跳到主要內容

簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 周曉萍
論文名稱: 期貨巿場效率性之再探討-季節性單根檢定
指導教授: 杜化宇教授
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 財務管理學系
Department of Finance
論文出版年: 2003
畢業學年度: 91
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 63
中文關鍵詞: 季節性單根ADF單根檢定效率巿場
外文關鍵詞: HEGY
相關次數: 點閱:256下載:27
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 本研究利用ADF單根檢定以及新觀點的季節性單根檢定做為分析工具,去檢測期貨巿場與現貨巿場是否存在一長期均衡關係。研究對象共有十種,分別為:能源期貨-輕原油、煤油,外匯期貨-日圓、瑞士法郎(對美元),短期利率期貨-一個月期倫敦銀行拆款利率、90天期美國國庫券,公債期貨-2年的美國中期公債、15至30年的美國長期公債,S&P500指數期貨,金屬期貨-高等級銅期貨。
    過去檢測長期均衡關係所使用的單根檢定觀點假設其他頻率的單根並不存在,因此當拒絕虛無假設時,我們無法確知拒絕的原因是資料真的沒有單根的存在,抑或是資料具有季節性現象,因此納入季節性考量的HEGY檢定法,將是比較一般化的檢定方法,而且因為HEGY能夠同時檢定季節性及某些非季節性單根的存在與否,而不必假設所有季節性頻率的單根皆同時存在,所以ADF單根檢定法可視為HEGY季節性單根檢定法之特例,因此一般來說,HEGY檢定法之檢定力較ADF單根檢定法為高。
    而本文實證結果亦證明,ADF單根檢定法的確無法檢定出季節性單根的有無,當季節性因素存在時,使用ADF單根檢定將可能導致錯誤的推論。


    目 錄

    第壹章 緒論 1
    第一節 、研究動機與目的 1
    第二節 、研究架構 3
    第貳章 理論基礎與文獻回顧 5
    第一節 、期貨巿場效率理論 5
    第二節 、季節性(Seasonality) 9
    第三節 、文獻回顧 11
    第參章 研究方法 22
    第一節 、效率巿場迴歸式 22
    第二節 、單根檢定 24
    第三節 、季節性單根檢定 27
    第肆章 實證結果分析 34
    第一節 、資料選取說明 34
    第二節 、實證結果 39
    第伍章 結論與建議 56
    第一節 、結論 56
    第二節 、研究限制 58
    第三節 、後續研究建議 59

    表 次

    表4-1 研究標的期貨、研究期間、樣本數 35
    表4-2 ADF單根檢定 40
    表4-3 ADF單根檢定 41
    表4-4 ADF單根檢定 42
    表4-5 ADF單根檢定 43
    表4-6 HEGY檢定結果--季資料 46
    表4-7 HEGY檢定結果--季資料 47
    表4-8 HEGY檢定結果--季資料 48
    表4-9 HEGY檢定結果--季資料 49
    表4-10 HEGY檢定結果—月資料 52
    表4-11 HEGY檢定結果—月資料 53
    表4-12 HEGY檢定結果—月資料 54
    表4-13 HEGY檢定結果—月資料 55

    Baillie, R. T., R. E. Lippens and P. C. McMahon (1983), “Testing rational expectations and efficiency in the foreign exchange market”, Econometrica, 51, 553-563.

    Baillie, R. T. and P. McMahon (1989), The foreign exchange market: theory and econometric evidence, New York, NY: Cambridge Univ. Press.

    Beaulieu, J. J. and J. A. Miron (1993), “Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data”, Journal of Econometrics, 55, 305-328.

    Beck, S. E. (1994), “Cointegration and market efficiency in commodities futures markets”, Applied Economics, 26, 249-257.

    Bilson, J. F. O. (1981), “The speculative efficiency hypothesis”, Journal of Business, 54, 435-451.

    Brenner, R. J., and Kroner, K. F. (1995), “Arbitrage, cointegration, and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 30, 23-42.

    Chowdhury, A. R. (1991), “Futures market efficiency: evidence form cointegration tests”, The Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 577-589.

    Crowder, W. J., and Hamed, A. (1993), “A cointegration test for oil futures market efficiency”, The Journal of Futures Markets, 13, 933-941.

