| 研究生: |
翁晟睿 Wong, Sheng-Ruei |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
藉由風險溢酬主成分分析強化臺灣股票市場潛在因子與弱因子的量化與捕捉 On the Quantification and Identification of Latent and Weak Factors in the Taiwan Stock Market via Risk Premium Principal Component Analysis |
| 指導教授: | 江彌修 |
| 口試委員: |
徐之強
許育進 盧佳琪 詹育儒 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 79 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 風險溢酬主成分分析 、潛在因子模型 、弱因子 、資產定價 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Risk-Premium PCA, Latent Factor Model, Weak Factors, Asset Pricing |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:49 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
本研究以風險溢酬主成分分析法(Risk-Premium PCA, RP-PCA)探索臺灣股票市場的潛在定價因子結構,並與標準主成分分析法(PCA)及Fama and French (2018) 六因子模型進行系統性比較。RP-PCA 是 Lettau and Pelger(2020)提出的廣義 PCA 估計框架,透過在標準 PCA 目標函數中引入橫斷面定價誤差懲罰項,使因子萃取同時利用資產報酬的一階動差(橫斷面均值)與二階動差(共變異)資訊,從理論上克服了標準 PCA 忽略橫斷面均值資訊的根本局限,尤其能有效識別具有高 Sharpe Ratio 但共變異貢獻有限的弱因子。實證結果顯示,RP-PCA 在橫斷面定價效率、定價誤差與時間序列解釋力三個維度上均優於或等同於 PCA 與 Fama-French 六因子模型,且 RP-PCA 能以更少的因子個數達到 PCA 需更多因子方能實現的同等樣本外定價表現,展現顯著的因子利用效率優勢。此外,RP-PCA 萃取的因子雖與 PCA 萃取的因子具有高度相似的風險結構,但 RP-PCA 因子在控制 PCA 因子風險暴露後仍存在顯著的正向未解釋橫斷面溢酬,表明 RP-PCA 透過橫斷面均值最佳化,在相似的風險暴露結構上系統性地提取了更高的期望報酬,此為 RP-PCA 相對於 PCA 最核心的定價優勢所在。同時,RP-PCA 因子對 Fama-French 六因子亦具有顯著的正向未解釋溢酬,且兩者的風險結構重疊程度相對有限,確認 RP-PCA 能從臺灣市場數據中萃取 Fama-French 框架所無法定價的獨特橫斷面溢酬來源。另一方面,在實際投資應用上,以 RP-PCA 因子為基礎的量化選股策略在樣本外期間實現了優於 PCA 與 Fama-French 策略的風險調整後報酬,亦顯著優於大盤與臺灣 50 指數等被動投資基準。以統計套利方法利用 RP-PCA 與 PCA 因子的線性關係設計市場中性策略,在對沖系統性風險後,各策略樣本外均實現持續穩定的正向累積報酬,確認 RP-PCA 相對於 PCA 的額外定價資訊可轉化為可持續的統計套利收益。
This study employs Risk-Premium Principal Component Analysis (RP-PCA), proposed by Lettau and Pelger (2020), to identify latent pricing factors in the Taiwan stock market and conducts a systematic comparison with standard Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Fama and French (2018) six-factor model. RP-PCA extends the standard PCA objective function by incorporating a penalty on cross-sectional pricing errors, enabling factor extraction to simultaneously exploit both first-moment (cross-sectional mean returns) and second-moment (covariance structure) information. This design theoretically overcomes the fundamental limitation of standard PCA—its complete neglect of cross-sectional mean information—and is particularly effective at identifying high-Sharpe-ratio weak factors that standard PCA may not detect. Empirical results demonstrate that RP-PCA outperforms both PCA and the Fama-French six-factor model across all dimensions of model fit—cross-sectional pricing efficiency, pricing errors, and time-series explanatory power—while achieving comparable out-of-sample pricing performance with fewer factors than PCA, reflecting a substantial advantage in factor utilization efficiency. Analysis further reveals that although RP-PCA factors share a highly similar risk structure with PCA factors, RP-PCA factors retain significant positive unexplained cross-sectional premia after controlling for PCA factor exposures. This finding shows that RP-PCA systematically extracts higher expected returns from essentially the same risk structure through cross-sectional mean optimization, which constitutes the core pricing advantage of RP-PCA over PCA. Moreover, RP-PCA factors exhibit significant incremental pricing information relative to the Fama-French framework, with limited risk structure overlap, confirming that RP-PCA successfully identifies cross-sectional return sources in the Taiwan market that Fama-French factors cannot price. In addition, the RP-PCA-based quantitative stock selection strategy achieves superior risk-adjusted returns relative to both PCA and Fama-French strategies in out-of-sample periods. Market-neutral statistical arbitrage strategies designed to exploit the near-linear relationship between RP-PCA and PCA factors further generate persistently positive out-of-sample cumulative returns across all factor pairs after hedging systematic risks, validating that RP-PCA's incremental pricing information translates into sustainable statistical arbitrage profits.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 傳統定價模型與因子投資組合 4
第二節 套利定價理論與多因子模型 4
第三節 統計因子模型與潛在因子萃取 6
第三章 研究方法 9
第一節 理論模型 9
第二節 模型效能評估 11
第三節 跨度迴歸 13
第四節 基於跨度迴歸之統計套利策略 15
第五節 實證流程設計 16
第四章 實證結果 18
第一節 資料敘述 18
第二節 參數選擇 24
第三節 模型配適度 27
第四節 因子比較 31
第五節 因子權重分布 53
第六節 樣本外獲利能力 64
第五章 結論 75
參考文獻 77
Bai, J. (2003). Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica, 71(1), 135–171.
