本研究之主要目的有二:(一)比較財務分析師與統計模式之盈餘預測準確性，及(二)探討財務分析師盈餘預測優越性(優於統計模式)之決定因素為何?本研究根據各種理論依據發展出下列六項影響財務分析師盈餘預測優越性之決定因素──盈餘變異性，公司規模大小、報紙報導之資訊、管理當局盈餘預測資訊、公司上市時間長短，及股市型態。本研究同時設立六個研究假說: (1) 當公司盈餘變異性愈大，財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，(2)當公司規模愈大，財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，(3)當公司有關之資訊報導(報紙)愈多，則財務分析師盈餘預測優越性愈強，(4)當財務分析師盈餘預測發佈日前，公司管理當局己發佈過盈餘預測資訊時，則財務分析師盈餘預測優越性強， (5) 當公司愈晚上市，則財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，及(6)空頭市場(相對於多頭市場)對財務分析師盈餘預測優越性有正面影響。

根據實證研究結果顯示: (一)財務分析師(財訊)之盈餘預測準確性較統計模式(帶趨勢隨機漫步模式)為佳;(二)當財務分析師盈餘預測係以財務分析師盈餘預測之

平均數衡量時，財務分析師盈餘預測優越性之決定因素為(1)公司規模大小，(2) 報紙報導之資訊，及(3)股市型態; (三)當財務分析師盈餘預測係以財務分析師最晚發佈之盈餘預測值衡量時，財務分析師盈餘預測優越性之決定因素為(1)公司規模大小，(2)報紙報導之資訊，及(3)公司上市時間長短。總之，當公司規模愈大，報紙報導之資訊愈多，股市為空頭市場，公司上市時間愈長時，財務分析

師盈餘預制之優越性愈強。

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