本文的目的，在探討價格預期與通貨膨脹的關係。傳統的通貨膨脹理論，將通貨膨脹的原因，截然劃分為需求拉引與成本推動，這種二分法並不適當，所以我們放棄這種傳統的分析方式。首先從個體經濟理論出發，假定在一不完全競爭的經濟體系下，有一代表性廠商（representative firm)，其目標在求利潤極大化，則我們可以設定利潤函數
F=p·q-w1=（P-w/g）q，q表實質產出，g表生產力，w表工資率。
假定預期需求函數為該廠商產品價格與其所預期其他廠商所訂價格（P^e）的零次齊次函數（homogeneous function of degree zero)，則預期需求函數q=b-c（p⁄P^e ）最後我們得到
△P(t)=(w(t-1))/(g(t)P(t-1)) {ẇ(t)-Ṗ^e(t)-(P^e (t))/(P^e (t-1))g(t)}+ (P^e (t))/(p(t-1)) (g(t-1))/c△1(t) +(P^e (t))/(P^e (t-1)) (1(t)g(t-1))/c
ġ(t)+{ Ṗ^e(t)-Ṗ(t-1)}
我們可將廠商最適價格上漲率△P(t)變動的原因歸納為(1)成本項(2)需求項(3)生產力項(4)預期項，我們發現如果該廠商所預期的物價上漲率超過上期的實際上漲率，則將使其最適價格上漲率增加。
由該代表性廠商的最適訂價原則，我們可以確定價格預期與物價上漲有正關係(positive relationship)。從總體經濟的觀點來看，貨幣擴張率與物價上漲率亦有正關係，而物價上漲所引起的價格預期對通貨膨脹的影響是否會使經濟體系不穩定呢？我們設定—唯貨幣論模型，包括(1)菲力浦曲線模型(Phillips curve model)(2)貨幣需求函數(3)價格預期形式，p=1/P dP/dt=a log（Y⁄Y^* ）+π m=p+y-α_π^c π ̇=β(p-π)=dπ/dt式中P為物價水準，t表時間，a， α，β為常數（大於零），Y為所得水準，其成長率為y，
m為貨幣擴張率， Y^*為所得的趨勢值，π為預期物價上漲率，則模型的穩定條件為αβ<1
，與Cagan的穩定條件同。
再仿照Keynes的看法，假定大衆對物價水準有長期預期，假定對長期平均通貨膨脹率的調整為 π ̇_n=γ(p-π_n) γ>0 則π ̇=δ(π_n-p)+β(p-π)，δ>0 β>0
模型的穩定條件為（Routh - Hurwitz）
C_1=γ+δ+aαδ+a(1-αβ)>0
C_2=a(γ+β-γαβ)
C_1‧C_2>γβa
從上三式可知αβ>1時，模型可能產生不穩定，但它並非不穩定的充分或必要條件。
在貨幣擴張率增加的瞬間(t_0)時，因為π ̇_n (t_0)>0，π(t_0)<0，故我們可知在貨幣擴張引起通貨膨脹的初期，實質貨幣餘額將先上升而後下降。
最後我們考慮三種貨幣政策(1)當實際所得成長率大於趨勢成長率，卽降低貨幣擴張率(2)實際物價上漲率與貨幣擴張率成反向變動(3)當預期通貨膨脹率增加時，卽降低貨幣擴張率，卽
(1) m=m_0-v(y-y^*) v>0
(2) m=m_0-up u>0
(3) m=m_0-zπ z>0
我們發現第(1)種政策的穩定條件為1>αβ，第(2)種貨幣政策的穩定條件為u>aα-1，這表示只要反饋係數（feedback coefficient）夠大，這種貨幣政策卽有效；第(3)種貨幣政策則必能滿足穩定條件。
從台灣的實證資料中，我們發現若干事實
(1)貨幣擴張率增加1%，物價上漲率僅增加0.33％左右。
(2)民國62年第Ⅱ季到63年第Ⅱ季，物價上漲極烈，實質貨幣餘額先上升後下降。
(3)台灣的通貨膨脹並非自發性的，所以控制通貨膨脹首應控制貨幣供給成長率。

(一) 中文部份
(1)李庸三：「台灣物價變動與價格預期」，收編於當前台灣物價問題研討會（台北：中央研究院經濟研究所，民國六十二年），93〜113頁。
(2)林鐘雄：當代貨幣理論與政策（台北：三民書局，民國六十二年。
(3)陸民仁：「由經濟成長的分配效果論物價的長期上漲」，收編於當前物價問題研討會（台北：中央研究院經濟研究所，民國六十二年）,15〜31頁。
(4)高翠蓮：輸入性通貨膨脹之研究，台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文（台北，未出版，民國六十四年）
(5)陳文郎：膨脹融通與膨脹稅，台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文（台北，未出版，民國六十七年）。
(6)陳昭南：「開放程度遞增國家的物價變動試析」，自由中國之工業，第42卷（台北：行政院經濟設計委員會，民國六十四年，6-10頁，收編於邱正雄，台灣貨幣與金融論文集（台北：聯經出版事業公司，民國六十四年）。
(7)陳勝賢：台灣物價與貿易，貨幣數量、政府支出之研究政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文（台北，未出版，民國六十七年）。
(8)劉大中等六院士：「今後台灣財經政策的研討」，收編於當前台灣經濟問題座談會」（台北：中央研究院經濟研究所，民國六十三年）

(二)英文部份
(9) Bailey, M.J., National Income and the Price Level, 2nd. ed., McGraw-Hill Inc., N.Y.(1972), ch.4.
