承認台灣主權、和平統一、維持現狀、或相互交鋒: 評估習進平、川普、及蔡英文執政下台海關係之影響及未來趨勢

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研究生：	康明思 Königs, Tomas
論文名稱：	承認台灣主權、和平統一、維持現狀、或相互交鋒: 評估習進平、川普、及蔡英文執政下台海關係之影響及未來趨勢 Recognizing Taiwanese Sovereignty, Peaceful Unification, Continuing the Impasse, or Sparking the Flame of Conflict: Assessing the impact of policies under Xi Jinping, Donald Trump and Tsai Ing-wen on the future of cross-strait relations
指導教授：	袁易 I, Yuan
口試委員:	吳得源 Wu, Maxwell 徐斯勤 Hsu, S. Philip
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	社會科學學院 - 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) International Master's Program in Asia-Pacific Studies(IMAS)
論文出版年：	2018
畢業學年度：	106
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	184
中文關鍵詞：	兩岸關係、川普、習近平、蔡英文、中美關係、一個中國
外文關鍵詞：	Cross-strait relations, Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Tsai Ing-wen, Sino-American relations, One China
DOI URL：	http://doi.org/10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMAS.003.2018.A07
相關次數：	點閱：125 下載：16
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台灣、中華人民共和國和美國在影響連動兩岸關係方向上扮演者相當重要的角色，並對台灣的未來政策發展有極大影響。過去六年中，三國都經歷了重大的領導層變革: 習近平在2013年擔任中華人民共和國最高職位、並於2018年取消任期限制，走向一人專制之政。台灣在2016年則歷經執政黨汰換，傾向台獨之民進黨在蔡英文之帶領下，正式取代了相對親中之國民黨成為執政黨。相較於美國2017年之選舉，川普在缺乏共和黨支持下，由一介政治素人搖身成為美國最高領導人。正因迄今尚無全面分析這些發展如何影響兩岸關係的平衡，本研究調查習近平，蔡英文和川普就職後兩岸關係局勢之經濟、政治和軍事轉變，並評估了這些變化如何影響未來兩岸之情勢。為此，這項研究首先概述台灣、中華人民共和國和美國之間的三角關係。而後，提出了兩岸關係中三個可能的結果以及影響其未來發展之因素。之後本研究介紹了2013年以來兩岸關係發生的重大政治，經濟和軍事變化。本研究結論為，兩岸關係未來走向將由目前僵局轉向日益惡化。不論是中國對台灣的非武力打壓迫使台灣接受和平手統一、甚或是提高武裝軍備為未來統戰預備，對中國而言，面對台灣軍武能力之相對弱勢之情況下，武力統一台灣將是決心而非威脅、且和平統一將不是可能之選項。中國決不會同意在目前情況下以台灣主權為基礎的和平協議。

Taiwan, the PRC and the United States are three players whose combined actions affect the direction of cross-strait relations. Consequently, they have a significant impact on the future of Taiwan. Over the past six years, all three went through significant leadership changes. Xi Jinping assumed the PRC top post in 2013 and saw presidential term limits removed in 2018, paving the way for his life-long rule. Taiwan in 2016 saw a switch in government where the DPP, a party that officially strives for Taiwanese independence and headed by Tsai Ing-wen, replaced the KMT, which supports eventual unification. Donald Trump won the US presidential elections of 2017. He is a man without any political experience whatsoever and who lacks firm support from his own party establishment. No research to date has comprehensively analyzed how these developments affect the balance in cross-strait relations. As such, this research investigates what economic, political and military changes have taken place in cross-strait relations since the inaugurations of Xi Jinping, Tsai Ing-wen and Donald Trump and assesses how these changes impact the future outcome of cross-strait relations. In order to do so, the research first draws an overview of the triangular relation between Taiwan, the PRC and the United States. The chapter that follows lists the main three possible outcomes of cross-strait relations and the variables that influence their likelihood. The research continues by listing the major political, economic and military changes that have occurred in cross-strait relations since 2013. The conclusion shows that the most likely future direction of cross-strait relations is a worsening of the present impasse with the PRC increasing the use of non-violent restrictive measures on Taiwan in an effort to force it to accept unification via peaceful means or provide itself an improved position in a possible future battlefield. To the PRC, this option is an alternative to military action against Taiwan absent its ability to finish such an operation successfully. Peaceful unification is unlikely in the near future and that the PRC will never agree to a peace agreement based on Taiwanese sovereignty under the current circumstances.

