| 研究生: |
林柔君 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
企業財務健康與公開市場估值:跨市場的情緒影響 Corporate Financial Health and Valuation : Cross-Market Sentiment Effects |
| 指導教授: | 張興華 |
| 口試委員: |
陳冠潔
羅秉政 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 38 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 估值 、財務健康 、市場情緒 、新興市場 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Financial Health, Cross-Market Comparison |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:231 下載:0 |
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本研究探討企業財務健康與市場情緒對企業估值(PE ratio)之影響,並比較成熟市場與新興市場在估值邏輯上的差異。以 2013 至 2023 年美國 S&P 500 與印度 NSE 上市公司為樣本,本文構建綜合財務健康指標Z_proxy,結合資產報酬率(ROA)、槓桿倒數與營收成長率,並納入標準化市場情緒指標(sentiment_z),建立三個多元迴歸模型進行實證分析。模型一為基本架構,模型二納入情緒變數,模型三進一步檢驗財務健康與情緒之交互效應,另透過 pooled regression 合併兩市場進行整體比較。
實證結果顯示,美國市場中 Z_proxy 與公司規模對估值具有穩定正向影響,符合成熟市場以基本面為核心之預期;情緒與交互項則不具顯著性。印度市場中,估值邏輯較不穩定,Z_proxy 與情緒變數皆不顯著,企業規模呈負向效果,顯示投資人可能更受非理性因素或制度干擾影響。跨市場 pooled 模型進一步顯示,市場虛擬變數具顯著解釋力,驗證成熟與新興市場之估值結構存在顯著差異。
本研究結果有助於理解不同市場估值機制,對跨國資產配置與風險管理具有參考價值,亦建議未來研究可納入更細緻之行為變數與制度指標,進一步強化估值模型之實用性與解釋力。
This study examines the impact of corporate financial health and market sentiment on firm valuation (PE Ratio) and compares valuation mechanisms between a mature market and an emerging market. Using data from S&P 500 firms in the U.S. and NSE 500 firms in India over 2013–2023, we construct a composite financial health indicator (Z_proxy) based on ROA, inverse leverage, and sales growth, along with a standardized market sentiment indicator (sentiment_z). Three regression models are employed to evaluate the direct effects of fundamentals and sentiment, as well as their interaction, followed by a pooled regression to assess structural differences across markets.
Empirical results indicate that in the U.S., valuation is primarily driven by financial health and firm size, with sentiment playing a minor role except when interacting with fundamentals, where it amplifies their effect. In India, valuation is more sensitive to sentiment and firm size, while financial health shows no significant impact; notably, negative sentiment substantially lowers valuation. Pooled analysis further confirms that emerging markets are more sensitive to sentiment fluctuations and exhibit weaker fundamental effects.
These findings highlight the influence of market maturity, investor structure, and information environment on valuation logic, providing implications for cross-border asset allocation, risk management, and policy formulation.
第一章 緒論 6
第一節 研究背景與研究動機 6
第二節 研究目的 8
一、研究目的 8
二、研究貢獻 8
第三節 研究架構 10
第二章 文獻回顧 11
第一節 企業估值與財務健康性 11
第二節 投資人情緒與市場非理性 11
第三節 跨市場估值與行為比較 12
第三章 研究方法 13
第一節 資料來源與樣本選取 13
第二節 變數定義與衡量方式 15
第三節 實證模型設計 19
第四章 實證結果與討論 21
第一節 敘述性統計與相關性分析 21
第二節 回歸結果 23
第三節 跨市場比較 30
第四節:美印市場比較與討論 31
第五章 結論與建議 33
第一節 研究結論 33
第二節 研究建議與實務/政策意涵 33
第三節 研究限制與未來展望 35
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全文公開日期 2031/02/01