(10)Barro, R.J., “Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.2(1976), pp.1-32.
(11)Barro, R.J. and H.I. Grossman, Money, Employment and Inflation, Cambridge U. P. (1976).
(12) Bergstrom, A.R.(ed.), Stability and Inflation, Wiley,. N.Y. ( 1978).
(13) Black, J, ”A Dynamic Model of the Quantity Theory” in parkin, M. and A.R. Nobay (eds.) Current Economic Problem, Cambridge U.P. (1974).
(14) Burmeister, E. and S.J. Turncvsky, ”The Specification of Adaptive Expectations in continuous Time Dynamic Economic Models, ” Econometrica, Vol.44 (1976), pp.879-905.
(15) Burmeister, B. and S.J. Turncvsky, “Price Expectations, disequilibrium Adjustments and Macroeconomic price Stability,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. d7(1978), pp.287-311.
(16) Cagan, P., “The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflations,” in Friedman, M,(ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1956).
(17) Claasen, E.M. and P. Salin (eds.), Recent Issues in International Monetary Economics, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam(1976).
(18) Claasen, E.M. and P. Salin (eds.), Stabilization Policies in Interdependent Economics, North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam (1972).
(19) Clower, R.W.(ed.), Monetary Theory, Penguin Modern Economic Readings (1969).
(20) Foley, D.K. and M. Sidrausky, Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Growing Economy, Macmillan, N,Y.(1971).
(21) Friedman, M., The Optimum Quantity of Money, Aldine Press, Chicago (1969).
(22) Friedman, M., “A Thecretical Framework of Monetary Analysis,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 78(1970), pp.193-238.
(23) Frisch, H., “Inflation Theory 1963-1975: A Second Generation Survey,” Journal of Economic Literature (1977).
(24) Frisch H(ed.), Inflation In Small Countries, Springer-Verlag, Berlin (1976).
(25) Gandolfo, G., Mathematical Methods and Models in Economic Dynamics, North-Holland Publishing shing Company Amsterdam (1971).
(26) Hendershott, P.H. and G. Horwich, “IS-LM as a Dynamic Framework,” in Horwich, G. and P.A. Samuelson (eds.), Trade, Stability and Macroeconomics, Academic Press, N.Y. (1974).
(27) Holzman, F.D. and M. Bronfenbrenner, “A Survey of Inflation Theory, ” American Economic Review, Vol.53 (1963), pp.593-661.
