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| 研究生： |
王婷玉 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
諾爾紐曼的沈默螺旋論初探 |
| 指導教授： | 陳世敏 |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
傳播學院 - 新聞學系 Department of Journalism |
| 論文出版年： | 1988 |
| 畢業學年度： | 76 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：228 下載：0 |
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論文提要
本研究旨在引介、分析與批判諾爾紐曼(E. Noelle-Neumann)的沈默螺旋論，從而將此理論在民意和傳播研究的領域中定位，並由此洞視民意形成與轉變過程中的因素，期使為國內民意與傳播研究提供一些線索。
第一章 緒論:說明研究動機乃鑒於民意理論闕如，故擬深究此帶來重大突破的民意理論。研究方法則採文獻探討法，以孔恩「科學革命的結構」為參考架構，從科學哲學的理論發展觀點，整理有關文獻。
第二、三、四章相繼探討沈默螺旋論之精義，追溯其建構軌跡和思想源流，並梳理學術界的迴響與批評。大致皆分成民意、傳播和社會理論、以及實證研究等範疇來整理分析文獻。第五章綜合前三章的研究，試析沈默螺旋論發展之結論。
結果發現:沈默螺旋論發展的歷程固然有類似孔恩「科學革命的結構」之處，但整體而言，自有其獨特的發展結構。
猶如孔恩的自然科學發展模式，為了理解選舉異例，諾氏一改傳統的「個體集合」的觀點，而從社會心理學的觀點來探討民意，以「整合論」化解「菁英論」與「大眾論」之爭，由此建構了沈默螺旋論，不但重現了大眾媒介強大的效果，更擴大了研究範圍，在民意與傳播研究上蔚為新典範，帶來革命性的衝擊。
然而，異於孔恩模式的是，諾氏直接承繼民意的古典傳統，並融合現代實證研究，方能形成既廣博又精確的好理論。再者，對於民意形成與轉變，沈默螺旋論著眼於人們害怕孤立的社會心理，提供了一種發人深省的解釋，可惜它未能兼顧參考團體影響等社會學觀點，而未臻至常態科學的地位。
此外，沈默螺旋論採取整體的研究途徑，結合古典傳統、現代實證和跨科際的研究，展望將來，它替民意理論的發展，樹立了正確的研究方向。
目錄
第一章 緒論………1
第一節 研究動機與目的………1
第二節 中心研究課題………7
第三節 研究方法………8
第二章 沈默螺旋論………12
第一節 概念與變項的定義………12
第二節 形式化與範疇………17
第三節 預設與定位………31
第四節 沈默螺旋論的研究方法………37
第五節 實證研究發現………40
第三章 沈默螺旋論溯源………54
第一節 理論建構的軌跡………55
第二節 薪傳──民意理論………59
第三節 薪傳──傳播理論………74
第四節 薪傳──社會理論………77
第五節 後見之明的假傳承………80
第四章 沈默螺旋之沈默與迴響………88
第一節 沈默螺旋後續研究摘要………88
第二節 沈默螺旋論引起的共鳴………94
第三節 沈默螺旋論面臨的挑戰──沈默與噪音………109
第四節 回應與反擊………129
第五章 沈默螺旋論發展之歷程………140
第一節 孔恩的科學發展模式………140
第二節 沈默螺旋論發展之結構試析………142
第六章 結論與建議………151
第一節 結論………151
第二節 未來研究的展望………157
附錄
參考書目
圖表目次
圖1.1 孔恩的科學發展歷程模式………7
圖2.1 沈默螺旋模式………19
圖2.2 沈默螺旋中意見演化的多階段模式………24
圖2.3 媒介有效假設的因果鏈………26
圖2.4 沈默螺旋的過程模式………27
圖2.5 沈默螺旋的民意動力模式………29
圖2.6 沈默螺旋的綜合模式………30
圖2.7 文化(媒介)與社會之間的關係類型………36
圖2.8 媒介效果的類型………36
圖3.1 沈默螺旋溯源的參考架構………60
圖4.1 研究多元無知類型的典型代表………99
圖4.2 以情緒理論重新詮釋的沈默螺旋模式………102
圖4.3 議題設定與沈默的螺旋………106
圖4.4 投票意向與政治氣候的關聯………117
圖4.5 意見氣候轉變而投票意向保持不變………133
圖5.1 沈默螺旋論發展之結構………149
表1.1 意見與政治的一般模式………5
表2.1 沈默螺旋研究摘要………41
表3.1 沈默螺旋民意觀的源流………62
表4.1 沈默螺旋後續研究摘要………89
表4.2 正確察覺大多數人的意見者所佔比例………100
表4.3 認為大多數人贊成或承認東德者所佔比例………116
表4.4 由攝影角度和公眾反應予候選人的評價………124
表4.5 在死刑論題上，己見與對民意察覺之間的對應………131
表5.1 沈默螺旋「新」典範與現代民意暨傳播理論「舊」典範………146
參考書目
一、中文部分
王道還編譯(民七四)科學革命的結構。台北:允晨。
丘昌泰(民七六)「美國民主的觀察家:托克維爾──評介其對美國自由與平等理念的觀察」，思與言，二五卷一期，頁八五~九九。
林正弘(民七五)「當代科學哲學的蛻變──評介《科學革命的結構》」，中國論壇，二五八期，頁五十~五四。
吳統雄(民七五)「薪火與生食──讀陳義彥《我國投票行為研究的回顧與展望》」，民意學術專刊，秋季號，頁三~三一。
翁秀琪(民七六)「我國電視媒介的反民主本質」，中國論壇，二七九期，頁四四~四七。
莊文瑞(民七六)「社會科學研究的幾個基礎問題──面對當代科學、哲學的挑戰」，中國論壇，二九四期，頁九~十五。
陳世敏(民七二)大眾傳播與社會變遷。台北:三民。
陳世敏譯(民七四)傳播媒介、民意、公共政策分析。台北:國立編譯館。
黃安邦編譯(民七五)社會心理學。台北:五角。
彭芸(民七五)政治傳播。台北:巨流。
二、英文部份
Allport, Floyd H. (1937) "Toward A Science of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly 1: 7–23.
