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研究生: 侯俊宇
Hou, Jun Yu
論文名稱: 開放性、犧牲比率與通貨膨脹:工具變數分量迴歸模型之應用
Openness, sacrifice ratio, and inflation: application of instrumental variable quantile regression
指導教授: 林馨怡
Lin, Hsin Yi
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 82
中文關鍵詞: 通貨膨脹犧牲比率開放性分量迴歸內生性追蹤資料
外文關鍵詞: Inflation, Sacrifiece Ratio, Openness, Quantile Regression, Endogeneity, Panel Data
相關次數: 點閱:498下載:58
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  • 開放性與通貨膨脹之間的關係一直是總體經濟學中重要的議題。Romer (1993) 使用 Kydland and Prescott (1977) 和 Barro and Gordan (1983) 的模型進行分析,發現開放性增加會使的降低背離法則的誘因。本篇論文使用 Galvao (2008), Galvao and Montes-Rojas (2009), 和 Harding and Lamarche (2009) 的追蹤資料工具變數分量回歸模型進行分析,同時也以實證分析開放性和犧牲比率之間的關係。在考慮的開放性的內生性之後,我們發現在通膨越高的國家其開放性的影響越大,動態不一致性也越嚴重。


    The relationship between openness and inflation is an important issue in macroeconomics. Romer (1993) uses the models of Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordan (1983) to argue that greater openness will reduce the policymakers' incentive to deviate from the rule. Cukierman, Webb, and Neyapti (1992) and Romer (1993) have an idea that countries with less political stability have a higher probability to violate the pre-committed monetary policies. In addition, as proposed by Romer (1993), the openness may be endogenous when analyzing the relationship between openness and inflation. Thus,
    we apply instrumental variable quantile regression for panel data proposed by Galvao (2008), Galvao and Montes-Rojas (2009), and Harding and Lamarche (2009) to test whether or not the negative effects of openness is stronger when inflation is higher. We also do the empirical work between openness and the sacrifice ratio to test the mechanism that openness affects inflation established by Romer (1993). After dealing with the potential endogeneity of openness, we find that when the inflation is higher the negative effect of openness is stronger. As the argument of Romer (1993), our empirical results show that the time inconsistency problem is more serious in countries with higher inflation. But our empirical results show that the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio is positive which is different from the mechanism established by Romer (1993).

    1 Introduction 1
    2 Literature Review 4
    2.1 The Openness and Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
    2.2 The Openness and Sacrifice Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . 9
    2.3 The Financial Openness and Inflation . . . . . . . . 13
    2.4 The Endogeneity of Openness . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
    3 Model 17
    3.1 Quantile Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
    3.2 Quantile Regression with Endogeneity . . . . . . . . 18
    3.3 Quantile Regression for Panel Data with Endogeneity 21
    3.3.1 Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
    3.3.2 Large Sample Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
    4 Empirical Results 28
    4.1 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
    4.2 Cross-Sectional Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
    4.2.1 The Openness and Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . 31
    4.2.2 The Openness and Sacrifice Ratio . . . . . . . 33
    4.3 Panel Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
    4.3.1 Basic Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
    4.3.2 Exchange Rate Regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
    4.3.3 The Degree of Indebtedness . . . . . . . . . . . 40
    4.3.4 The Degree of Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
    5 Conclusion 43
    Reference 45
    A Tables and Figures 50
    B Data Description 72
    C List of Countries 73
    C.1 All Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
    C.2 Severely Debted Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
    C.3 Moderately Debted Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
    C.4 Less Debted Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
    C.5 High Income Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
    C.6 Middle Income Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
    C.7 Low Income Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

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