跳到主要內容

簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 寇菲力
論文名稱: 論貨幣政策與資產價格
Essays on Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
指導教授: 林佐裕
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
International Doctor Program in Asia-Pacific Studies(IDAS)
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 85
中文關鍵詞: 貨幣政策資產價格
外文關鍵詞: Monetary
相關次數: 點閱:227下載:24
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報

  • This thesis consists of two essays on the relations hip between monetary policy and asset price dynamics. The first essay examines the extent to which Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain experienced property bubbles and investigates the role of European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy in the formation of these bubbles in the period from 1999 to 2012. The analysis shows that Spain and Ireland experienced the largest bubble formation followed by Portugal and Greece. Cointegration tests and VEC impulse responses indicate a significant long-and short-run relationship between ECB’s monetary policy and bubble formation in Greece, Ireland and Spain. The second essay examines long- and short-run dynamics between global commodity prices, economic activity and monetary policy of China in the period from 1998M01 to 2012M12. While Toda and Yamamoto (1995) type Granger causality tests provide no evidence for a long-run relationship between monetary policy and commodity prices, VAR generalized impulse responses suggests that agricultural commodity prices overshoot in response to a drop in the real interest rate. The analysis further finds evidence that industrial metals prices tend to be higher when China’s exchange rate regime is relaxed.

    "1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1
    2. Monetary Policy and Real Estate Bubbles ................................................................. 9
    2.1. Introduction .........................................................................................................9
    2.2. Literature Review ..............................................................................................16
    2.2.1. Real Estate Bubbles ....................................................................................16
    2.2.2. Monetary Policy and Property Bubbles ......................................................19
    2.3. Framework ........................................................................................................20
    2.3.1. Property Bubble Determination ..................................................................20
    2.3.2. Monetary Policy Transmission ...................................................................23
    2.4. Data ...................................................................................................................25
    2.5. Empirical Analysis ............................................................................................29
    2.5.1. Long-Run Dynamics ..................................................................................29
    2.5.2. Short-Run Dynamics ..................................................................................32
    2.6. Discussion .........................................................................................................37
    2.7. Conclusion .........................................................................................................41
    3. Monetary Policy and Global Commodity Prices ..................................................... 44
    3.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................44
    3.2. Framework ........................................................................................................51
    3.3. Data and Methodology ......................................................................................53
    3.3.1. Data.............................................................................................................53
    3.3.2. Methodology...............................................................................................59
    3.4. Empirical Analysis ............................................................................................62
    3.4.1. Unit Root Tests and Lag Length Selection.................................................62
    3.4.2. VAR Estimation and Model Robustness ....................................................64
    3.4.3. Long-Run Dynamics ..................................................................................65
    3.4.4. Short-Run Dynamics ..................................................................................67
    3.5. Conclusion .........................................................................................................70
    4. Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 73
    5. References ................................................................................................................ 78"