Asch, Solomon E. (1963) "Effects of Group Pressure upon the Modification and Distortion of Judgements," in Harold Guetzkow (ed.) Groups, Leadership, and Men. New York: Russell & Russell Inc. .
Bennett, W. Lance (1980) Public opinion in American Politics. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc. .
Blumler, Jay G. (1980) "Mass Communication Research in Europe: Some Origins And Prospects," Media, Culture, and Society 2: 367–76.
----(1985) "European-American Differences in Comminication Research , " in Everett M. Rogers & Francis Balle (eds.) The Media Revolution in American and in Western Europe. Norwood, N. J. : Ablex.
Bryce, James (1900, 1959) The American Commonwealth. N. Y.: Putnam.
Dance, Frank E.X. (1970) "A Helical Model of Communication," in Kenneth K. Sereno & C. David Mortensen (eds.) Foundations of Communication Theory. New York: Harper & Row.
Davison, W. Phillips (1980) "A Review of E.N.N. ‘Die Schweigespirale: Öffentliche Meinung-unsere soziale Haut’ , " public Opinion Quarterly 40:605-608.
Donsbach, Wolfgang & Stevenson, Robert L. (1984) Challenges, Problems and Empirical Evidence of the Theory of the Spiral of Silence. Paper Presented to the Panel on the Spiral of Silence Theory at the Conference of the International Communication Association.
Erikson, Robert S. et al. (1980) American Public Opinion: Its Origions. Content and Impact. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Fields, James M., & Howard Schuman (1976) "Public Beliefs about the Beliefs of the Public," Public Opinion Quarterly 40: 427–48.
Fromm, Erich (1941) Man for Himself. New York: Avon Books.
----(1955) The Sane Society.
----(1959) Escape from Freedom. New York: Rinehart & Company, Inc.
Galtung, Johan & Ruge, Mari H. (1965) "The structure of Foreign News," In : Journal of International Peace Research 1:64-90.
Glynn, Carrol J. & McLeod, Jack M. (1982a) Perceptions of Public Opinion, Communication Processes and Voting Decisions. Paper Presented to the Political Communication Division of the International Communication Division of the International Communication Association.
–––– (1982b) "Public Opinion du Jour: Its Impact on Communication and Voting Behavior, " Public Opinion Quarterly 48: 731-40.
---(1985) "Implications of the Spiral of Silence Theory for Communication and Public Opinion Research," Political Communication Yearbook 1: 43–65.
Halloran, James D. et al. (1970) Demonstrations and Communication. Harmondsworth, England: Penguin.
Hart, Harm't & Barbara Klem (1986) Interviewee's Report of Looking Glass Perception and the Spiral of Silence. Paper for Presentation at World Association for Public Opinion Research Annual Meeting.
Hennessy, Bernard (1985) Public Opinion. Monterey, CA: Brooks/Cole.
Jahoda, Marie (1959) "Conformity and Independence: A Psychological Analysis," Human Relations 12: 99-120.
Katz, Elihu (1983) "Publicity and Pruralistic Ignorance: Notes on The Spiral of Silence," Mass Communication Yearbook
Kuhn, Thomas S. (1970) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
----(1977) The Essential Tension. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.
Lane. Robert E. & Sears David O. (1964) Public Opinion. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Lazarsfeld, Paul, Bernard Berelson & Hazel Gandet (1968) The People's Choice. New York: Columbia Univ. Press.