Bai, J., & Ng, S. (2002). Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica, 70(1), 191–221.
Banz, R. W. (1981). The relationship between return and market value of common stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(1), 3–18.
Black, F. (1972). Capital market equilibrium with restricted borrowing. The Journal of Business, 45(3), 444–455.
Black, F., Jensen, M. C., & Scholes, M. (1972). The capital asset pricing model: Some empirical tests. In M. C. Jensen (Ed.), Studies in the theory of capital markets (pp. 79–121). Praeger.
Carhart, M. M. (1997). On persistence in mutual fund performance. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 57–82.
Chen, N. F., Roll, R., & Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic forces and the stock market. The Journal of Business, 59(3), 383–403.
Cochrane, J. H. (2011). Presidential address: Discount rates. The Journal of Finance, 66(4), 1047–1108.
Connor, G., & Korajczyk, R. A. (1986). Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory: A new framework for analysis. Journal of Financial Economics, 15(3), 373–394.
Connor, G., & Korajczyk, R. A. (1988). Risk and return in an equilibrium APT: Application to a new test methodology. Journal of Financial Economics, 21(2), 255–289.
Connor, G., & Korajczyk, R. A. (1993). A test for the number of factors in an approximate factor model. The Journal of Finance, 48(4), 1263–1291.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427–465.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3–56.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1996). Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies. The Journal of Finance, 51(1), 55–84.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2015). A five-factor asset pricing model. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 1–22.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2018). Choosing factors. Journal of Financial Economics, 128(2), 234–252.
Fama, E. F., & MacBeth, J. D. (1973). Risk, return, and equilibrium: Empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 607–636.
Fan, J., Liao, Y., & Wang, W. (2016). Projected principal component analysis in factor models. The Annals of Statistics, 44(1), 219–254.
Harvey, C. R., Liu, Y., & Zhu, H. (2016). … and the cross-section of expected returns. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(1), 5–68.
Haugen, R. A., & Baker, N. L. (1996). Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 41(3), 401–439.
Hou, K., Xue, C., & Zhang, L. (2020). Replicating anomalies. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(5), 2019–2133.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91.
Kelly, B., Pruitt, S., & Su, Y. (2019). Characteristics are covariances: A unified model of risk and return. Journal of Financial Economics, 134(3), 501–524.
Kozak, S., Nagel, S., & Santosh, S. (2020). Shrinking the cross-section. Journal of Financial Economics, 135(2), 271–292.
Lettau, M., & Pelger, M. (2020a). Factors that fit the time series and cross-section of stock returns. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(5), 2274–2325.
Lettau, M., & Pelger, M. (2020b). Estimating latent asset pricing factors. Journal of Econometrics, 218(1), 1–31.
Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13–37.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91.
Newey, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703–708.
Novy-Marx, R. (2013). The other side of value: The gross profitability premium. Journal of Financial Economics, 108(1), 1–28.
Onatski, A. (2010). Determining the number of factors from empirical distribution of eigenvalues. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 1004–1016.
Roll, R. (1977). A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory. Journal of Financial Economics, 4(2), 129–176.
Rosenberg, B., Reid, K., & Lanstein, R. (1985). Persuasive evidence of market inefficiency. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 11(3), 9–16.
Ross, S. A. (1976). The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing. Journal of Economic Theory, 13(3), 341–360.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425–442.
Stattman, D. (1980). Book values and stock returns. The Chicago MBA: A Journal of Selected Papers, 4, 25–45.
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2002). Forecasting using principal components from a large number of predictors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97(460), 1167–1179.
全文公開日期 2031/07/01