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研究生: 衛嘉定
論文名稱: 美國決策者及國內政治對和解政策形成之影響的研究
指導教授: 關中
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 國際事務學院 - 外交學系
Department of Diplomacy
論文出版年: 1977
畢業學年度: 66
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 180
中文關鍵詞:
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  • 序言
    政策制定和執行是一門錯綜複雜的藝術,它牽涉政治、社會、文化、組織、制度、結構、心理以及行為等各種因素的交互影響。因此,通常探討影響外交政策形成的因素時,或多偏於理論性的說明,而少涉及事件實質內容的分析,或多偏於對某箇危機(例如,韓戰、越戰或古巴危機時美國的外交決策)做箇案的研究,而少涉及平時外交政策的制定,蓋由於影響外交政策形成的因素在理論上要比在實際上便於分析探討,在危機時期要比在平常時期便於認識評估。
    當一九六○年代末期尼克三森就職美國總統以後,在外交上美國改變了以往冷戰時期的方向和實質內容。這反映了外交政策對美國社會的變動,政治的需求,和國外權力結構變遷的反應;其中決策者所表現的強烈特性及國內政治情況的急劇轉變,與過去美、蘇冷戰時期成了鮮明的對照,它們對於政策制定強烈的影響,給我們一個較為容易認識和評估的機會。
    一般人研究尼克森時期美國外交政策的轉變和發展或偏於歷史事件的敘述,或偏於季辛吉思想之研究,或偏於美、蘇軍事戰略的探討,而忽略尼克森人格思想的演變和美國國內政治的轉變對於美國新外交政策形成的影響。本論文共分為四章,凡六節。第一章緒論介紹本文寫作的目的,動機,和所採用的研究方法。第二章敘述美國決策者對於和解政策形成的影響,主要著重於尼克森對國外政治中的事實,條件及情況的考慮以確定他期望達成的目標及方針;以及尼克森人格思想的轉變和他對決策機構的改革所產生的影響。第三章敘述美國國內政治對和解政策形成的影響,主要著重於官僚集團、國會、輿論和大眾傳播媒介對於美國冷戰政策一致性(consensus)的瓦解和和解政策形成的影響。第四章是對本文做一筒總結,並提出箇人的意見。
    本文自開始撰寫至全稿付梓,其間遭遇到許多的困難和挫折,幸賴指導教授關中老師惠借資料,指點迷津,並在百忙之中仔細對本文加以批閱;以及所長 張京育老師所授國際關係一課的啓迪,和當其旅美研究期間對本文所提之寶貴意見並代為複印資料;其次,嘉齡姊和魏鏘姊夫在美代為搜尋所須之書籍;東亞所朱新民同學的熱心協助;申佩璜及董國猷兩位同學的砥礪,方能一一克服。本文又承彭文英小姐在複印資料和整理文稿方面的協助,備極辛勞。本文得以順利完成,得之於他們的協助甚多,謹致以最誠摯的謝忱。
    感謝雙親多年來的培育,以及在精神上和物質上的支持,使我得以順利完成研究所的學業。
    本文為撰者初次習作,謬誤之處自不能免,尚乞師長,同學不吝指正,藉補闕遺。


    第一章 緒論1
    第二章 決策者的影響7
    第一節 決策者的理性因素7
    一、情況的界定7
    (一)越戰7
    (二)美蘇戰略武器相等10
    (三)國際結構的變化17
    二、外交政策目標的選擇19
    三、戰略和策略的選擇24
    第三節 影響決策者心理的因素28
    一、尼克森的人格系統30
    (一)尼克森的人格需要30
    (二)尼克森的心理特質32
    (三)尼克森的政治意識型態35
    二、尼克森對外界環境的意象39
    (一)區域主義約思想39
    (二)和解的思想40
    第三節 組織因素的影響43
    一、季辛吉對美國官僚組織的批評44
    二、尼克森對決策機構的改革47
    (一)集權的和理性的決策模式47
    (二)尼季二人化的決策系統52
    第三章 國內政治的影響71
    第一節 官僚團體的影響71
    一、官僚政治對美國外交政策的一般影響71
    二、國務院對於和解政策產生的影響74
    (一)現代國務卿地位的下降74
    (二)尼克森摒除國務院參與重大決策76
    三、國防部對於和解政策產生的影響81
    (一)越戰的影響83
    (二)尼克森對於軍事官僚參與決策的限制與妥協84
    第二節 國會的影響89
    一、國防預算方面89
    二、美國對外承諾方面96
    三、武力使用方面97
    四、對蘇聯態度方面98
    第三節 輿論與大眾傳播媒介的影響101
    一、輿論的影響102
    (一)輿論對美國國防花費態度的轉變104
    (二)輿論對於美國海外使用武力態度的轉變107
    (三)輿論對蘇聯和武器控制態度的轉變110
