| 研究生: |
林易達 Lin, Yi-Da |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
破產資料中的依存結構與高階交互作用分析 : 基於熵的資料驅動方法 Dependency Structures and Higher-Order Interactions in Bankruptcy Data: A Data-Driven Information-Theoretic Approach |
| 指導教授: |
周珮婷
Elizabeth P. Chou 謝復興 Fushing Hsieh |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 統計學系 Department of Statistics |
| 論文出版年: | 2025 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 48 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 破產分析 、熵 、群集分析 、類別資料分析 、交互作用效應 、維度縮減 、熱圖視覺化 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Bankruptcy Analysis, Entropy, Cluster Analysis, Category Data Analysis, Interaction Effect, Dimension Reduction, Heatmap Visualization |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:301 下載:0 |
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企業破產分析是財務統計與應用經濟領域的重要研究課題。隨著企業財務結構與營運環境日益複雜,傳統以線性財務比率為基礎的模型往往無法充分描述變數間的非線性關係與高維交互效應。本研究以探索性資料分析的觀點,發展一套能揭示破產資料中多層次依存結構的統計方法。
研究資料取自 UCI Machine Learning Repository 之台灣企業破產資料集,包含 6,819 家公司與 95 個財務指標。首先,以熵為基礎的關聯量測建構變數間的相似矩陣,並以階層式群集分析歸納出具經濟意涵的特徵群組。其次,透過列聯表分析探討群組變數與破產狀態之間的條件分佈與勝算比,以評估主要效果與交互作用。為檢驗結果的穩健性,本研究比較在對立(Alternative)與虛無(Null)列聯表族群下的隨機性分佈差異,以有限樣本精確度(finite-sample precision)為依據判定顯著關聯。結果顯示,多組變數間的高階交互作用可有效區分破產風險,凸顯在多變量資料中探討依存結構的重要性。
Corporate bankruptcy analysis is an important topic in applied statistics and financial economics. As corporate financial structures become more complex, traditional ratio-based linear models often fail to capture nonlinear relationships and higher-order interactions among variables. This study adopts an exploratory statistical framework to reveal multi-level dependency structures in bankruptcy data.
The dataset, obtained from the Taiwanese Bankruptcy Prediction database in the UCI Machine Learning Repository, includes 6,819 firms and 95 financial indicators. An entropy-based association measure constructs a variable similarity matrix, and hierarchical clustering identifies interpretable feature groups. Contingency-table analysis examines conditional distributions and odds ratios between grouped variables and bankruptcy outcomes to detect main and interaction effects. For robustness, the randomness of Alternative and Null contingency-table ensembles is compared, using finite-sample precision to confirm significant associations. The findings reveal higher-order interactions that effectively differentiate bankruptcy risk, underscoring the value of exploring dependency structures in multivariate financial data.
第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 資料介紹 2
第三節 資料分析架構 3
第貳章 文獻探討 6
第參章 研究方法 8
第一節 基於相互條件熵的網絡結構 8
第二節 特徵融合與有限樣本精確度 12
第三節 分裂特徵類別以探索高階交互作用 15
第肆章 資料分析結果 19
第一節 主要效果 19
第二節 二階交互作用 21
第三節 三階與四階交互作用 27
第四節 綜合熱圖分析與結構性解讀 32
第伍章 結論與建議 35
附錄 37
第一節 財務比率變數清單 37
第二節 資料洞察群組效果 41
第三節 高階特徵類別統計表說明 43
參考文獻 46
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全文公開日期 2031/01/05