摘要
平均壽命因死亡率下降而延長以及主要死因轉變為中老年疾病或慢性病，尤其中老年疾病與慢性病必須長期治療且不易根治的特性，使得高齡化社會對於醫療保健的需求將逐漸上升。基於上述背景本文以全民健保資料庫重大傷病資料研究台灣地區在壽命延長以及死因轉變之下醫療需求以及疾病負荷，其中醫療需求研究是以保險精算的方式推估未來台灣地區醫療需求金額以及每人平均門診醫療費用成本；疾病負荷研究是以生命表的方式計算因疾病損失年數與健康餘命分別以死因除外的方式以及健康餘命佔平均餘命的比例分析死因轉變對於國民壽命與健康存活時間的影響。研究中發現醫療需求有以近似線性方式上升的可能，醫療費用成本也隨之逐漸上升，醫療費用的上升趨勢將形成商業醫療健康保險的挑戰；在壽命延長以及死因轉變之下因疾病損失年數有上升的趨勢，並且若中老年與慢性疾病發生率持續不變健康存活時間佔平均壽命的比例將逐漸下降。

Abstract
The health care demand becomes larger and larger in the aging society result from the improvement of mortality and the geriatric and chronic diseases become major dead causes now. Under this circumstance, we aim to evaluate the future health care demand and the burden of disease in Taiwan by using critical illness and injury data among National Health Insurance database. In this research, we evaluate the future health care demand amount and outpatient expenditure per capita in Taiwan in actuarial way and evaluate the burden of disease by calculating the year lost due to disease and health life expectancy. According to research result, we argue that the demand of health care is increasing in almost linear way and the increase of health care cost becomes the important challenge to commercial health insurance. In additional, the year lost due to disease is increasing and the proportion of health life expectancy to life expectancy is decreasing result from life becomes longer and longer and the change of major dead causes.

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