    二、大眾傳播媒介的影響114
    (一)傳播媒介對於美國越戰政策態度的轉變116
    (二)大眾傳播媒介對美蘇軍事和解的態度122
    第四章 結論141
    參考書目155
    附表一覽表
    附表一 美蘇戰略核子武器力量成長比較表12
    附表二 一九六四〜一九七五蘇聯海軍在各地區活動增加的情形14
    附表三 東西雙方在歐傳統兵力對照表15
    附表四 美蘇國防各種計劃花費比例圖表16
    附表五 尼克森時期美國國家安全會議體系圖表55
    附表六 美國總統顧問圈的圖表56
    附表七 影響美國國會對國防態度的因素圖表91
    附表八 美國國會自一九五五年至一九七二年對總統所提國防預算案增減表94
    附表九 美國民意對於國防花費的感想統計圖表106
    附表十 一九六四年至一九六八年美國雜誌和報紙讀者原先強硬支持越戰,以後立場變化表121

    一、中文部份
    專書及專論
    尼克森國情咨文,七十年代的美國外交政策:爭取和平的新策略(台北,美國新聞處譯印,一九七○)
    尼克森國情咨文,七十年代的美國外交政策:和平的建立(台北:美國新聞處譯印,一九七一)。
    尼克森國情咨文,七十年代的美國外交政策:形成中的和平結構(台北,美國新聞處譯印,一九七二)。
    尼克森國情咨文,七十年代的美國外交政策:塑造持久的和平(台北,美國新聞處譯印,一九七三)。
    朱炎譯,第二次美國革命(台北:新亞,一九七五)。
    宋文明,「尼季兩人誰應負『和解政策』的主導責任」,聯合報,民六五年十二月三日。紐先鍾譯,美國外交政策的前瞻(台北:軍事譯粹社,民五六)。
    二、西文部分
    (1) Books:
    Agwani, N. S. (ed.), Détente,: Perspectives and Repercussions (Vikas Publishing House Pvt ltd, 1975).
    Almond, Gabriel A., The American People and Foreign Policy (New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1960).
    Aronson, James, The Press and the Cold War (Bobbs-Merrill, 1970).
    Brandon, Henry, The Retreat of American Power (New York: Doubleday, 1971).
    Brodine, Virginia, and Mark Selden, Open Secret: The Kissinger-Nixon Doctrine in Asia (N. Y. Harper & Row, Publishers, Inc., 1972).
    Brown, Seyom, New Forces in World Politics (Washington, B. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1974).
    Brzezinski, Zbigniew, Between Two Ages (New York: Viking Press, 1970).
    Cassiers, Juan, The Hazards of Peace: A European View of Détente, (the Center for International Affairs Harvard University, 1976).
    Chace, James, A World Elsewhere: A New American Foreign Policy. (New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1973).
    Chen, Phillip N., ed., America Changing Role in the 70’s (Taipei: Tankang College of Art & Sciences, 1973).
    Christian, George, The President Steps Down (Macmillan, 1970).
    Cobbledick, James R., Choice in American Foreign Policy: Options for the Future (New York: Thomas Y. Crowell Company, 1973).
    Cohen, Bernard, The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963).
