| 研究生: |
黃瑜萍 Huang, Yu-Ping |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
深度強化學習之模型比較: 以股票自動交易系統為例 A Comparison of Deep Reinforcement Learning Models: The Case of Stock Automated Trading System |
| 指導教授: |
蔡炎龍
Tsai, Yen-Lung 蕭明福 Shaw, Ming-Fu |
| 口試委員: |
蔡炎龍
Tsai, Yen-Lung 蕭明福 Shaw, Ming-Fu 陳天進 Chen, Ten-Ging |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2021 |
| 畢業學年度: | 109 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 46 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 深度學習 、強化學習 、深度 Q 學習 、匯率 、股票交易 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Deep learning, Reinforcement learning, Deep Q learning, Exchange rate, Stock trading |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202100671 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:432 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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本研究引入深度 Q 學習方法,建構一個自動化股票交易系統,研究範圍包含台灣股票市場 14 家科技業公司。研究期間為 2016 年 1 月 4 日至 2020年 12 月 31 日。本研究數據資料有兩種型態 (1) 股票資訊,(2) 股票資訊加上匯率參數。我們將深度 Q 學習的模型,與不同模型和其他策略相比較,以檢測深度 Q 學習是否更適用於股票交易。實證結果發現支持向量機與神經網路在實務面上難以進行股票交易操作,而深度 Q 學習的模型則具有相對好的成效。尤其,加入匯率參數的深度 Q 學習,獲得的報酬皆優於買入持有策略和台灣加權股價指數。
This research introduces the Deep Q learning model to construct an automated stock trading system. Our samples are 14 Taiwanese technology companies. Specifically, we include two types of data, (1) stock information and (2) stock information and exchange rate parameters, which are collected from the Taiwan stock market. The sampling period is from Jan 4, 2016 to Dec 31, 2020. We compare our main model, Deep Q learning, with different models and strategies to examine whether Deep Q learning is more applicable to stock trading. The empirical results show that it is difficult for Support vector machines and Neural networks to operate stock trading; however, Deep Q learning demonstrates better performance. In particular, the return rate of the Deep Q learning model is higher than the Buy-and-hold strategy and Taiwan Weighted Stock Index if considering exchange rate parameters.
致謝 i
中文摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 強化學習簡述 1
第三節 問題設定 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
第一節 匯率與股市關聯性 3
第二節 強化學習在金融領域之應用 3
第三章 機器學習與深度學習模型探討 5
第一節 支持向量機 5
第二節 神經網路 7
一、神經網路架構 9
二、激發函數 10
三、損失函數 12
第三節 強化學習 14
一、馬可夫決策過程 15
二、價值函數 16
三、蒙地卡羅法及時差學習法 17
四、深度強化學習 19
第四章 資料來源及說明 21
第一節 股票資訊 21
第二節 匯率參數 22
第三節 模型使用類型輸入資料 22
第五章 實證結果 24
第一節 模型結構介紹 24
第二節 支持向量機、神經網路對於股票資訊預測 24
第三節 深度強化學習模型之結構變化與過程 28
第四節 深度強化學習模型實證結果 34
一、深度強化學習與買入持有策略 34
二、深度強化學習與台灣加權股價指數 36
三、深度 Q 學習綜合比較 38
四、預測模型 (支持向量機、神經網路) 與深度強化學習模型之比較 42
第六章 結論與未來展望 43
參考文獻 44
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全文公開日期 2026/07/01