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研究生: 潘宜呈
Pan, I-Chen
論文名稱: 不確定性衝擊下的總體經濟效果: 勞動搜尋與金融摩擦之交互作用
Macroeconomic Effects Under Uncertainty Shocks: The Interaction Between Labor Search and Financial Frictions
指導教授: 賴廷緯
Ting-Wei, Lai
口試委員: 陳冠任
Chen, Kuan-Jen
蔡宜展
Tsai, Yi-Chan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 50
中文關鍵詞: 動態隨機一般均衡模型不確定性衝擊勞動搜尋摩擦金融摩擦
外文關鍵詞: DSGE Model, Uncertainty Shock, Labor Market Friction, Financial Friction
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  • 在本文中展示了金融摩擦與勞動市場摩擦之間的交互作用在不確定性衝擊的傳遞中扮演關重要的作用。通過將金融摩擦和勞動搜尋與媒合摩擦納入 Leduc and Liu(2016)建構的 DSGE 模型,對其進行延伸。Leduc and Liu(2016)主張雇用不可逆性所產生的等待價值管道,為重現總體經濟變數對不確定性衝擊負面反應的關鍵。而具體而言,從現有的實證結果顯示,由金融衝擊引發的衰退會導致更高的失業率和更顯著的生產率下降。
    本研究的基準模型有兩個關鍵特徵:(i) 廠商在生產前通過發行即期貸款來融資;(ii) 勞工的薪資通過與廠商的議價來確定。本研究的量化結果顯示,由勞動搜尋摩擦產生的等待價值管道與約束廠商決策的抵押限制管道間的交互作用,可放大消費、投資和產出的下降,從而在不確定性衝擊發生時加劇經濟衰退。


    In this paper, we demonstrate that the interaction between financial frictions and labor market frictions plays a crucial role in the transmission of uncertainty shocks. We extend the DSGE model developed by Leduc and Liu (2016) by incorporating both financial frictions and labor search-and-matching frictions. They propose the option-value channel, stemming from the irreversibility of employment status, to reproduce negative responses of key macroeconomic variables to uncertainty shocks. Specifically, as shown by existing empirical evidence, recessions triggered by financial shocks induce higher unemployment and more pronounced declines in productivity.

    Our baseline model has two key features: (i) firms finance expenditures by issuing intratemporal loans before production, and (ii) wages are determined via Nash bargaining between firms and workers. Our quantitative result suggests that the interaction between the option-value channel arising from labor search frictions, and the collateral constraint channel in binding firms’ decisions, can amplify declines in consumption, investment, and output, and thus exacerbate economic downturns when uncertainty shocks occur.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景與目的 1
    第二節 研究架構 4
    第二章 文獻回顧 5
    第一節 不確定性的測量 5
    第二節 不確定性的傳導機制 5
    第一小節 勞動搜尋摩擦 7
    第二小節 金融摩擦與抵押限制式 8
    第三章 模型設定 9
    第一節 勞動市場 9
    第二節 家計單位 11
    第三節 廠商 12
    第一小節 最終財廠商 13
    第二小節 零售廠商 14
    第三小節 中間財廠商 15
    第四節 薪資議價 19
    第一小節 廠商的價值函數 19
    第二小節 勞工的價值函數 20
    第三小節 納許議價薪資 20
    第五節 薪資僵固 22
    第六節 政府政策 22
    第七節 市場結清條件 23
    第八節 經濟體系外生水平衝擊 24
    第四章 模型分析 25
    第一節 參數校正 25
    第二節 參數估計 26
    第一小節 資料選取與處理 26
    第二小節 貝氏估計 29
    第三節 衝擊反應函數 30
    第一小節 加入「等待價值」機制的金融不確定性衝擊效果 31
    第二小節 金融不確定性衝擊的純粹效果 33
    第五章 模型穩健性分析 35
    第一節 不同模型因子與不確定性的交互作用效果 35
    第二節 金融不確定性衝擊下「等待價值」與「名目僵固性」的比較 38
    第六章 結論 40
    附錄 I 42
    附錄 II 43
    附錄 III 46
    參考文獻 47

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