    Crabb, Cecil V. Jr., American Foreign Policy in the Nuclear Age (New York: Harper & Row, 1972).
    Destler, I. M., Presidents, Bureaucrats and Foreign Policy: The Politics of Organizational Reform (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1972).
    Esterline, John H., Robert B. Block, Inside Foreign Policy (California: Mayfield Publishing Company, 1975).
    Evans, Rowland, Jr., Robert D. Novak, Nixon in the White House: The Frustration of Power (New York: Randon House, 1971).
    Fenno, Richard F., The President’s Cabinet (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1959).
    Fenno, Richard F., The Power of the Purse (Boston: Litte, Brown & Co., 1966).
    Frank, Thomas M., and Edward Weisband, Secrecy and Foreign Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1974).
    Fulbright, J. W., The Pentagon Propaganda Machine (New York: Liveright Publishing Corporation, 1970).
    Galbraith, John Kenneth, How to Control the Military (New York: Signet Books, 1969).
    Griffith, William E., and Walt W. Rostow, East-West Relations: is Détente, possible? (Washington D. C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1969).
    Halperin, Morton H., Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1974).
    Head, Richard G. and Erving Rokke, American Defense Policy 3rd ed., (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1973).
    Hilsman, Roger, The Politics of Policy Making in Defense and Foreign Affairs (New
    York: Harper & Row, Publishers, Inc., 1971).
    Huntington, Samuel (P., The Common Defense: Strategre Programs in National Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1961).
    Hungtington, Samuel P., The Soldier and the State (New York: Vintage Books, 1957).
    Johns, Alan M., Jr., ed., U. S. Foreign Policy in a Changing World: The Nixon Administration 1969-1973 (New York: David Mckay Company, Inc., 1973).
    Key, V. O., Jr., Public Opinion and American Democracy (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1961).
    Kissinger, Henry A., The Necessity for Choice (New York: Harper & Row, 1960).
    Kissinger, Henry A., A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh, and the Problems Peace, 1812-22 (Houghton Mifflin, Sentry-ed., n. d.).
    Kissinger, Henry A., Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy (New York; Harper & Brothers, 1957).
    Laird, Melvin R., et al., The Nixon Doctrine(American Enterprise Institute Public Policy Research, 1972).
    Landau, David, Kissinger: The Uses of Power (Boston, 1972).
    Lerche, Charles, A Foreign Policy of the American People (New Jersey: Englewood Cliffs, 1967).
    Lin, C. Y., Kissinger’s Diplomacy (Kings Court Communication, 1975).
    Link, Arthur S., American Epoch: A History of the United States Since 1900, Vol. III (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1974).
    Marvin and Bernard Kalb, Kissinger (Little, Brown, 1974).
    Mazo, Earl and Stephen Hess,. Nixon: A Political Portrait (New York: Harper & Row, 1968). Merli, Frank J. and Theodore A. Wilson, Makers of American Diplomacy: From Benjamin Franklin to Henry Kissinger (New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1974).
    Neal, Fred Warner, and Mary Kersey Harvey, ed., Pacem in Terris III: The Nixon- kissinger Foreign Policy: Opportunities and Contradictions (Fund for the Republic, Inc., 1974).
    Neustadt, Richard E., Presidential Power (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Science Edition, 1962).
    Nimmo, Dan and Thomas D. Ungs, American Political Patterns: Conflict and Consensus (Boston: Litte, Brown & Co., 1969).
    Nuechterlein, Donald E., United States National Interests in a Changing World (The University Press of Kentucky, 1973).
    Osgood, Robert E., Robert Tucker, Francis E. Rourke, et al, Retreat From Empire? The First Nixon Administration (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1973).
    Osgood, Robert E., Robert Tucker, Francis E. Rourke, et al, America and The World: From the Truman Doctrine to Vietnam (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1970).
    Owen, Henry, The Next Phase in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution 1973).
    Owen, Henry, and Charles L. Schultze, ed., Setting National Priorities: The Next Ten Years (Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1976).
