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| 研究生： |
林銘峰 Lin, Ming Feng |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
政府公債佔GDP的最適比率 The optimal ratio of public debt to GDP |
| 指導教授： |
黃俞寧
Hwang, Yu Ning |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年： | 2011 |
| 畢業學年度： | 99 |
| 語文別： | 英文 |
| 論文頁數： | 28 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | DSGE 、政府公債 、國內生產毛額 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | DSGE, public debt, GDP |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：294 下載：18 |
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本文研究目的是在動態隨機一般均衡模型當中，討論政府公債佔國內生產毛額的最適比率。本文建立一封閉經濟體系，討論政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率改變時，對主要的經濟變數有何影響。不同於先前的研究，我們假設在極大化福利的前提下，找尋最適的政府公債佔國內生產毛額比率。靜止均衡的分析發現，政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率與消費呈現正向變動的關係，與產出和勞動有著負向變動的關係。除此之外，當政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率增加時，福利水準會越來越低，因此，最適的公債比率為零。
The objective of this paper is to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by using a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this paper, the model that we build is a closed economy. We discuss the effect of the optimal public debt to GDP ratio on primary variables. Different from previous research, we look for the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP that will maximize welfare. In the steady state analysis, we find that the ratio of public debt to GDP has the positive effect on consumption and negative effect on output and labor. Furthermore, the welfare level is lowered with the rise in the debt ratios to GDP. Thus, the optimal debt ratio should be 0.
1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………1
1.1 Motivation………………………………………………………………………1
1.2 Literature review………………………………………………………………..3
2. The model…………………………………………………………………………...5
2.1 Household……………………………………………………………………….5
2.2 Firms…………………………………………………………………………….7
2.2.1 Final goods………………………………………………………………..7
2.2.2 Intermediate goods………………………………………………………8
2.3 Government………………………………………………………………...….10
2.4 Monetary policy…………………………………………………………….....10
2.5 Market clearing conditions……………………………………….…………....11
2.6 Exogenous variables………………………………………………………...…11
3. Steady state…………………………………………………………………...……11
3.1 The steady state solution………………………………………………………11
3.2 Parameters and calibration…………………………………………………....13
3.3 Steady state analysis………………………………………………………...…14
3.4 Long run effect of debt ratio……………………………………………..…….15
3.5 Dynamic…………………………………………………………………….....18
3.5.1 Productivity shock ………………………………………………...…….18
3.5.2 Government expenditure shock……………………………….…………19
3.5.3 Welfare analysis………………………………………………….………19
4. Conclusion………………………………………………………………………....21
Reference……………………………………………………………………………..22
Appendix1: Optimal price setting………………………………………...………….24
Appendix2: The analytical solution on steady state….……………………...……….25
Appendix3: The graph of shocks…………………..…………………………..……..27
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