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研究生: 邱惠玉
Chiu, Huei-Yu
論文名稱: 混合型資料下之單位根檢定研究:平均概似比統計量之建立與模擬
Panel Unit Root Test
指導教授: 汪義育博士
郭炳伸博士
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 1999
畢業學年度: 87
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 63
中文關鍵詞: 混合型資料單位根檢定單根檢定非恆定共積關係Trace檢定概似比統計量LLC檢定
外文關鍵詞: panel data, unit root, IPS test, nonstationary, cointegration, Trace test, likelihood ratio test, LLC test
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  • 自Nelson和Plosser (1982)後,研究經濟資料是否具有單位根現象,已成為近二十年來熱門且重要的課題。因

    為資料性質的不同(恆定或非恆定),對實證計量模型的設定、統計推論以及原理論的發展有深遠的影響。與傳

    統探討單一時間數列之單位根的論文不同的是,本篇論文將橫斷面的資料擴大,探討混合型資料的單位根現象

    ( Panel Unit Root )。就此課題,文獻上已有兩個不同的檢定方法: Levin、Lin和Chu (1997)的LLC檢定法以及Im、

    Pesaran和Shin (1995)的IPS檢定法。

    我們的研究,有別於以上兩者,是從「概似比」的角度(likelihood ratio) 和應用檢定共積關係的Johansen

    (1988)「Trace檢定」,建構新的單位根檢定統計量。首先於文中推導出,「Trace檢定」可用於檢測單一時間數

    列的單位根現象。進而,再將橫斷面資料擴大,採用mean group方法,加總平均每個橫斷面時間數列的「Trace

    檢定」統計量,形成混合型資料之單位根檢定統計量 。根據中央極限定理,標準化後的 檢定統計量,極限上

    收斂至標準常態分配。此外,我們也推導得出 檢定統計量與傳統ADF、LLC以及IPS檢定統計量極限上的關係。

    最後,我們以「蒙地卡羅」模擬方法,分析小樣本下「型一誤差」與「檢定力」的表現。發現新的混合型資

    料之單位根檢定統計量表現優良,近似於標準常態分配。故在做混合型資料的單位根分析時,採用 檢定統計

    量,可得到較精確的推論。


    第一章 前言

    第二章 文獻回顧與探討
    第一節 單一時間數列之單位根檢定
    第二節 混合型資料之單位根檢定

    第三章 新檢定方法
    第一節 「共積」與「TRACE檢定」
    第二節 新檢定統計量
    第三節 新檢定統計量的極限分配

    第四章 新檢定統計量的模擬與分析
    第一節 模擬設計
    第二節 模擬的分析比較

    第五章 結論與未來研究方向
    第一節 結論
    第二節 未來研究的方向

    參考文獻

    附表

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