本研究從日本自由民主黨「派閥政治」的視角，深入探討1996年至2024年間日本對中國外交政策的演變與搖擺軌跡。過去近三十年來，日本的對中政策在「友好合作」、「政冷經熱」與「戰略圍堵」之間來回擺盪，呈現出經濟互賴與安全對立並存的矛盾現象。傳統國際關係理論多聚焦於國際體系與結構變數，難以充分解釋此一頻繁的政策變異，因此本研究將分析焦點下移至日本的國內政治層次。研究旨在探究自民黨派閥如何透過內閣人事配置、黨內決策審議程序與非正式外交管道等三大機制，將外部結構壓力轉譯並形塑出日本對中政策的實質內容。本研究建構了涵蓋歷史認識、安全議題、臺灣問題、經濟交流及政治對話等五個維度的評估矩陣，打破傳統親中與反中的二元框架。藉此將主要派閥重新劃分為以宏池會與平成研究會為主的「對中全面交流派」，以及以清和政策研究會為首的「對中維持政冷經熱派」。同時，研究結合多層次分析與過程追蹤法，歸納出派閥在不同歷史與外交情境下，分別扮演了「政策主導者」、「交流促進者」與「危機管理者」等三種關鍵角色。最後，本研究針對2024年初因政治獻金醜聞導致自民黨主要派閥面臨歷史性解散的事件進行評估。總結並前瞻在缺乏派閥制衡的「後派閥時代」下，首相官邸主導的集權化決策趨勢，將對未來日中關係的穩定性與東亞區域秩序產生何種深遠的結構性影響。

This study examines Japan's fluctuating China policy from 1996 to 2024 through the lens of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) factional politics. Because traditional international relations theories struggle to explain the frequent policy shifts between friendly cooperation and strategic containment, this research shifts its focus to domestic political dynamics. It investigates how LDP factions translate external structural pressures into substantive policies via cabinet appointments, intra-party decision-making procedures, and informal diplomatic channels. To move beyond the traditional pro-China versus anti-China dichotomy, the study constructs a fivedimension evaluative matrix—encompassing historical perception, security, Taiwan, economic exchange, and political dialogue—to reclassify major factions into either a "comprehensive engagement" camp or a "politically cold but economically engaged" camp. Utilizing multi-level analysis and process tracing, the research demonstrates how factions have acted as policy leaders, engagement promoters, or crisis managers across different historical contexts. Finally, by evaluating the historic dissolution of major factions following the 2024 political fundraising scandal, the study highlights how centralized, prime minister-led decision-making in the "post-factional era" will structurally impact the future stability of Sino-Japanese relations and the East Asian regional order.

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