    Pranger, Robert J. ed., Détente, and Defense: a reader (Washington, D. C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research 1976).
    Petrov, Viadimie, U. S.-Soviet Détente,: Past and Future (Washington, D. C.: AEI, 1975).
    Ranson, Harry H., Can American Democracy Survive Cold War? (Garder City, N. Y.: Doubleday & Co., 1964).
    Reston., James, The Artillery of the Press (New York: Harper & Row, 1967).
    Rockefeller, John D. 3rd, The Second American Revolution (Harper & Row, 1973).
    Rosenau, James N., Public Opinion and Foreign Policy (New York: N. Y., 1961).
    Rosenau, James N., Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy (New York: The Free Press of Glencoe, 1967).
    Rosenau, James N., International Politics and Foreign Policy, revised edition (New York: The Free Press, 1969).
    Safire, William, Before the Fall (Doubleday, 1975).
    Schwab, George, and Henry Friedlander, Détente, in Historical Perspective: the First Cuny Conference on History and Politics (N.Y.: Cyrco Press, 1975).
    Seabury, Paul & Aaron Wildavsky, ed., U. S. Foreign Policy; Perspectives and Proposals for the 1970s (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1969).
    Seidman, Harold, Politics, Position and Power: The Dynamics of Federal Organization 2nd ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1975).
    Sigal, Leon V., Reporters and Officials: The Organization and Politics of Newsmaking (Lexington, Mass: D. C. Heath, 1973).
    Steibal, Gerald L., Détente,: Promises and Pitfalls (New York: Crane, Russak & Company, Inc., 1975).
    Toledano, Ralph de, One man Alone; Richard Nixon (New York: Funk & Wagnalls, 1969).
    U. S. Army War College, National Security and Détente, (Thomas Y. Crowell Company, 1976).
    Watts, Williams and Lloyd A Free ed., State of the Nation (New York: Universe Books, Potomac Associates, 1972).
    Whetten, Lawrence L., Contemporary American Foreign Policy: Minimal Diplomacy, Defensive Strategy, and Détente, Management (Lexington (mass.): Lexington Books, 1974).
    Whitson, William W. ed., Foreign Policy and U. S. National Security (New York: Praeger Publishers Inc., 1976).
    Wilcox, Francis O., Congress, The Executive, and Foreign Policy (New York: Harper & Row, Publisher, Inc., 1971).
    Wills, Garry, Nixon Agonistes (New York: Signet Books, 1971).
    (2) Articles:
    Aberbach, Joel D. and Bert A. Rockman, “Clashing Beliefs within the Executive Branch:
    The Nixon Administration Bureaucracy,” American Political Science Review, Vol.70, June 1976.
    Ball, George W., “We are Playing a Dangerous Game with Japan,” New York Times Magazine, June 25, 1972.
    Brock, William E. III, “Détente, and Containment-the Dangers of Semantics” The Journal of Social & Political Affairs, January 1976.
    Brown, MacAlister, “The Demise of State Department Public Opinion Polls: A Study in
    Legislative Oversight,” Midwest Journal of Political Sciences 5 (February, 1961).
    Buchan, Alastair, “A World Restored?” Foreign Affairs, July 1972.
    Buchan, Alastair, “The Irony of Kissinger,” International Affairs, July 1974.
    Brzezinski, Zbigniew, “America in a Hostile World,” Foreign Policy, Summer 1976.
    Brzezinski, Zbigniew, “The Deceptive Structure of Peace,” Foreign Policy, Spring 1974.
    Brzezinski, Zbigniew, “U.S. Foreign Policy: The Search for Faust,” Foreign Affairs, July 1972.
    Brzezinski, Zbigniew, “The Balance of Power Delusion,” Foreign Policy, Summer 1972.
    Brzezinski, Zbigniew, “How the Cold War Was Played,” Foreign Affairs, Oct. 1972.
    Brzezinski, Zbigniew, “The Framework of East-West Reconciliation,” Foreign Affairs, Oct. 1967.
