本文以台積電於美國亞利桑那州與日本熊本的外國直接投資為核心個案，探討台積電的外國直接投資是否具備經濟理性?社會對此筆外國直接投資普遍存在的五項疑慮（產業空洞化、技術外流風險、資源配置效率、美國晶片法案與出口管制影響）之實際風險程度，以及美日台三國在半導體產業鏈中的合作可能性。本文以理論推論為主，藉由Dunning折衷典範、資本主義多樣性、社會能力、交易成本理論與武器化互賴理論，進行整合性討論。本文推論結果顯示，台積電的外國直接投資應屬主動策略，其核心優勢與台灣人力資本供給與勞動文化等社會能力密切相關，故短期內難以被競爭廠商複製；美日的勞動文化摩擦則反面論證兩國在短期內難以培育替代廠商，故三國合作的預期收益應大於競爭。據此，本文認為五項社會疑慮在短期內的實際風險程度相對有限。

This study explores TSMC’s foreign direct investments (FDI) in Arizona(United States) and Kumamoto(Japan) as core case studies to examine whether these investments are economically rational, to assess the actual risks associated with five commonly expressed societal concerns in Taiwan regarding outward FDI, and to explore the prospects for trilateral cooperation among the United States, Japan, and Taiwan within the semiconductor value chain. Drawing on Dunning’s Eclectic Paradigm (OLI) as the primary analytical framework, this paper integrates insights from the Varieties of Capitalism(VoC) approach, social capability theory, transaction cost economics, and the theory of weaponized interdependence. Through theoretically grounded analysis, it finds that TSMC’s FDI represents a proactive strategic move, with its core competitive advantages closely tied to Taiwan’s social capabilities, particularly in human capital supply and labor culture, rendering them difficult to replicate in the short term. Conversely, labor culture frictions in the United States and Japan further indicate limited nearterm substitutability. Accordingly, this study concludes that trilateral relations are more likely to converge toward a cooperation-dominant equilibrium, and that the five major societal concerns regarding TSMC's FDI pose relatively limited short-term risks.

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