莫斯科公國的崛起是理解俄羅斯國家形成與古羅斯政治秩序重組的重要問題。蒙古征服後，古羅斯諸公國在不同程度上被納入金帳汗國宗主體系之下；然而，最終取得區域主導地位者，並非早期較具優勢的諾夫哥羅德或特維爾，而是原先地位並不突出的莫斯科公國。本文採取攻勢現實主義與歷史制度主義的雙理論分工，分析莫斯科如何在金帳汗國宗主權逐步鬆動的條件下，累積相對權力並形成統治能力。攻勢現實主義用以說明外部權力結構變化，尤其是金帳汗國中央權威衰退後，古羅斯地區競爭加劇，促使莫斯科透過壓制競爭者與擴張勢力，逐步取得區域優勢。歷史制度主義則用以說明內部制度能力的形成，指出莫斯科透過汗廷冊封、代徵貢賦與宗教正當性取得有利位置，並進一步發展出財政集中、繼承穩定、軍事動員、土地制度與菁英整合等能力。本論文認為，莫斯科公國的崛起並非單一因素所致，而是外部權力結構變化與內部制度能力累積相互作用的結果。外部結構提供擴張壓力與行動空間，內部制度能力則使莫斯科能夠有效運用此一機會，最終形成古羅斯地區的區域主導地位。

The rise of the Principality of Moscow is important for understanding the formation of the Russian state and the reorganization of the political order of Rus’. After the Mongol conquest, the Rus’ principalities were incorporated to varying degrees into the suzerain system of the Golden Horde. However, the polity that eventually became dominant was not Novgorod or Tver, but the originally less prominent Principality of Moscow.
This thesis adopts a dual theoretical framework based on offensive realism and historical institutionalism. Offensive realism is used to analyze the external level, explaining how the decline of the Golden Horde’s authority intensified competition among the Rus’ principalities and created opportunities for Moscow’s expansion. Historical institutionalism is used to analyze the internal level, explaining how Moscow transformed Mongol authorization, tribute collection, and religious legitimacy into durable governing capacity, including fiscal centralization, succession stability, military mobilization, land institutions, and elite integration.
This thesis argues that Moscow’s rise was not caused by a single factor, but by the interaction between changes in the external power structure and the accumulation of internal institutional capacity. External pressure created opportunities for expansion, while internal institutional capacity enabled Moscow to use these opportunities and establish regional dominance in Rus’.

一、中文：

（一）專書：

李邁先，《俄國史（上）》（台北：聯經，2000年）。
趙竹成，《俄羅斯民族國家建構中蒙古金帳汗國的影響》（臺北市 : 蒙藏委員會，1999年）。
葉至誠，《社會科學概論》（台北：揚智文化，2021年）。
鄧沛勇、王目坤、孫慧穎，《俄國社會階層與歷史變遷（1700–1900）》（桂林：廣西師範大學出版社，2024年），頁10-12。

（二）譯本：

格列科夫、雅庫布斯基 著，余大鈞譯，《金帳汗國興衰史》（北京：商務印書館，1985年）。
克柳切夫斯基 著，賈宗誼、張開譯，《俄國史教程：第二卷》（北京：商務印書館，2013年）。
馬丁·思科史密斯 著，周全 主譯，《俄羅斯一千年》（台北：左岸文化，2016年）。

（三）期刊：

王宇博，〈在火與劍中誕生的莫斯科公國〉，《歷史月刊》，第 219 期（2006 年），頁81-85。
毛晨嵐，〈論拜占廷與莫斯科公國的興起〉，《齊齊哈爾大學學報》，第5期（2011年），頁88-96。
吳玉山、傅澤民，〈霸權與挑戰：國際關係理論的詮釋〉，《問題與研究》，第 1 期第 62 卷（2023 年），頁1-45。
孫嵩霞，〈從民主成分衰落到專制制度形成：13–15 世紀蒙古對古羅斯政治發展的影響〉，《山東大學學報》，第2期（2016年），頁152。
陳世榮，〈國家與地方社會的互動：近代社會菁英的研究典範與未來的研究趨勢〉，《近代史研究所集刊》，第54期第12卷（2006年），頁129-168。
蔡相廷，〈歷史制度主義的興起與研究取向：政治學研究途徑的探討〉，《臺北市立教育大學學報》，第2期第41卷（2010年），頁39-72。