Lewin, Kurt (1947) "Group Decision and Social Change," Readings in Social Psychology, ed. Theodore M. Newcomb and Eugene L. Hartley, New York: Henry Holt and Company.
Levy, Mark R. & Windahl, Sven (1985) "The Concept of Audience Activity," in Karl Erik Rosengren et al (eds.) Media Gratifications Research. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications Inc.
Lippmann, Walter (1922/65) Public opinion. New York: Free Press.
Lin, Nan (1976) Foundations of Social Research. New York: Mcgraw-Hill Book Company.
Maisel , Richard et al. (1986) Simulating the Spiral of Silence. Paper for Presentation at World Association for public opinion Research Annual Meeting.
Marcus, George E. (1986) If there is a "Spiral of silence," How might it work? Some Speculations. Paper for presentation at World Association for Public Opinion Research Annual Meeting.
McCombs, M.E., and D. L. Shaw (1972) "The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media.” P.O.Q. 36: 176–87.
McCombs, Maxwell E. & Weaver, David H. (1985) "Toward a Merger of Gratifications and Agenda-Setting Research," in Karl Erik Rosengren et al (eds.) Media Gratifications Research. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications Inc.
McLeod, Jack M. (1985) "An Essay: Public Opinion——Our Social Skin" Journalism Quarterly Autumn: 649-53.
McQuail, Denis (1983) Mass Communication Theory. Beverly Hills: Sage.
McQuail, Denis & Sven Windahl (1982) Communication Models. New York: Longman.
Merten, Klaus (1985) "Some Silence in the Spiral of Silence," Political Communication Yearbook 1: 31-42.
Merton, Robert K. (1968) Social Theory and Social Structure Toward the Codification of Theory and Research. New York: Free Press.
Monroe, Alan D. (1975) Public Opinion in America. New York: Dodd, Mead & Company, Inc.
Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth (1959). "Mass Communication Media and Public Opinion," Journalism Quarterly: 401–09.
----(1973/78) "Return to the Concept of Powerful Mass Media," in Everette E. Dennis et al. (eds.) Enduring Issues in Mass Communication. St. Paul, MN: West Publishing Company.
----(1974) "The Spiral of silence: A Theory of Public Opinion," Journal of Communication 24 : 43-51. (1977). "Turbulences in the Climate of Opinion: Methedological Applications of the Spiral of Silence Theory," Public Opinion Quarterly 41: 143-58.
----(1979). "Public Opinion and the Classical Tradition: A Reevaluation." Public Opinion Quarterly 43: 143-56.
----(1981) "Mass Media and Social Change in Developed Societies," in E. Katz & T. Szecsko (eds.) Mass Media and Social Change. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.
----(1984) The Spiral of Silence: Our Social Skin. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.
----(1985) "The Spiral of Silence: A Response," in D. Nimmo & K. Sanders, et al., Political Communication Yearbook 1: 66–94, (Carbondale, Ill. : Southern Illinois Univ. Press).
O'Gorman, Hubert & Stephen Garry (1976) "Pluralistic Ignorance--a Replication and Extension," Public Opinion Quarterly 40: 449–58.
Paletz, David L. & Robert M. Entman (1981) Media Power Politics New York: The Free Press.
Renshon, Stanley A. (1977). "Assumptive Frameworks in Political Socialization Theory," in S. A. Renshon (ed.) Handbook of Political Socialization. New York: Free Press.
Reynolds, Paul Davidson (1971) A Primer in Theory Construction. Indianapolis: The Bobbs-Merill Company.
Riesman, David & Nathan Glazer, Reuel Denney (1953) The Lonely Crowd. New York: Double Day & Company.
Rosengren, R. E. (1981) Advances in Content Analysis. Beverly Hills & London: Sage.
Salmon, Charles T. & Kline, F. Gerald (1985) "The Spiral of Silence Ten Years Later: An Examination and Evaluation, " Political Communication Yearbook 1 : 3–30.
Strute, Karl & Doelken, Theodre eds. (1983) Who's who in Germany: 1982–83.
Taylor, D. Garth (1982) "Pluralistic Ignorance and the Spiral of Silence: A Formal Analysis," Public Opinion Quartly 46:311-335.
Turner, Jonathan H. (1974) The Structure of Sociological Theory. Illinois: The Dorsey Press.
三、德文部分
Donsbach, Von Wolfgang (1987) "Die Theorie der Schweigespirale," in Michael Schenk (ed.) Medienwirkungsforschung. Tubingen.
Noelle, E. (1963) Umfragen in der Massengesellschaft. Hamburg.
Noelle-Neumann, E. (1982) Die Schweige-spirale Öffentliche Meinung-unsere soziale Haut. Berlin: Ullstein Sachbuch
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