摘要

《紅樓夢》是一部具有高度思想性和高度藝術性的文學鉅著，其前進思想和表現的寫作技巧，無可置疑的領先同時代的作家和作品。因為其具有獨特的藝術魅力，所以不但廣泛的流傳民間，也成功地站上世界文學之林。

《紅樓夢》雖然膾炙人口且流傳已逾兩百餘年，然而本書真正的作者是誰，卻一直是學者專家們爭論的話題。在大家的印象中，紅樓夢前八十回由清朝曹雪芹所寫，而後四十回則由高鶚所續編完成，但是研究紅樓夢的學者對於此一說法，仍抱著懷疑的態度，不斷的尋求證據以解答此問題的真相。

近年來，學者憑靠著殘存的證據，試圖以各種研究方法予以合理的推論，然時空變遷，只能恢復部分的歷史真相，無法給予完整的復原，而《紅樓夢》的作者究竟是誰，至今尚未有一個大家認同的答案。

本論文嘗試以品種比較、樣本重複性及品種涵蓋率等統計方法，配合電腦的檢索，藉由分析寫作風格及其用字習慣，以統計分析的角度來推論《紅樓夢》的作者。

關鍵詞：紅樓夢、品種問題、樣本重複性、卜瓦松過程。

Abstract

"The Dream of Chamber" is a greatly artistic novel in Chinese literature. Undoubtedly, the writing style and the delicate design of this book lead the other authors and novels at the same time. Because of its distinctive charm, it is wide-spreading not only in China but also in the other country.

Although "The Dream of Chamber" has been spread more than two hundred years, however it also exists a mystery─"Who is the real author of this book？". Most people believe that Sher-Chin Tsao wrote the first 80 chapters, and Gao-E wrote the last 40 chapters. But many have doubt about this statement. People try to find evidence in order to solve this problem, but still have not a persuasive answer.

In this report, we attempt to solve this riddle by statistical analysis, including the methods of species comparing, species overlap, and sample coverage etc., besides, we use computer to search words. We try to infer the author of "The Dream of Chamber" from the statistical point of view.

Keyword: The Dream of Chamber, species comparison, sample coverage. Poisson Process.

參考文獻
中文部分
[1].胡適(1961)，〝紅樓夢考證〞，遠東圖書公司。
[2].高陽(1977)，〝紅樓夢一家言〞，聯經出版社。
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[6].陳大康(1987)，〝從數理語言學看後四十回的作者─與陳炳藻先生商榷〞，紅樓夢學刊，1987年第一輯。第293頁~第318頁。
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[10].余清祥(1998)，〝統計在紅樓夢的應用〞，國立政治大學學報，第七十六期抽印本。
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[12].鄭遂夫(1999)，〝關於《紅樓夢》作者是墨香的問題答記者問〞，紅樓夢學刊，1999年第一輯，第261頁~第267頁。
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英文部分
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