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研究生: 廖英秋
論文名稱: 外部不均衡時的調整與最適國際準備之研究
指導教授: 余德培
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系
Department of International Business
論文出版年: 1980
畢業學年度: 68
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 179
中文關鍵詞:
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  • 目前國際間處於高經濟相依度情況下,迫求國際收支均衡已成為各國主要經濟目標之一;可是國際收支不均衡卻為許多國家普遍存在的現象,為了解決這個嚴重的經濟問題,有關國際收支調整問題之探討,已為各國研究國際金融之主題,本文卽順此潮流需要,採究一國消除國際收支不均衡的政策工具選擇――採調整政策或動用國際準備資產,並闡明最適國際準備之政策含義;與乎現行滙率制度下之國際準備需求行為。
    本文自題目之訂定,觀念架構之形成,以及論文之撰寫,均蒙恩師余教授 德培悉心指導,詳解疑惑;而文稿草就之後,復蒙於百忙之中詳細審閱、順頁批註、逐字斧正,在此謹申最悃款的謝忱。
    在研究期間,周所長 宜魁,嚴格的督導、鼓勵,並時詢以研究所得及進度,使吾不敢稍怠;口試時,蒙政大財研所張教授 慶輝、中研院經研所許教授 嘉棟指正謬誤,並提供寶貴意見,使本文增色不少;此外,同窗的切磋及研究生第七宿舍諸位摯友給予的鼓勵、協助,均使本文得以順利完成,在此一併致謝。
    最後,感謝我敬愛的雙親二十餘年來茹苦含辛的養育與栽培。親恩浩大,永銘於心。


    第一章 緒論1
    (一)研究動機及目的1
    (二)研究方法2
    (三)本文結構3
    第二章 外部不均衡時之調整政策7
    第一節 前言7
    第二節 滙率調整政策10
    第三節 所得調整政策28
    第四節 總體模型下的調整政策34
    第三章 最適國際準備理論及其評介49
    第一節 前言49
    第二節 傳統的最適國際準備理論52
    (一)比率分析法52
    (二)廻歸分析法55
    第三節 隨機最適國際準備理論61
    (一)Heller的模型61
    (二)Koichi-Kazuo的模型68
    第四節 最適國際準備理論之評介78
    第四章 外部不均衡時之調整成本與最適國際準備水準89
    第一節 外部不均衡時之調整成本90
    (一)滙率變動的調整成本90
    (二)所得變動的調整成本91
    (三)總體模型下各政策的調整成本94
    第二節 調整成本與最適國際準備在台灣之試算98
    (一)台灣外部不均衡的調整成本98
    (二)台灣的最適國際準備水準107
    第三節 台灣的實際國際準備水準與最適國際準備水準之比較111
    第五章 現行滙率制度下之國際準備需求行為119
    第一節 現行滙率制度及其調節國際收支的功能119
    第二節 現行滙率制度下之國際準備需求行為123
    第三節 台灣實施機動滙率制度對國際準備需求的影響132
    第四節 結論140
    參考文獻145
    附錄159
    圖表目錄
    表3-1:比率分析法的主要研究成果54
    表3-2:廻歸分析法的主要研究成果56
    圖3-1:國際收支發生盈餘或短絀的或然率圖66
    表4-1:國民生產毛額與貨品及勞務輸入額100
    表4-2:對每一元國際收支不均衡透過轉換政策與支出政策的調整成本101
    表4-3:國民所得、總支出、資本流入及利率105
    表4-4:有關的彈性值106
    表4-5:台灣的最適國際準備水準109
    表4-6:台灣的實際準備額與最適國際準備比較113
    表4-7:台灣的國際準備變動來源114
    表5-1:不同類別國家之國際準備與進口的比率125
    表5-2:台灣的國際準備與進口的比率(年資料)135
    表5-3:台灣的國際準備與進口的比率(季資料)137
    表A-1:不同類別國家之國際準備166
    表A-2:不同類別國家之進口167

    一、中文部份:
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    或孫震主編,台灣對外貿易論文集,第十一章,第263〜78頁,聯經出版社,民國六四年五月。
    3.蔣碩傑:〞外滙資產猛增引起金融危機之對策〞,邱正雄主編,台灣貨幣與金融論文集,第二十一章,第437〜57頁,聯經出版社,民國六四年九月。
    4.陳昭南、許日和:〞台灣的貨幣需求〞,邱正雄主編,台灣貨幣與金融論文集,第十三章,第299〜304頁,聯經出版社,民國六四年九月。
    5.陳昭南:〞IS-LM分析與彈性、支用、貨幣三派貶值理論之綜合〞,經濟論文,第一卷第一期,第1.〜16.頁,中央研究院經濟研究所,民國六二年三月。
    6.許日和:〞台灣進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性〞,經濟論文,第一卷第一期,第167〜81頁,中央研究院經濟研究所,民國六二年三月。
    7.許日和:〞台灣按商品類別進出口貿易的所得彈性與價格彈性〞,經濟論文,第三卷第一期,第105〜20頁,中央研究院經濟研究所,民國六四年三月。
    8.許日和:〞調整成本與國際準備在台灣之實證研究〞,國立政治大學學報,第三十五期,第203〜14頁,國立政治大學,民國六六年五月。
    9.施鷹艷:台灣輸出入商品彈性測量(1961〜1974),國立政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文,民國六四年六月印。
    10.曾明煙:小型開放體系下收支調整政策與最適外滙準備之研究,國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文,民國六八年六月印。

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