| 研究生: |
謝冠生 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
一般帳戶投資型年金之資產負債管理:免疫理論與最適資產配置之應用 |
| 指導教授: | 王儷玲 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 風險管理與保險學系 Department of Risk Management and Insurance |
| 論文出版年: | 2001 |
| 畢業學年度: | 89 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 126 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 免疫理論 、利率風險 、隨機利率期間模型 、存續期間 、最適資產配置 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Immunization Theory, Interest Rate Risk, Stochastic Term Structure Model, Duration, Optimal Asset Allocation |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:157 下載:78 |
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本研究主要是針對投資型年金之資產負債管理作探討,其中是就規避利率風險對於資產負債管理上的影響以及分析資產配置最適化作為研究的架構,而所利用的研究方法乃是取決於建構利率隨機模型並輔以免疫理論與Markowitz投資組合理論,以期在規避利率風險的同時,亦能將資產配置達至最佳化。
首先,為實際模擬出符合現實經濟環境變動下的隨機利率期間模型,本研究利用C.I.R利率期間結構模型來建構年金保單期間的利率結構,並且由於投資型年金之保單價值的累積特性,因此本研究同時亦建構出連接保單價值的投資資產之報酬率型態,進而模擬出各期之現金流量以及各項投資資產的存續期間;再者,藉由Markowitz投資組合理論,以在免疫條件之限制下進行最適資產配置之評估。
最後,以某知名的保險公司所推出的投資型年金商品作為本研究之實證對象,透過模擬之方法,將研究模型中之各項參數予以評估,並且根據上述之研究過程將免疫理論與投資組合理論相連接,以檢視投資型年金商品在規避利率風險的狀態下,其最適之資產配置比例是否與現行法令之規範相牴觸,而能給予適時之建議。另外,由本實證結果可知,經由本研究的分析流程,可以有效地給予年金管理者規劃出年金資產負債管理時的最適投資組合比例,並且在增加外國投資資產時,更能有效的增加年金資產之報酬,同時也不影響保險法對於投資資產的比例與總金額之限制。再者,對於探討規避利率風險前後之資產組合之資產報酬之變化時,可以進一步了解到,當年金管理者在運用免疫策略來規避利率風險時,其所面對的風險成本之多寡,以作為制定避險決策時的依據。
This research explores the asset-liability management (ALM) for the Investment-Link-Annuity. Two aspects investigated in this research are the interest rate risk and the optimal asset allocation. Moreover, the major issue investigated here is the trade-off between the optimal investment return and the hedge of interest rate risk. We refer this trade-off as ALM cost. By using stochastic interest rate model, Immunization theory and Portfolio Selection Model, we construct an ALM model to achieve the optimal asset allocation given on hedging the interest rate risk under the immunization strategies for the insurance company. First, we utilize the public trading data for investment market in Taiwan and in USA from 1985 to 2000 and the investment-link annuity product of a well-know insurance company in Taiwan to simulate the cash flow and demonstrate the implementation of our model.
By analyzing different simulations under various scenarios, the empirical results are as the followings:
1.The ALM cost for immunization strategies is very small, and is estimated to be about 1% to 2%. Therefore, we suggest that insurance companies should start to undertake the asset liability management as soon as possible.
2.If relaxing the investment restrictions of Insurance Law or allowing insurance company to invest in foreign investment market, the overall investment return will be increased and the ALM cost will be reduced effectively.
封面頁
證明書
論文摘要
致謝詞
目錄
表目錄
圖目錄
第一章 緒論
1.1 研究動機與目的
1.2 研究方法與法令規範
1.2.1 研究方法
1.2.2 法令規範
1.3 研究範圍與流程
1.4 研究範圍
1.5 論文架構
第二章 相關文獻探討
2.1 免疫理論在資產負債管理上之分析
2.2 存續期間之緣由與發展
2.3 動態利率期間結構
第三章 實證資料與研究模型
3.1 實證資料與精算模擬假設
3.2 研究模型
3.2.1 連續時間動態利率模型之建立
3.2.1.1 地SiCek隨機利率期間結構模型與參數估計
3.2.1.2 CIR隨機利率期間結市觀翹型與參數估計
3.2.2 Markowitz投資組合理論與免疫理論
3.2 實證研究之情境假設與步驟
3.3.1 實證研究之情境假設
3.3.2 實證研究之步驟
3.3.2.1 模擬利率期間結構
3.3.2.2 保單價值計價基礎之報酬率
3.3.2.3 模擬現金流量
3.3.2.4 資產負債面之存續期間之計算
3.3.2.5 負債面之存續期間
3.4 電腦模擬過程
第四章 實證結果與分析
第五章 結論與建議
5.1 結論
5.2 研究建議
5.3 後續研究建議
參考文獻
附錄
附錄A 年金生命表
附錄B 年金參與者型態組成
附錄C 歷年投資標的之投資報酬率
附錄D 模擬100次時的資產與負債之總貼現值
附錄E 負債面之存續期間值
附錄F 電腦模擬程式(MATLAB)
附錄G 未限制保單貸款比例時的最適資產配置
附錄H 單貸款迴歸模型預測
附錄I 限制保單貸款比例時的最適資產配置
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