    Darne O. and Diebolt C. (2002), “A note on seasonal unit root tests”, Quality&Quantity, 36, 305-310.

    Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1979), “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.

    Edwards, S. (1983), “Foreign exchange rates, expectations and new information”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 11, 321-336.
    Engle, Robert F. and Clive W. J. Granger (1987), “Co-integration and error correction:
    representation, estimation and testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251–276.

    Fama E. F.(1970),”Efficiency capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work”, The Journal of Finance, 25, 383-417.

    Fuller, W. A. (1976), Introduction to statistical time series, New York: Wiley.

    Franses, P. H. and B. Hobijn (1997), “Critical value for unit root tests in seasonal time series”, Journal of Applied Statistics, 24, 25-47.

    Franses, P. H., and T. J. Vogelsang (1998), “On seasonal cycles, unit roots, and mean shifts”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 231-240.

    Frenkel, J. A. (1981), “Flexible exchange rates, prices, and the role of ‘News’: lessons form the 1970’s”, Journal of Political Economy, 89, 665-705.

    Ghysels, E. (1990), “Unit root tests and the statistics pitfalls of seasonal adjustment: the case of US postwar real gross national product”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 8, 145-152.

    Ghysels E., Lee. H. S. and Noh. J. (1994), “Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series: some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation”, Journal of Econometrics, 62, 415-442.

    Gibson, R., and Schwartz, E. S. (1990), “Stochastic convenience yield and the pricing of oil contingent claims”, Journal of Finance, 45, 959-976.

    Girma P. B. and Paulson A.S. (1998), “Seasonality in petroleum futures spreads”, The Journal of Futures Markets, 18, 581-598.

    Granger, Clive W. J. (1981), “Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification”, Journal of Econometrics, 16, 121–130.

    Hakkio C. S. (1981), “Expectations and the forward exchange rate”, International Economic Review, 22, 663-678.

    Hamori, S. and A. Tokihisa (2002), “Some international evidence on the seasonality of stock prices”, International Journal of Business and Economics, 1, 79-86.

    Hansen L. P. and Hodrick R.J. (1980), “Forward exchange rates as optimal predictors of futures spot rates”, Journal of Political Economy, 88, 829-853.

    Hein, S. E., Ma, C. K., and MacDonald, S. S. (1990), “Testing unbiasedness in futures market: a clarification”, The Journal of Futures Markets, 10, 555-562.

    Hodrick R. J. and S. Srivastava (1986), “The covariation of risk premium and expected future spot exchange rates”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 5, S5-S22.

    Hylleberg S., Engle R. F. and Granger C. W. J. and Yoo B. S.(1990), “Seasonal integration and cointegration”, Journal of Econometrics, 44, 215-238.

    Johansen, Soren (1988), “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–254.

    Lai, K. S. and M. Lai (1991), “A cointegration test for market efficiency”, The Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 567-575.

    Longworth, D. (1981), “Testing the efficiency of the Canadian Dollar – U.S. exchange market under the assumption of no risk premium”, Journal of Finance, 36, 43-49.

    Kellard N., Newbold P., Rayner T. and Ennew C. (1999), “The relative efficiency of commodity futures markets”, The Journal of Futures Markets, 19, 413-432.

    Mckenzie, A. M. and M. T. Holt (2002), “Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets”, Applied Economics, 34, 1519-1532.

    Nelson, Charles R. and Charles I. Plosser (1982), “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 139–162.

    Osborn, D. R., Chui, A. P. L., Smith, J. P. and Birchenhall, C. R. (1988), “Seasonality and the order of integration for consumption”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 50, 361-377.
    Peiro, A. (1994), “Daily seasonality in stock returns-further international evidence”, Economics Letters, 45, 227-232.

    Rodrigues, Paulo M. M. (2000), “A note on the application of the DF test to seasonal data”, Statistics & Probability Letters, 47, 171-175.

    Sarantis, N. and C. Stewart (1993), “Seasonality, cointegration and the long-run purchasing power parity: evidence for sterling exchange rates”, Applied Economics, 25, 243-250.

    QR CODE
    :::