    "Adams, Z., & Füss, R. (2010). Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Markets. Journal of Housing Economics, 19, 38-50.
    Agnello, L., & Schuknecht, L. (2011). Booms and Busts in Housing Markets: Determinants and Implications. Journal of Housing Economics, 20, 171-190.
    Ahearne, A. G., Ammer, J., Doyle, B. M., Kole, L. S., & Martin, R. F. (2005). Monetary Policy and House Prices: A Cross-Country Study. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 841.
    Akram, Q. F. (2009). Commodity Prices, Interest rates and the Dollar. Energy Economics, 31, 838-851.
    Alessandri, P. (2006). Bubbles and Fads in the Stock Market: Another Look at the Experience of the US. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 11, 195-203.
    Asmussen, J. (2012). The Irish Case from an ECB Perspective, from http://www.ecb.int
    Awokuse, T. O., & Yang, J. (2003). The Informational Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy: A Reexamination. Economic Letters, 79, 219-224.
    Belke, A., Bordon, I. G., & Volz, U. (2013). Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices. World Development, 44, 31-43.
    BGS. (2012). Risk list 2012, from http://www.bgs.ac.uk
    BGS. (2013). World Mineral Production 2007-2011, from http://www.bgs.ac.uk
    BIS. (2013a). Derivatives Statistics, from http://www.bis.org
    BIS. (2013b). Property Price Statistics, from http://www.bis.org
    Bjoerklund, K., & Soederberg, B. (1999). Property Cycles, Speculative Bubbles and the Gross Income Multiplier. Journal of Real Estate Research, 18, 151-174.
    Black, A., Fraser, P., & Hoesli, M. (2006). House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles. Journal of Business and Accounting, 33, 1535-1555.
    Bordo, M. D., & Landon-Lane, J. (2013). Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19585.
    Bordo, M. D., & Wheelock, D. C. (2004). Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 86, 19-44.
    Borio, C. (2012). The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics: What Have We Learnt? BIS Working Papers, No. 395.
    Borio, C., English, W., & Filardo, A. (2003). A Tale of Two Perspectives: Old or New Challenges for Monetary Policy? BIS Working Papers, No. 127.
    Borio, C., & Lowe, P. (2002). Asset Prices, Financial and Monetary Stability: Exploring the Nexus. BIS Working Papers, No. 114.
    BP. (2013). BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, from http://www.bp.com
    Byrne, J. P., Fazio, G., & Fiess, N. (2013). Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals. Journal of Development Economics, 101, 16-26.
    Chan, H. L., Lee, S. K., & Woo, K. Y. (2001). Detecting Rational Bubbles in the Residential Housing Markets of Hong Kong. Economic Modelling, 18, 61-73.
    Ciccarelli, M., Maddaloni, A., & Peydro, J.-L. (2010). Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy. ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1228.
    Conefrey, T., & Gerald, J. F. (2010). Managing Housing Bubbles in Regional Economies Under EMU: Ireland and Spain. National Institute Economic Review, No. 211.
    Detken, C., & Smets, F. (2004). Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy. ECB Working Paper Series, No. 364.
    Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Society, 75, 427-431.
    Dol, K., & Haffner, M. (2010). Housing Statistics in the European Union 2010, from http://www.housingeurope.eu
    Domanski, D., & Heath, A. (2007). Financial Investors and Commodity Markets. BIS Quarterly Review, March 2007, 53-67.
    Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics. The Journal of Political Economy, 84, 1161-1176.
    ECB. (2003). Structural Factors in the EU Housing Markets. European Central Bank Structural Issues Report.
    ECB. (2009). Housing Finance in the Euro Area. European Central Bank Structural Issues Report.
    ECB. (2010). Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy Revisted. ECB Monthly Bulletin, November 2010, 71-83.
    ECB. (2013a). Monetary Policy, from http://www.ecb.europa.eu
    ECB. (2013b). Statistical Data Warehouse, from http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu
    EIA. (2012). China Country Analysis, from http://www.eia.gov
    EMF. (2012). Hypostat 2011: A Review of Europe's Mortgage and Housing Markets,from http://www.hypo.org
    Enders, W. (2010). Applied Econometric Time Series: John Wiley & Sons.
    Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
    Eurostat. (2013). Eurostat Statistical Database, from http://www.epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
    FAO. (2013). FAO Statistical Yearbook 2013- World Food and Agriculture, from http://www.fao.org
    Frankel, J. (1986). Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68 (2), 344-348.
    Frankel, J. (2008). The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices. In J. Y. Campbell (Ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy (pp. 291-327): University of Chicago Press.
    Friedman, M. (1970). The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory. Institute of Economic Affairs Occasional Paper, No. 33.
    Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1965). Money and Business Cycles. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 45, 32-64.
