論文提要

隨著經濟的快速發展，台灣的政治風貌有著驚人的變化。樂觀的人多以為台灣的政治勢將日趨民主化，見到台灣政治變遷另一面的人卻未必如是想。根據西方學者的看法，經濟發展與民主政治是攜手並進的。究竟經濟發展與政治變遷之間是否有必然的命定關係呢？這是撰寫本論文的動機。不過，由於現有政治發展理論對這個問題的研究仍有若干缺失，遂決定由評述政治發展理論中有關經濟發展與政治變遷的論述著手，作為進一步研討的依據。

第一章：緒論。先略述近世學者對經濟發展與政治變遷的看法，次則試圖釐清若干與本論文有關的概念，如現代化、發展、成長與變遷。最後說明研究者旨趣所在。

第二章：對當前發展理論的幾點檢討。首先臚陳政治發展理論中所謂的典範。第二節則敘述靜態相關分析之不妥。第三節論述發展理論中，單線發展的達爾文主義之不當。第四節則批評學者研究政治變遷與經濟發展關係時，忽略政治變項的疏漏，並試圖提出一研究架構以供參考。

第三章：成長、分配與穩定的三角難題。第一節概略評述經濟成長與政治穩定的關係。次節議論經濟成長與分配的問題。第三節試圖綜合前兩節的論述，說明經濟平等與民主政治的關係。

第四章：經濟發展與政治民主。首先分析最有利於經濟發展的政治制度，澄清若干誤解。接著進一步探討經濟發展是否會導致政治民主化？最後並提出若干猶待檢證的陳述。

第五章：典範的消逝。本章由反面論證經濟發展與政治民主的關係。首先介紹 B ― A 模式及南美洲的專制政權。第二節以墨西哥為例，說明一黨獨大政治穩定下的墨西哥經濟成長未必能帶動真正的經濟發展。最後一節仍以墨西哥為例，論證後開發國家的經濟成長往往不見得導致政治民主。

第六章：結論。本章中試圖對經濟發展影響政治變遷的程度，提出一綜合性看法。

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參考書目

壹、中文部份

1.中央研究院三民主義研究所，國立中興大學經濟研究所合編，我國經濟發展與所得分配——邁向均富的社會（台北，國立編譯館，民國七十年）

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3.共產黨原始資料選輯，第一集，中華民國國際關係研究所輯印，民國五十八年。

4.呂亞力，政治發展與民主（台北，五南圖書出版公司，民國六十八年）

5.汪賜曾，林新賢合譯，經濟開發論（台北，協志工業叢書出版股份有限公司，民國六十一年）

6.浦薛鳳編著，現代西洋政治思潮（台北，正中書局，民國六十年，四版）

7.夏道平譯，經濟成長與安定——經濟變動與經濟政策的分析（台北，台灣銀行經濟研究室，民國六十六年）

8.陳昭南，民生主義與所得分配，中央研究院三民主義研究所專題選刊之三十二（台北，南港，民國六十九年）

9.鄒文海，比較憲法（台北，三民書局，民國五十八年，三版）

10.鄒文海，西洋政治思想史稿（台北，鄒文海先生獎學基金會，民國六十一年，初版）

11.羅志淵，美國政府及政治（台北，正中書局，民國五十三年）

12.邊裕淵，石義行，經濟發展的階段與耕者有其田，中央研究院三民主義研究所專題選刊之十六（台北，南港，民國六十七年）

貳、英文部份

一、書籍與讀

1. Adelman, Irma and Cynthia Taft Morris, Society, Politics, and Economic Development, 2d ed, (Baltimore, 1971)

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6. Almond, Gabriel A., Political Development (Boston: Little, Brown, 1970).

7. Anderson, Charles W., Politics and Economic Change in Latin America (Princeton: D. Van Nostrand Co., 1967)

8. Apter, David E., The Politics of Modernization (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1965).

9. Binder, Leonard, et al., Crises and Sequences in Political Development (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1971)

10. Black, Cyril E., The Dynamics of Modernization (New York: Harper & Row, 1966)

11. Coleman, Kenneth m., Diffuse Support in Mexico: The Potential for Crisis, Sage Professional Papers in Comparative Politics, No.01-057 (Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1976)

12. Commission on International Development (Pearson Commision ), Patterns in Development (New York, Preager, 1969).

13. Dahl, Robert A., A Preface to Democratie Theory (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1956)

14.________ , Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (new Haven: Yale University Press, 1971)

15. Downs, Anthony, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1957)

16. Easton, David, A Framework for Political Analysis (Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hill, 1965).

17________ , A System Analysis of Political Life (New York: Wiley, 1965).

18. Eisenstadt, S. N., Modernization: Protest and Change ( Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hill, 1966)

19. Fei, John C. H. and Douglas S. Paauw, The Transition in Open Dualistic Economies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1973).