(28) Hosek, W.R. and F. Zahn, Monetary Theory, Policy and Financial Market, McGraw-Hill Inc., N.Y. (1977).
(29) Hu, The-Wel, ”Hyperinflaticn and the Dynamics of the Demand for Money in China, 1945-1949, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.79(1971). pp.186-195.
(30) Johnson, H.G. and A.R. Nobay (eds.) The Current Inflation, Macmillan, London (1971).
(31) Johnson, H.G.(ed.) Further Essay in Monetary Economics, Allan and Unwin, London (1972).
(32) Keybes, J.M, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Macmillan, London(1936), ch. 5.
(33) Kingston, G.H. and S.J. Turnovsky, “A Small Economy in an Inflationary World: Morld: Monetary and Fiscal Plicies under Fixed Exchange Retes,” The Economic Journal, Vol. 88 (1978). pp. 18-43.
(34) Knöb1, A., “Price Expectations and Actual price Behavior in Germany, I.M.F. Staff paper (1974).
(35) Laidler, D.E.W., Essays on Money and Inflation, Manchester U.P., Manchester (1975).
(36) Laidler, D.E.W. and J.M. Parkin, “Inflation- A Survey, ” The Economic Journal Vol.85
(1975), pp.741-809.
(37) Laidler D.E.W. and D.L. Purdy (eds.), Inflation and Labour Markets, Manchester U.P.,
Manchester (1976).
(38) Lucas, R.E., “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol.4 (1972), pp.103-124.
(39) Mussa, M., “On the Inherent Stability of Rationally Adaptive Expectations,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.4(1978), pp.307-313.
(40) Muth J.F., “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica, Vol. 29.(1961), pp.315-335.
(41) Parkin, M. and G, Zis (eds.), Inflation in the World Economy, Manchester U.P. Manchester (1976).
(42) Parkin, M, and M.T. Sumner (eds.), Incomes Policy and Inflation, Manchester U.P., Manchester(1977).
(43) Parkin, M. and M.T. Sumner (eds.), Inflation in the United Kingdom, Mandester U.P. (1978).
(44) Patinkin, D., Money, Interest and Prices, 2nd.ed., Harper and Row, N.Y. (1965).
(45) Phelps, “Inflation Planning Reconsidered, Economica Vol.45, pp.109-123.
(46) Phillips, A.W., “The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957,” Economica, Vol.25(1958), pp.283-299.
(47) Rodriguez, C.A., “A Simple Keysian Model of Inflation and Unemployment under Rational Expectations, Kyklos,(1978), pp.1-11.
(48) Sargent,, T.J. and N. Wallace, “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.2(1976), pp.169-183.
(49) Sargent, T.J. and N. Wallace,” Rational Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Intrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule, ” Journal of Political Economy, Vol.33(1975), pp.241-254.
(50) Seater, J.J. and A.M. Santomero, “ The Inflation-Unetnplcyment Trade-off；A Crituque of Literature,” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XVI(1978), pp.499-544.
(51) Stein, J., “Unemployment, Inflation and Monetarism,” American Economic Review (1974), pp. 867-887.
(52) Thorn, R.S. (ed.), Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd,ed. Praeger, N.Y.(1976).
(53) Jobin, J., “Inflation and Unemployment,” American Economic Review, Vol.62(1972), pp. 1-18.
(54) Trevitbick, J.A. and C. Mulvey, The Economics of Inflation, Robertson, London (1975).
(55) Turnovsky, S.J., Macroeconomic Analysis and Stabilization Policy, Combridge U.P., Combridge (1977).
(56) Turnovsky, S.J., “On the Role of Inflationary Expectations in a Short-Run Macroeconomic Model,” The Economic Journal Vol.84, (1974) pp.379-393.
(57) Turnovsky, S.J. and A. Kaspura, “An Analysis of Imported Inflation in a Short-Run Macroeconomic Model,” Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.7 (1974), pp.355.-38O