    Coffey, J. I., “Détente,, Arms Control and European Security,” International Affairs, January 1976,
    Conquest, Robert, “The Limits of Détente,,” Foreign Affairs, July 1968.
    Converse, Philip E., Howard Schuman, “Silent Majorities and the Vietnam War,” Scientific American, June 1970.
    Department of State Bulletin, July 26, 1971.
    Department of State Bulletin, February 24, 1969.
    Destler, I. M., “The Nixon System: A Further Look,” Foreign Service Journal, February 1974.
    Deutsch, Karl W. and J. David Singer,” Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability” in James N. Resenau, ed., International Politics and Foreign Policy (revised edition, 1969).
    Facts on File, January 19, 1974.
    George, Alexander L., “The Case for Multiple Advocacy in Making Foreign Policy,” The American Political Science Review, Vol.66, September 1972.
    Harris, Louis Poll, “The Limits of Containment,” Time (May 2, 1969).
    Hilsman, Roger, “Congressional- Executive Relations and the Foreign Policy Consensus,” American Political Science Review, 52, no.3, September 1958.
    Hoffmann, Stanley, “Will the Balance Balance at Home? ” Foreign Policy 7, Summer 1972.
    Hoffmann, Stanley, “Weighing the Balance of Power,” Foreign Affairs, July 1972.
    Knaft, Joseph, “It’s Time to Depersonalize Our Diplomacy,” Sun, March 17, 1974.
    Kintner, William R., “The U.S. and the USSR.: Conflict and Cooperation” Orbis, Fall 1973.
    Kissinger, Henry A., “The End of Bipolarity,” in Agenda for the Nation (Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1968).
    Kissinger, Henry A., “Central Issues of American Foreign Policy,” in Agenda for the Nation (Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1968).
    Kissinger, Henry A., “Domestic Structure and Foreign Policy,” Daedalus, April 1966.
    Labedz, Leopild, “USA and the World Today: Kissinger and After,” Survey, Winter 1976.
    Laquenr’s, Walter, “Kissinger and the Politics of Détente,” Commentary, Vol.56, no.6, December 1973.
    Markel, Lester, “Public Opinion and the War in Vietnam,” New York Times Magazine, Aug. 8, 1965.
    Naxey, David, “How Nixon Decided to Invade Cambodia,” Look, August 1970.
    New York Times, March 10, 1971.
    New York Times Editorial, February 19, 1970.
    Nixon, Richard, “Asia After Viet Nam,” Foreign Affairs, Oct. 1967.
    Orr, Samuel C., “Defense Report/National Security Council Network Gives White House Tight Rein Over SALT Strategy,” National Journal 3 (April 24, 1971).
    Pett, Saul, “Henry A. Kissinger: Logal Retainer or Nixon’s Svengali ?” Washington Post, August 23, 1970.
    Pfaltzgraff, Robert L. Jr., “Multipolarity, Alliances, and U. S.-Soviet-Chinese Relations,” Orbis, Fall 1973.
    Ra’anan, Uri, “The Washington-Moscow-Peking Triangle,” Orbis, Fall 1975.
    Rosecrance, Richard N., “Détente, or Entente? ” Foreign Affairs, April 1975.
    Rubinstein, Alvin I., “Soviet-American Relations,” Current History, Oct. 1974.
    Rubinstein, Alvin I., “The Elusive Parameters of Détente,” Orbis, Winter 1976.
    Russett, Bruce M., Miroslav Nincio, ”American Opinion on the Use of Military Force Abroad,” Political Science Quarterly 91, no.3, Fall 1976.
    Special Report, “Opinion on the Campus,” National Review, Vo1.33, June 15, 1971.
    Time, June 8, 1970.
    Viorst, Milton, “William Rogers Thinks Like Richard Nixon,” New York Times Magazine, February 27, 1972.
    Windson, Philip, “The foundries of Détente,” The World Today, June 1969.
    Wright, James D., “Life, Time, and the Fortunes of War,” Transaction (now Society), 9, no.3, January 1972.

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