二、英文：

（一）專書

Billington, James H. The Icon and the Axe: An Interpretive History of Russian Culture (New York: Vintage Books, 1970)
Collier, Ruth Berins, & Collier, David, Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America (Princeton University Press, 1991)
Crummey Robert O., The Formation of Muscovy, 1304-1613 (London and New York: Longman, 1987)
Fennell, John L. I. The Emergence of Moscow, 1304-1359 (London: Secker & Warburg, 1968)
Figes, Orlando. Natasha’s Dance: A Cultural History of Russia (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2002)
George, Alexander L., and Andrew Bennett. Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005)
Gerring, John. Case Study Research: Principles and Practices (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2017)
Grygiel, Jakub J. Great Powers and Geopolitical Change (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006)
Gulevych Vladyslav, “Expansion of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in the Middle and the Second Half of the Fourteenth Century and Its Relations with the Horde,” in Alexander V. Maiorov and Roman Hautala eds., The Routledge Handbook of the Mongols and Central-Eastern Europe: Political, Economic, and Cultural Relations (Abingdon, Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2021)
Halperin, Charles J. Russia and the Golden Horde: The Mongol Impact on Medieval Russian History (Bloomington: Indiana University Press; 1985)
Langer, Lawrence N. “Between the Politics of Accommodation and Independence: Rus’, the Mongols, and the Church, 1237-1350.” In The Routledge Handbook of the Mongols and Central-Eastern Europe: Political, Economic, and Cultural Relations, edited by Alexander V. Maiorov and Roman Hautala, 487–500 (Abingdon, Oxon; New York: Routledge, 2021)
Lipset M. Seymour and Rokkan Stein, Party systems and voter alignments: cross-national perspectives (New York: Free Press, 1967)
March, James G., and Johan P. Olsen. Rediscovering Institutions: The Organizational Basis of Politics (New York: Free Press, 1989)
Martin, Janet. Medieval Russia, 980-1584 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995)
Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 2001)
Morgenthau, Hans J. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. 5th ed (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1978)
North, Douglass Cecil, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990)
Ostrowski, Donald. Muscovy and the Mongols: Cross-Cultural Influences on the Steppe Frontier, 1304-1589 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998)
Ostrogorsky, George. History of the Byzantine State (New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1969)
Perrie, Maureen, ed. The Cambridge history of Russia. Volume 1: From Early Rus' to 1689 (Cambridge, U.K. ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 2006)
Riasanovsky, Nicholas Valentine. A History of Russia (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984)
Riasanovsky, Nicholas Valentine, and Mark D. Steinberg. A History of Russia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018)
Rowell, S. C. Lithuania Ascending: A Pagan Empire Within East-Central Europe, 1295-1345 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994)
Thelen Kathleen, How Institutions Evolve: The Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004)
Walt, Stephen M, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987)

（二）期刊論文

Brover-Lubovsky, Bella. The ‘Greek Project’ of Catherine the Great and Giuseppe Sarti, Journal of Musicological Research (Vol. 32, No. 1, Jan 2013), pp. 28-61.
Duncan, Peter J. S. Contemporary Russian Identity Between East and West, The Historical Journal (Vol. 48, No. 1, March 2005), pp. 277-294.
Grygiel, Jakub J. The Primacy of Premodern History. Security Studies (Vol. 22, No. 1 Jan 2013), pp. 1-32.
Halperin, Charles J., George Vernadsky, Eurasianism, the Mongols, and Russia, Slavic Review（Vol. 41, No. 3, Autumn 1982), pp. 477-493.
Halperin, Charles J. Review of Muscovy and the Mongols: Cross-Cultural Influences on the Steppe Frontier, 1304–1589, by Donald Ostrowski. The Sixteenth Century Journal, (Vol. 30, No. 2, Summer 1999), pp. 517-518.
Hall, Peter A, Rosemary C. R. Taylor. Political Science and the Three New Institutionalisms, Political Studies (Vol. 44, No. 5 , December 1996), pp. 936-957.
Kazhdan, Alexander, review of Byzantium and the Rise of Russia: A Study of Byzantino-Russian Relations in the Fourteenth Century, by John Meyendorff, Speculum (Vol. 57, No. 1, Jan 1982), pp.155-157.
Lukin, Pavel V., and S. V. Polekhov. Why Did Lord Novgorod the Great Fall? The Novgorod Republic and Its Neighbors in 1470–1471. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Vol. 92, Suppl. May 2022), pp. S367-S384.
Pierson, Paul, Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics, American Political Science Review (Vol. 94, No. 2 Jun 2000), pp. 251-267.
Rowland, Daniel B. Moscow—The Third Rome or the New Israel? The Russian Review (Vol.55 , No. 4, October 1996), pp. 591-614.
Spruyt, Hendrik. Historical Sociology and Systems Theory in International Relations, Review of International Political Economy (Vol. 5, No. 2, Summer 1998), pp. 340-353.
Trepavlov, V. V., The Agony of the ‘Yoke’: The Great Horde as a Fading Threat to Muscovite Rus. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Vol. 92, Suppl. May 2022), pp. S428-S433.

（三）網路資料

Vladimir Putin, Address by President of the Russian Federation
<http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603> (檢索日期：2026/06/10)

三、俄文：

（一） 專書

Ключевский, В. О. Сочинения: В 9 т. Т. 2. Курс русской истории. Ч. 2 (Москва: Мысль, 1988).
Насонов, Арсений Николаевич, Монголы и Русь: история татарской политики на Руси (Москва; Ленинград: Издательство Академии наук СССР, 1940).
Черепнин, Л. В. Образование Русского централизованного государства в XIV–XV веках (Москва: Соцэкгиз, 1960).

（二） 期刊論文

Маслова, Светлана Александровна, «Установление системы регулярного налогообложения русских земель в пользу Золотой Орды,» Российская история, Номер 1 (2024), сс. 3-18.