20. Grindle, Merilee Servill, Bureaucrats, Politicians, and Peasants in Mexico: A Case Study in Public Policy (Califoria: University of California Press, 1977)

21. Hansen, Roger D., The Politics of Mexican Development (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1971)

22. Hibbs, Douglas A., Jr., Mass Political Violence: A Cross- National Causal Analysis (New York: Wiely-Interscience, 1973)

23. Huntington, Samuel P., Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968).

24. Huntington Samuel P. and Joan M. Nelson, No Easy Choice: Political Participation in Developing Countries (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1976)

25. Jackman, Robert W., Politics and Social Equality: A Comparative Analysis (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1975)

26. Kaufman, Robert R., Transition to Stable Authoritarian- Corporate Regimes: The Chilean Case? (Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1976)

27. Kautsky, John H. ed., Political Change in Underdeveloped Countries (New York: Wiley, 1962)

28. Key, V. O. Jr., Southern Politics in State and Nation (New York: Knopf, 1950)

29. Kuznets, Simon, Modern Economic Growth Rate, Structure and Spread (Harvard University Press, 1965)

30. Lenski, Gerhard, Power and Privilege: A Theory of Social Stratification (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1966)

31. Lerner, Daniel, The Passing of Traditional Society (New York: Free Press, 1958).

32. Levy Marion J. Jr., The Structure of Society (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1952)

33. _________ , Modernization nd the Structure of Society (Garden City, N. Y.: Doubleday, 1960)

34. Lipset, Seymour Martin, Political man (Garden City, N. Y.: Doubleday, 1960)

35. Macridis, Roy C., The Study of Comparative Government (Garden City, N. Y.: Doubleday, 1955).

36. Millikan, Max F. and Donald L. N. Blackmer, eds., The Emerging Nations: Their Growth and United States Policy (London: Asia Publishing House, 1961).

37. Moore, Barrington, Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon Press, 1966)

38. Needler, Martin C., Political Development in Latin America: Instability, Violence, and Evolutionary Change (New York: Random House, 1968)

39. ________, An Introduction to Latin American Politics: The Structure of Conflict (New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1977)

40. O’Donnell, Guillermo A., Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Polities(Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California, 1973)

41. Organski, A. F. K., The Stages of Political Development (New York: Afred A. Knopf, 1965.)

42. Parsons, Talcott, The Structure of Social Action (New York: Free Press, 1951).

43.________ , Structure and Process in Modern Societies (New York: Free press, 1960)

44. Pride, Richard A., Origins of Democracy: A Cross-National Study of Mobilization, Party System, and Democratic Stability , Sage Professional Papers in Comparative Politics (Beverly Hills: Sage Publication, 1970)

45. Pye, Lucian W., Politics, Personality and Nation Building: Burma’s Search for Indentity (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1962)

46.________, Aspects of Political Development (Boston: Little, Brown, 1966)

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51. Rustow, Dankwart A., A World of Nations (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1967)

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11. Bollen, Kenneth A., “Issues in the Comparative Measurement of Political Democracy,” American Sociological Review, Vol.45 (June, 1980) pp.370-390.

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48. Lipset, Seymour Martin, “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy,” American Political Science Review, 53 (March, 1959) pp.69-105.

49. Mazrui, Ali A., “From Social Darwinism to Current Theories of Modernization: A Tradition of Analysis,” World Politics , Vol. XXI, No.1 (October, 1968) pp.69-83.

50. McCrone, Donald J. and Charles F. Cnudde, “Toward a Communications Theory of Democratic Political Development: A Causal Model,” American Political Science Review, Vol.61, No.1 (March, 1967) pp.72-80

51. Meyer, Lorenzo, “Historical Roots of the Authoritarian State in Mexico,” in Jos é Luis Reyna and Richard S. Weinert, eds., Authoritarianism in Mexico (Philadelphia: ISHS, 1977)

52. Minhas, Bagicha S., “The Current Development Debate,” in A Rothko Chapel Colloquium, Toward a New Strategy for Development (New York: Pergamon Press, 1979)

53. Moore, Wibert, “Social Change and Comparative Studies,” International Social Science Journal, Vol.15, No.4, 1963, pp. 519-527.

54. Needler, Martin C., “Political Development and Socioeconomic Development: The Case of Latin America,” American Political Science Review, Vol. LXⅡ, No.3 (September 1968) pp.889-897.

55. Nesvold, Betty A., “Introduction: Studies in Political Development,” in John V. gillespie and Betty A. Nesvold, eds., Macro-Quantitative Analysis: Conflict, Development, and Democracy (California: Sage Publication, 1971)

56.________ , “Scalogram Analysis of Political Violence,” in John V. Gillespie and Betty A. Nesvold, eds., Macro-Quantitative Analysis: Conflict, Development, and Democracy (California: Sage Publication, 1971)

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58. Nie, Norman H., G. Bingham Powell, and Kenneth Prewitt, “Social Structure and Political Participation: Developmental Relationships,Ⅰ&Ⅱ,“American Political Science Review, 62 (June, 1969) pp.361-378; 63 (September, 1969) pp. 808-832.

59. Nie Norman H. and Sidney Verba, “Political Participation,” in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby eds., Handbook of Political Science, Vol.4: Nongovernmental Politics (California: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1975)

60. O’Donnell,GuilIermo, “Reflection on the Patterns of Change in the Bureaucratic-Authoritarian State,” Latin American Research Review, Vol. XⅢ No.1, 1978, pp.3-38.

61.________ , “Tension in the Bureaucratic-Authoritarian State and Question of Democracy,” in David Collier, eds., The New Authoritarianism in Latin America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1979)

62. Olson, Mancur Jr., “Rapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force ,“ Journal of Economic History, Vol.23, No.4 (December, 1963) pp.529-552.

63. Pavin, Manoucher, “Economic Determinants of Political Unrest: An Econometric Approach,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.17, No.2 (June, 1973) pp.271-296.

64. Petras, James and Thomas Cook, “Dependency and the Industrial Bourgeoisie: Attitudes of Argentine Executives Toward Foreign Economic Investment and U. S. Policy,” in James Petras, eds., Latin America: From Dependence to Revolution (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1973)

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66.________ , “The Future of the Mexican System,” in Jose Luis Reyna and Richard S. Weinert, eds., Authoritarianism in Mexico (Philadelphia: ISHI, 1977)

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