論文提要

本論文利用事件研究法檢定股票市場對現金流量表資訊公布日前後三十日之反應，並以問卷方式調查法人機構投資者在從事股價分析及股票投資決策時應用現金流量表資訊之情形，以及會計師對於我國現金流量表編製之相關規定是否認為有不清楚之處。 至於現金流量表之編製現況，則係利用次級資料(各公司79 年度財務報告) ，逐一閱讀，指出其編製之缺失項目及其正確之處理方法，同時檢定會計師事務所規模大小，與其所代編之公司現金流量表之缺失數目多寡，二

者是否有關。

本論文之主要結論如下:

1.現金流量表公布日前三十日起股價開始反應，其反應之方向與本論文所做之預期一致，亦即營業活動淨現金流量大於本期損益之公司、營業活動淨現金流量佔本期損益比例較大之公司，或營業活動淨現金流量大於投資及理財活動淨現金流量之公司，在現金流量表公布日前三十日，其股價已開始作正的反應；反之，營業活動淨現金流量小於本期損益之公司，營業活動淨現金流量佔本期損益比例較

小之公司，或營業活動淨現金流量小於投資及理財活動淨現金流量之公司，在現金流量表公布日前三十日起，其股價陸續作負的反應。

惟由各組樣本在現金流量表公布日前後各不同期間之累積平均日異常報酬率(CAR) 及其T統計量觀察，除「營業活動淨現金流量大於本期損益」那一組樣本在現金流量表公布日前30 日至前1 日間，以及「營業活動淨現金流量小於本期損益」那一組樣本在現金流量表公布日前30 日至前11 日間，其股價有顯著異常反應(α 分別為0.10 及0.05 )外，各組樣本在不同期間(含宣布期間)股價之

異常反應統計上均不顯著，表示投資者多數情況下應用現金流量表資訊不能產生超額報酬率。

2. 問卷調查國內法人機構投資者，發現絕大多數之法人機構投資者，知道我國公司目前公布之財務報表包括現金流量表，也知道現金流量表之內容格式及營業活動現金流量之報導方式。 在從事股價分析及股票投資決策時，多數法人機構投資者使用到現金流量表資訊，惟其對投資決策幫助之程度卻很小，此或可從現行實務上沒有一家公司採用直接法報導現金流量表營業活動現金流量，尋出蛛絲馬跡(雖然法人機構投資者多數偏好採用直接法方式報導)其次，我國股票市場個人投資者佔投資人口比例高達99.6% '且投資金額佔市場總資本額之半數以上，這些個人投資者因專業知識不足，可能未使用現金流量表資訊，而致將機構投資者之投資決策效果加以混淆了。

3. 我國公司現金流量表編製發生缺失，係全面性的，為公司代編該報表之會計師所屬事務所，不論規模大小，平均每一簽證公司之編製缺失數目統計上並無不同。問卷謂查結果發現會計師並不認為我國財務會計準則公報第十七號對現金流量表之編製規定很不清楚，反倒是會計師對該號公報之規定不熟悉、或誤解營業、投資及理財活動之性質，甚至對會計科目之定義欠缺瞭解，才是造成普遍發生錯誤的原因，而此又與該公報第一年實施，會計師缺乏訓練有關。

4. 使用現金流量表資訊之法人機構投資者均認為，上市公司應定期公布其未來之現金流量預測資訊，且多數認為一季公布一次最好。而在目前上市公司實際上並無公布現金流量預測資訊之事實下，法人機構投資者除少數證券投資信託公司基金經理人有自行作預測外，絕大多數均未對未來現金流量作預測，其主要原因為預測所需使用之資料不足。至於有自行作預測之經理人認為同時使用公司過去之會計盈餘及過去之營業活動現金流量，預測能力最高，單獨使用公司過去之營業活動現金流量者其次。請會計師填答之問卷，亦得到同樣之結果，顯示會計師與證券投資信託經理人一樣，均認為現金流量表提供之資訊有別於損益表，現金流量表具有超越損益表之邊際預測能力

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