    Gospodinov, N., Herrera, A. M., & Pesavento, E. (2013). Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Pretesting in Var Models. In T. B. Fomby, L. Kilian & A. Murphy (Eds.), VAR Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims (Advances in Econometrics, Volume 32) (pp. 81-115): Emerald Group Publishing.
    Hamilton, J. (2009). Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-2008. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2009, 215-261.
    Hamilton, J. D. (1985). Uncovering Financial Market Expectations. Journal of Political Economy, 93, 1224-1241.
    Hatzvi, E., & Otto, G. (2008). Prices, Rents and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the Sydney Housing Market. The Economic Record, 84, 405-420.
    Hayek, F. A. (1935). Prices and Production (Second ed.). New York: Augustus M. Kelly, Publishers.
    He, Y., Wang, S., & Lai, K. K. (2010). Global Economic Activity and Crude Oil Prices: A Cointegration Analysis. Energy Economics, 32, 868-876.
    Hofmann, B. (2004). The Determinants of Private Sector Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter? International Finance, 7, 203-234.
    Hui, E. C. M., & Yue, S. (2006). Housing Price Bubbles in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai: A Comparative Study. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 33, 299-327.
    Igan, D., & Loungani, P. (2012). Global House Prices Still Showing Down Trend. IMF Survey Magazine: IMF Research, from http://www.imf.org
    Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models: Oxford University Press.
    Kilian, L. (2009). Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review, 99, 1053-1069.
    Koop, G., Pesaran, M. H., & Potter, S. M. (1996). Impulse Response Analysis in Nonlinear Multivariate Models. Journal of Econometrics, 74, 119-147.
    Li, H., & Lin, S. X. (2011). Do Emerging Markets Matter in the World Oil Pricing System? Evidence of Imported Crude by China and India. Energy Policy, 39, 4624-4630.
    Liu, Q., & An, Y. (2011). Information Transmission in Informationally Linked Markets: Evidence from US and Chinese Commodity Futures Markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 778-795.
    Lombardi, M. J., & Robays, I. V. (2011). Do Financial Investors Destabilize the Oil Price. ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1346.
    Mikhed, V., & Zemcik, P. (2009). Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38, 366-386.
    Mises, L. v. (1912). Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufsmittel. Muenchen und Leipzig: Verlag von Duncker & Humblot.
    Nazlioglu, S., & Soytas, U. (2011). World Oil Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence From an Emerging Market. Energy Economics, 33, 488-496.
    Oikarinen, E. (2009). Interaction Between Housing Prices and Household Borrowing: The Finnish Case. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33, 747-756.
    Pesaran, H. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models. Econometric Letters, 58, 17-29.
    Pitfield, P. E. J., Brown, T. J., & Idoine, N. E. (2010). Mineral Information and Statistics for the BRIC countries 1999-2008, from http://www.bgs.ac.uk
    Poterba, J. M. (1984). Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99, 729-752.
    Praet, P. (2011). Housing Cycles and Financial Stability - The Role of the Policymaker, from http://www.ecb.europa.eu
    Radetzki, M. (2006). The Anatomy of Three Commodity Booms. Resources Policy, 31, 56-64.
    Reinhart, C., & Borensztein, E. (1994). The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices. IMF Staff Papers, 41, 236-261.
    Roache, S. K. (2012). China's Impact on World Commodity Markets. IMF Working Paper WP/12/115.
    Saghaian, S. H., Reed, M. R., & Marchant, M. A. (2002). Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84, 90-103.
    Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48, 1-48.
    Sims, C. A., Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1990). Inference in Linear Time Series Models With Some Unit Roots. Econometrica, 58, 113-144.
    Smith, M. H., & Smith, G. (2006). Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:2006.
    Soytas, U., Sari, R., Hammoudeh, S., & Hacihasanoglu, E. (2009). World Oil Prices, Precious Metal Prices and Macroeconomy in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37, 5557-5566.
    Stiglitz, J. E. (1990). Symposium on Bubbles. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4, 13-18.
    Tang, K., & Xiong, W. (2010). Index Investment and Financialisation of Commodites. NBER Working Paper, No. 16385.
    Teng, H.-J., Chang, C.-O., & Chau, K. W. (2013). Housing Bubbles: A Tale of Two Cities. Habitat International, 39, 8-15.
    Tobin, J. (1969). A General Equilibrium Approach To Monetary Theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1, 15-29.
    Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
    Tsai, I. C., & Peng, C.-W. (2011). Bubbles in the Taiwan Housing Market: The Determinants and Effects. Habitat International, 35, 379-390.
    UNCTAD. (2011). Price Formation in Financialized Commodity Markets: The Role of Information. United Nations Publication UNCTAD/GDS/2011/1.
    USITC. (2011). China's Agricultural Trade: Competitive Conditions and Effects on U.S. Exports. USITC Publication, No. 4219.
    WFE. (2013). World Federation of Exchanges Statistics Database, from http://www.world-exchanges.org
    Xiao, Q., & Tan, G. K. R. (2007). Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles. Urban Studies, 44, 865-888."

    QR CODE
    :::