Table of contents
1. Introduction 1
2. The triangular relations of Taiwan, the People’s Republic of China and the United States 5
2.1 The PRC’s Taiwan policy 5
2.1.1 Main principles behind the PRC’s Taiwan policy 5
2.1.2 Reasons behind the PRC’s Taiwan policy 7
2.1.3 The PRC’s strategy towards peaceful unification 10
2.1.4 Unification through non-peaceful means 18
2.1.5 Summary 21
2.2 The US cross-strait policy 22
2.2.1 Main pillars 22
2.2.2 Reasons behind US cross-strait policy 24
2.2.3 Summary 26
2.3 Taiwan’s cross-strait policy 26
2.3.1 Change from ‘Republic of China’ to ‘Taiwan’ 26
2.3.2 Democracy 27
2.3.3 National sovereignty 28
2.3.4 Objectives flowing from sovereignty 29
2.3.5 Dependence on the PRC 29
2.3.6 Summary 30
2.4 Conclusion 30
3. Potential future directions of cross-strait relations and variables affecting their likelihood 32
3.1 Peace based on Taiwanese sovereignty 33
3.1.1 International support 33
3.1.2 Taiwan’s internal situation 34
3.1.3 Summary 35
3.2 Peaceful unification based on One China 35
3.2.1 Trust 36
3.2.2 The PRC’s intimidation of the Taiwanese people 36
3.2.3 Indicators of Taiwanese support for unification 37
3.2.4 Summary 38
3.3 A deteriorating impasse and increased levels of non-violent hostility 39
3.3.1 Relevant variables 39
3.3.2 Summary 41
3.4 Cross-strait military conflict 41
3.4.1 Article 8 of the Anti-Secession Law 41
3.4.2 Additional variables proposed in cross-strait literature 42
3.4.3 Summary 44
3.5 Conclusion 45
4. Recent changes in cross-strait relations 46
4.1 Taiwan’s international relations 46
4.1.1 United States 46
4.1.2 Asia-Pacific 50
4.1.3 Europe 53
4.1.4 The international situation and Taiwan’s diplomatic allies 55
4.1.5 Summary 56
4.2 Sino-American relations 57
4.2.1 Taiwan and One China 57
4.2.2 Economic relations 58
4.2.3 International security 60
4.2.4 Other developments 62
4.2.5 Summary 63
4.3 Taiwan’s cross-strait policy under the Tsai administration 64
4.3.1 Main policy 64
4.3.2 Rhetorical response to PRC threats and offensive policies 67
4.3.3 Cross-strait measures 68
4.3.4 Domestic political support 70
4.3.5 Summary 71
4.4 Xi Jinping’s cross-strait policy 72
4.4.1 Main principles 72
4.4.2 Policy on interaction with Taiwanese government (1992 consensus) 76
4.4.3 Two-pronged-strategy: psychological and political warfare 77
4.4.4 Infiltrating Taiwan 85
4.4.5 Summary 86
4.5 Development of cross-strait communications 87
4.5.1 Intergovernmental communication 87
4.5.2 Lower government communications 88
4.5.3 Inter-party communications 89
4.5.4 Summary 90
4.6 Taiwanese attitude towards China 91
4.6.1 Political indicators 91
4.6.2 Identity 98
4.6.3 Civil society 99
4.6.4 Summary 101
4.7 The PRC’s internal situation 101
4.7.1 Domestic politics 101
4.7.2 Indicators of (in)stability 103
4.7.3 General activity in the international sphere 107
4.7.4 Summary 109
4.8 The economic elements of cross-strait relations 110
4.8.1 Taiwan’s economic performance 110
4.8.2 Measures impacting economic connectivity 113
4.8.3 The result of these measures (trade linkage) 113
4.8.4 Summary 114
4.9 The cross-strait military 115
4.9.1 ROC Defense Forces 115
4.9.2 People’s Liberation Army 118
4.9.3 Military balance and summary 124
5. Analysis 126
5.1 Peace on Taiwanese sovereignty 126
5.1.1 International support 126
5.1.2 Political unity 127
5.1.3 Economic independence 127
5.1.4 Cross-strait military balance 127
5.1.5 Lingo on future unification 128
5.1.6 Summary 128
5.2 Peaceful unification 128
5.2.1 Cross-strait interaction 129
5.2.2 PRC military restraint 129
5.2.3 Token revisions to the PRC’s Taiwan policy 129
5.2.4 Economic growth in Taiwan and the PRC 129
5.2.5 Perceived PRC threat over Taiwan 130
5.2.6 Political indicators 130
5.2.7 Summary 131
5.3 Deterioration of impasse and non-violent restrictive measures 131
5.3.1 Developments in cross-strait relations 132
5.3.2 Duration of impasse 132
5.3.3 Taiwan’s attitude towards China 132
5.3.4 Cross-strait economic balance 132
5.3.5 PRC activity in the international arena 133
5.3.6 PLA ability to attack Taiwan 133
5.3.7 Summary 133
5.4 Cross-strait war 133
5.4.1 Taiwanese independence 133
5.4.2 Exhausting the possibility of peaceful unification 134
5.4.3 Sino-US relations 134
5.4.4 Perceived likelihood of US intervention 134
5.4.5 Cross-strait military balance 135
5.4.6 PRC domestic instability 135
5.4.7 CCP ability to communicate on the risks of war 135
5.4.8 Indicators of impending military action 135
5.4.9 Summary 136
6. Conclusion 142
References 145
Academic sources 145
Non-academic references 149
Figures and tables 182

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Figures and tables

Figure 1
Illustration First Island Chain: ‘Possible Japanese Submarine Deployment Area’, Submarine Matters (February 20, 2015). Accessed April 26, 2018. From: http://gentleseas.blogspot.tw/2015/02/possible-japanese-submarine-deployment.html.

