對一個典型的海島經濟而言，為圖經濟的進一步發展，拓展對外貿易似乎是一種最便捷的方法，工業革命後的英國就是一個最典型的例子，由於英國大肆拓展對外貿易，使英國成為一次大戰前的首號經濟強國，倫敦更是當時世界最大的金融中心，可謂是盛極一時；二次大戰後的日本更把此模型發揚光大，憑藉著對外貿易以帶動其經濟發展，而使日本成為當前世界的第二大經濟強國，日本軍閥雖無法以武力建立起其所謂的“東亞共榮圈”，但日本商人卻已確確實實的控制住整個東亞地區的經濟，此亦是拓展貿易所賜。我國目前亦是朝著此一目標努力當中，希望能藉著貿易成長，使我國的經濟更繁榮。

在貿易導向經濟策略的引導下，我國政府採取了各種有助我拓展外貿的措施，諸如依序輔導各輸出產業的設立，由紡織工業→塑膠工業→電子工業→鋼鐵、機械工業等，並積極的充實各項公共設施（水、電、鐵公路、港口等)，此外在稅賦及金融制度上亦無不以資助拓展對外貿易為前提。這二十年來，我們付出了努力，也收到許多成果，然而我們在出口供給方面的成就又如何呢？實是一件耐人尋味的事情。台灣經濟發展的初期，號稱以廉價勞力取勝，更以此為吸引外資的號召，到底我國的工資水準對出口價格的影響如何呢？又中間投入原料對出口價格會有什麼樣的影響呢？外國市場對我國出口品的需求情況又是如何呢？這些都是本文企圖探討的內容。然而由於作者本人學識粗淺，加以原始資料的限制，使本文的水準與作者的理想相去甚遠，唯有期待來日尚有機會再做進一步的修正。文中若有任何不妥之處，尚請諸位賢達多多指教。

在本文寫作期間，承蒙指導教授許嘉棟先生多方教誨，給作者很多新的啟示，於文稿草成之後，許老師更是不辭勞苦，三度批改，終始本文得以付梓，心中對恩師實有不盡的感激。所長周宜魁先生及口試委員許日和先生、林柏生先生對本文許多不妥之處，亦多所指導，使作者受益良多 ; 學長馮立功先生更是晝夜不分的為處理本文有關電腦計算部份而奔波，才使實證部份得以順利提出；此外，家人，尤其是內人黃碧月小姐，在本文寫作期間所給予的精神鼓勵與支持。謹在此向諸位師長及家人致意。

余 吉 政 謹識

一九八二年元月於木柵

參考書目

一、中文部份：

1.李庸三：「經濟計量方法」（民國62年9月）

2.許日和：「台灣進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性」，經濟論文，第一卷第一期，中研院經研所（民國62年2月）。

3.許日和：「台灣按商品類別進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性」，經濟論文，第三卷第一期，中研院經研所（民國64年3月）。

4.施鷹艷：「台灣輸出入商品彈性的測量（1961-1974）」，政大國貿所碩士論文（民國64年6月）。

二、英文部分

1. Artus, J. R., “The Short-Run Effects of Domestic Demand Pressure on Export Delivery Delays for Machinery,” Journal of International Economics, 3 (1973), pp. 21-36.

2. Artus, J. R., “The Short-Run Effects of Domestic Demand Pressure on British Export Performance,” IMF Staff Papers, 17 (1970), pp. 247-274.

3. Ball, R. J., “Credit Restriction and the supply of Exports,” The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 29 (1961), pp. 161-172.

4. Ball, R. J., J. R. Eaton, and M, D. Stever, “The Relationship between United Kingdom Export Performance in Manufactures and the Internal Pressure of Demand,” Economic Journal, 76 (1966), pp. 501-518.

5. Basevi, G., “Commodity Trade Equations in Project LINK,” in R. Ball (ed.) The International Linkage of National Economic Models (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1973), pp. 227-281.

6. Batchelor, R. A. and C. Bowe, “Forecasting UK International Trade: A General Equilibrium Approach,” Applied Economics, (1974), pp. 109-141.

7. Cheng, H. S., “Statistical Estimates of Elasticities and Propensities in International

Trade: A Survey of Published Studies,” IMF Staff Staff Papers, 7 (1959), pp. 107-158.

8. Donges, J. B. and J. R. Riedel, “The Expansion of Manufactured Exports in Developing Countries: An Empirical Assessment of Supply and Demand Issues,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Helt 1 (1977), pp. 17-85.

9. Goldstein, M. and M. S. Khan, “The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultameous Approach,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, (1978), pp. 275-286.

10. Hickman, B. G. and L. J. Lau,”Elasticites of Substitution and Export Demand in a World Trade Model,” European Economic Review, 4(1973), pp. 347-380.

11. Houthakker, H. S. and S. P. Magee, “Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 51 (1969), pp. 111-125.

12. Houthakker, H. S. and L. D. Taylor, Consumer Demand in the United States (Combridge: Harvard University Press, 2nd edition, 1970).

13. Ikema, M., “The Effect of Economic Growth on the Demand for Imports: A Simple Diagram, ” Oxford Economic Payers, 21 (1969), pp. 66-69.

14.Johnson, H. G., International Trade and Economic Growth (London : George Allen and Unwin Ltd., 1962).

15. Johnson, H. G., “Economic Expension and International Trade,” Ch, 3 of International Trade and Economic Growth, pp. 65-93.

(Combridge : Harvard University Press, 1958 .)

16. Johnston, J., Econometric Methods, (New York : McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1972.)

17. Junz, H. B. and R. R. Rhomberg, “Prices and Export Performance of Industrial Countries,

1953-63,” IMF Staff Papers. 12 (1965)pp. 224-271.

18. Junz, H. B. and R. R. Rhomberg, “Price Competitiveness in Export Trade Among Industrial

Countries,” American Economic Association, 63(1973), pp. 412-418.

19. Khan, M. S. and K. Z. Ross, “Cyclical and Secular Income Elasticities of the Demand for Imports,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 57 (1975) pp. 357-361.

20. Kreinin, E. M., “Price Elasticities in International Trade,” The Review of Economics and Statictics, 49 (1967) pp. 510-516.

21. Kreinin, E. M., “Disaggregated Imports Demand Function - Further Results,” Southern Economic Journal, 40 (1973), pp. 19-25.

22. Leamer, E. E. and R. M. Stern, Quantitative international Economics (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1970).

23. Liang, K. S. and C. H. Liang, “Incentive Policies for Import Substitution and Export Expansion in the Republic of China,” Industry of Free China, (1978), pp. 2-18.

24. Magee, S.P., “Prices, Income and Foreign Trade:A survey of Recent Economic Studies,” in P. B.Kenen (ed.), International Trade and Finance:Frontiers for Research (Combridge: Combridge

University Press, 1975), pp. 175-252.

25. Orcutt, G. H., “Measurement of Price Elasticities in International Trade ,“ The Review of Economics and Statistics, (1950) pp. 117-131.

26. Rhomberg, R. R., “Towards a GeneraI Trade Model, ” in R. J. Ball(ed.) , The International Linkage of National Economic Models (Amsterdam:North-Holland Publishing Company, 1973) pp. 9-20.

27. Rhomberg, R. R. and L. Boissonneault, “Effects of Income and Price Changes on the U. S. Balance of Payments,” IMF Staff Paper, 11 (1964) pp.59-122.

28. Taplin, G., “A Model of World Trade,” in R. J.Ball (ed.),The International Linkage of National Economics Models (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1973), pp. 177-223.