| 研究生: |
瑪麗亞 Bazhkova, Maryia |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
後蘇聯地區事實上國家的可持續性與未來(以阿布哈茲和德涅斯特河沿岸爲例) The sustainability and future of de facto states of post-sovie area (on the example of Transnistria and Abkhazia) |
| 指導教授: |
連弘宜
Lian, Hong-Yi |
| 口試委員: |
許菁芸
Xu, Jing-Yun 趙竹成 Zhao, Zhu-Cheng |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
國際事務學院 - 外交學系 Department of Diplomacy |
| 論文出版年: | 2019 |
| 畢業學年度: | 108 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 88 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 事實上國家 、冻结的冲突 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | de facto state, frozen conflict, parent state, patron state, possible scenario |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU201901252 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:283 下載:1 |
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蘇聯解體和南斯拉夫導致建立大量主權國家和分裂國家集中在大黑海地區和巴爾幹地區。後者,所謂的事實國家成為冰凍衝突的結果,這是俄羅斯對其執政能力的控制在蘇聯的最後幾年,領土被削弱,民族宗教處於休眠狀態緊張局勢演變成內部衝突。分離主義者,最終得到了俄羅斯通過停火達成了戰場上的勝利舉行了二十多年的母國。但是,圍繞的問題這些事實上的國家仍未解決,並試圖解決衝突和和解因許多因素而變得複雜,包括俄羅斯的利益和參與該地區,國家歷史記憶和人口統計資料,非能力弱勢的母國加強和國際規範和法律,主要是現狀。本論文旨在研究阿布哈茲和阿布哈茲的事實狀態。德涅斯特河沿岸,面臨的挑戰,並探討可能的情況通過調查和分析共同點以及差異。
The dissolution of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia resulted in the establishment of a great number of sovereign nations and separatist states concentrated in the greater Black Sea region and Balkans. The latter, so-called de facto states became the result of frozen conflicts that emerged as Russia’s grip over its territory weakened during the last years of the USSR and dormant ethno-religious tensions erupted into internecine conflict. Separatists, ultimately with help from Russia, were able to enshrine victories on the battlefield through ceasefires with parent states that have held for over two decades. However, the issues surrounding these de facto states remain unsettled, and attempts at conflict resolution and reconciliation have been complicated by many factors, including Russian interests and involvement in the region, national historical memory and demographics, non-ability of weak parent states to step up and international norms and laws that mostly favor the status quo. This thesis seeks to examine the de facto states of Abkhazia and Transnistria, the challenges in front of them and explore possible scenarios for the future of these entities through investigating and analyzing the common points and differences.
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Rationale of the thesis and research questions 1
1.2 Literature review 2
1.3 Methodological and theoretical scope 12
1.4 Time frame and research limitations 13
1.5 Chapter overview 15
CHAPTER 2 Background on de facto states 16
2.1.1 Definition of de facto states 16
2.1.1 The choice of terminology 16
2.1.2 The relevance of the issue of statehood and secession 18
2.1.3 Theories of secession and their limitations 20
2.1.4 Problem of recognition 22
2.1.5 Role of a patron state and influence of Great Powers 25
2.2 Unrecognized states of post-Soviet area 28
2.2.1 General information on de facto states of post-Soviet area 28
2.2.2 Special features of post-Soviet de facto states 31
2.3 Chapter conclusion 33
CHAPTER 3 Case selection 35
3.1 Transnistria's case 35
3.1.1 Origins 35
3.1.2 Conflict 39
3.1.3 Current situation 40
3.1.4 Russia’s and other players’ involvement 42
3.1.5 Attempts at reconciliation 46
3.2 Abkhazia's case 47
3.2.1 Origins 47
3.2.2 Conflict 49
3.2.3 Current situation 50
3.2.4 Russia’s and other players’ involvement 51
3.2.5 Attempts at reconciliation 54
3.3 Chapter conclusion 55
CHAPTER 4 Prospects for the future 61
4.1 The prospects of a sustainable conflict settlement for Transnistria 61
4.1.1 Conflict participants 61
4.1.2 Significant factors affecting the situation 62
4.1.3 Possible scenarios of conflict resolution 64
4.2 The prospects of a sustainable conflict settlement for Abkhazia 67
4.2.1 Conflict participants 67
4.2.2 Significant factors affecting the situation 68
4.2.3 Possible scenarios of conflict resolution 70
4.3 Chapter conclusion 72
CHAPTER 5 Conclusion 76
BIBLIOGRAPHY 81
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