Figure 2
Roberts, Christopher. "The ‘new Southbound Policy’ (NSP): The Importance of Strengthening Relations amidst Beijing’s Rising Assertiveness." Lecture, National Chengchi University, Taipei, June 14, 2018.

Figure 3
ROC. Ministry of National Defense. National Defense Report 2017. December 2017. Accessed June 28, 2018. http://www.mnd.gov.tw/NewUpload/歷年國防報告書網頁專區/歷年國防報告書專區.files/國防報告書-106/國防報告書-106-英文版.pdf, 37 and Xi, Jinping. "Secure a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era." 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Beijing, October 18, 2017, 48.

Figure 4
ROC. Ministry of National Defense. National Defense Report 2017. December 2017. Accessed June 28, 2018. http://www.mnd.gov.tw/NewUpload/歷年國防報告書網頁專區/歷年國防報告書專區.files/國防報告書-106/國防報告書-106-英文版.pdf, 44

Table 1
Wu, Jaushieh Joseph. "Taiwan after the KMT: Interpreting the 2016 Election." 2016. TS, Center for Strategic and International Studies. January 19, 2016. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/20160119-Wu-at-CSISFINAL.pdf, 2.

Table 2
Wu, Jaushieh Joseph. "Taiwan after the KMT: Interpreting the 2016 Election." 2016. TS, Center for Strategic and International Studies. January 19, 2016. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/20160119-Wu-at-CSISFINAL.pdf, 2.

Table 3
"2014-103年直轄市長選舉," 中選會選舉資料庫網站, accessed June 28, 2018, http://db.cec.gov.tw/histMain.jsp?voteSel=20141101B1; "2010-99年直轄市長選舉," 中選會選舉資料庫網站, accessed June 28, 2018, http://db.cec.gov.tw/histMain.jsp?voteSel=20101101B1.

Table 4
"Party Preferences Trend Distribution in Taiwan (1992/06~2017/12)." Election Study Center, February 5, 2018. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/course/news.php?Sn=165.

Table 5
"Taiwan Independence vs. Unification with the Mainland Trend Distribution in Taiwan (1992/06~2017/12)." Election Study Center, February 5, 2018. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/course/news.php?Sn=167.

Table 6
Original work by the author.

Table 7
"Taiwanese / Chinese Identification Trend Distribution in Taiwan (1992/06~2017/12)." Election Study Center, April 16, 2018. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/course/news.php?Sn=166.

Table 8
"China’s Economic Growth Remains Robust Amid Strong Retail Sales." Bloomberg, April 17, 2018. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/china-economic-growth-remains-robust-amid-strong-retail-sales.

Table 9
"Gini Index: Inequality of Income Distribution in China from 2006 to 2016." Statista, 2018. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://www.statista.com/statistics/250400/inequality-of-income-distribution-in-china-based-on-the-gini-index/.

Table 10
"Taiwan GDP Annual Growth Rate." Trading Economics. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/gdp-growth-annual.

Table 11
Hsiao, Frank S.T. "How Bad Is Taiwan's Economy?" The Diplomat, July 22, 2016. Accessed June 28, 2018. https://thediplomat.com/2016/07/how-bad-is-taiwans-economy/.

Table 12
"TAIEX." Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation. Accessed June 28, 2018. http://www.twse.com.tw/en/.

Table 13
ROC National Development Council. "Taiwan Statistical Data Book 2017." August 2017. Accessed May 12, 2018. https://www.ndc.gov.tw/en/News_Content.aspx?n=607ED34345641980&sms=B8A915763E3684AC&s=1897C8025B0899A0 and "Taiwan Ministry of Finance Trade Statistics Database." Accessed June 28, 2018. http://web02.mof.gov.tw/njswww/webproxy.aspx?sys=100&funid=edefjsptgl.

Table 14
ROC. Ministry of National Defense. National Defense Report 2017. December 2017. Accessed June 28, 2018. http://www.mnd.gov.tw/NewUpload/歷年國防報告書網頁專區/歷年國防報告書專區.files/國防報告書-106/國防報告書-106-英文版.pdf, 135.

Table 15
ROC. Ministry of National Defense. National Defense Report 2017. December 2017. Accessed June 28, 2018. http://www.mnd.gov.tw/NewUpload/歷年國防報告書網頁專區/歷年國防報告書專區.files/國防報告書-106/國防報告書-106-英文版.pdf, 37.

Table 16
Roberts, Christopher. "The ‘new Southbound Policy’ (NSP): The Importance of Strengthening Relations amidst Beijing’s Rising Assertiveness." Lecture, National Chengchi University, Taipei, June 14, 2018.

Table 17
Original work by the author.

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