Bahnson, Paul R. and Michael E. Bradury, "The Sensitivity of Failure Prediction Models to Alternative Definitions of Failure", Advances in Accounting (1992): 255-275.
4. Carslaw, Charles A. and John R. Mills, "Developing Ratios for Effective Cash Flow Statement Analysis", Journal of Accountancy (Nov. 1991): 63-70.
5. Cary, N. C., Logistic Regression Examples: Using the SAS System, 1st edition, SAS Institute, 1995.
6. Casey, C. J., and N. J. Bartczak, "Cash Flow-It's not the Bottom Line", Harvard Business Review (July/August 1985): 384-401.
7. Deakin, E. B., "A Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure", Journal of Accounting Research (1972): 167-179.
8. Gentry, J. A., P. Newbold, and D. T. Whitford, "Funds Flow Component, Financial Ratio, and Bankruptcy", Journal of Business Finance and Accounting (1987): 595-605.
9. Gombola, M. J., and J. E. Ketz, "A Note on Cash Flow and Classification Pattern of Financial Ratios", The Accounting Review (1983): 105-114.
10. Lachenbruch, P. A., "An Almost Unbiased Method of Obtaining Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Misclassification in Discriminant Analysis", Biometrics (December 1967): 639-645.
11. Largay, J. A., and C. P. Stickney, "Cash Flows, Ratio Analysis and W. T. Grant Bankruptcy", Financial Analysts Journal (July/August 1980): 50-54.
12. Lau, A. H., and H. Lau., "Cash Flow Variables as Predictors of Financial Distress", Working Paper, Oklahoma State University.
13. Miekle, David E. and Don E. Giacomino, "Ratio Analysis Using the New Statement of Cash Flows", Corporate Accounting (Winter 1988): 10-17.
14. Miekle, David E. and Don E. Giacomino, "Cash Flows: Another Approach to Ratio Analysis", Journal of Accountancy (March 1993): 55-58.
15. Mills, John R. and Jeanne H. Yamamura, "The Power of Cash Flow Ratios", Journal of Accountancy (Oct. 1998): 53-61.
16. Neill, John D., Thomas F. Schaefer, Paul R. Bahnson and Michael E. Bradury, "The Usefulness of Cash Flow Data: A Review and Synthesis", Journal of Accounting Literature (1991): 117-149.
17. Rujoub, Mohamed A., Doris M. Cook and Leon E. Hay, "Using Cash Flow Ratios to Predict Business Failures", Journal of Managerial Issues (Spring 1995): 75-90.
18. Sharma, S and V. Mahauan, "Early Warning Indictor of Business Failure", Journal of Business Finance and Accounting (1980): 56-85.
19. Ward, Terry J. and Benjamin P. Foster, "Using Cash Flow Trend to Identify Risks of Bankruptcy", The CPA Journal (Sep. 1997): 60-61.
20. Ward, Terry J., "Using Information from the Statement of Cash Flows to Predict Insolvency", Journal of Commercial Lending (March 1995): 29-36.
21. _________, "Is the Scaling Measure Used for Cash Flow Important in Predicting Financially Distressed Firms", Journal of Applied Business Research (Fall 1993): 134-140.
22. _________, "Cash Flow Information and the Prediction of Financial Distressed Mining, Oil and Gas Firms: A Comparative Study", Journal of Applied Business Research (1994): 78-86.
23. Zeller, Thomas L. and Raymond E. Figlewicz, "New Investing and Financing Activity ratios from the Statement of Cash Flows Enhance Traditional Raito Analysis in Assessing Future Cash Flows", The Mid-Atlantic Journal of Business (Winter 1990): 49-59.