| 研究生: |
黃深潭 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
台灣產業投資行爲的研究--Jorgenson理論在唐榮公司的應用 無 |
| 指導教授: | 陳正澄 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 1976 |
| 畢業學年度: | 65 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 86 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 無 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:129 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
最近二十年來,利用計量模型研究投資行為的理論甚多,其中以D. Jorgenson的新古典投資模型理論較為良好,它在美國的實證研究結果頗能解釋美國廠商的投資行為。
本文利用Jorgenson的投資理論研究唐榮公司的投資行為,視該公司的投資行為能否用Jorgenson的理論來解釋。Jorgenson的投資理論源於新古典投資理論,假定廠商以現值極大化( Present Value of the firm )為經營原則。廠商以現值極大代經營最後必獲得一資本勞務租用價格( Rental price of capital service)。由資本勞務價格與生產量兩者決定欲望資本存量(desired capital)。欲望資本存量的變動即為淨投資的成因。淨投資每每有遞延落後分配的情形發生,Jorgenson採用的遞延模型稱為合理遞延落後模型(Rational distributed Lag Model )再加上替代投資的設定以及稅收結構等,構成完整的投資行為模式。
本文取用的資料以季為單位,範圍取自民國五十五第一季至六十一年第四季唐榮公司的財務資料。利用Jorgenson的理論設定唐榮公司的季投資函數。
由第三章的實證研究的結果,得知Jorgenson的投資理論不大能解釋唐榮公司的投資行為。
第一章 緒論
第二章 理論模型
第一節 新古典投資理論的基礎
第二節 欲望資本存量的決定
第三節 遞延落後分配型態
第四節 替代投資
第五節 稅收結構對投資的影響
第三章 實證研究
第一節 唐榮公司的營運情況
第二節 資料說明
第三節 欲望資本存量的決定
第四節 投資函數
第五節 投資函數估計可能發生的謬誤
第四章 結論
1. ANDERSON, W. H. L., “Business Fixed Investment : A Marriage of Fact and Fancy,” in R. FERBER ed., Determinants of Investment Behavior, University- National Bureau Conference, Series No.18, New York: Columbia University Press for The National Bareau of Economic Research, 1967.
2. ARROW, K. Chenery, H. B., MinHas, B. S. and Solow, R. M., “Capital - Labor Substitution and Economic Efficiency,” RES, August 1961, 43(3), PP. 225.-50.
3. BELL, F. W., “ A Note on The Empirical Estimation of The CES Production Function with the Use of Capital Data,” RES, August 1965, 47(3), PP. 328-30.
4. BISCHOFF, C. W., “ Hypothesis Testing and The Demand f or Capital Goods,” RES, august 1969, 51(3), PP. 354-68.
5. BOURNEUF, A., “ Manufacturing Investment, Excess. Capacity and the Rate of Growth of Output, ” AER, SEPT. 1964, 54(5), PP. 607-25.
6. CHENERY, H. B., “Over - Capacity and The Acceleration Principle,” Econometrica, Jan. 1952, 20(1), PP. 1-28.
7. CLARK, J. M., “Business Acceleration and the Law of Demand : A Technical Factor in Economic Cycles, ” J. Polit. Econ, March 1917 25(1). PP. 217-35.
8. COEN, R. M., “Effects of Tax Policy on Investment Behavior : Comment,” AER, June 1969, 59(3), PP. 370-77.
9. DHRYMES, P. J., ” Some Extensions and Tests for the CES Class of Production Functions, “ RES, NOV. 1965, 47(4), PP. 357-66.
10. DHRYMES, P. J. AND Kurz, M. , ” Investment, Dividends, and External Finance Behavior of Firms, in R. FERBER, (ed.). Determinants of Investment Behavior, University - National
Bureau Conference, Series, No 18, New York.
11. DUESNBERRY, J. S., Business Cycles and Economic Growth, New York; McGraw - Hill, 1958.
12. ECKSTEIN, D., “Manufacturing Investment and Behavior Expectations; Extensions of de Leevw, Results,” Econometrica, April 1965, 3(2), PP. 420 - 24.
13. EISNER, R., ,” A Distributed la Investment Function,” Econometrica, Jan. 1960, 28(1), PP. 1 - 29.
14. EISNER, R., ,” Investment : Fact and Fancy,” AER, May 1962, PP. 190 - 203.
15. EISNER, R., “A Permanent Income Theory for Investment,” AER, June 1967, 57(3), PP. 363 - 90.
16. EISNER, R., “Tax Policy and Investment Behavior : Comment,” AER, June 1969, 59(3), PP. 378 - 87.
17. EISNER, R., “Tax Policy and Investment Behavior: Further Comment,” AER, Sept. 1970, 60(4), PP. 746-52.
18. EISNER AND NADIRI, M. I., “Investment Behavior and the Neo-Classical Theory,” RES, August 1968, 50(3), PP. 369 - 82.
19. EISNER, R. AND STROTZ, R. H., “Determinants of Business Investment,” in Columbia on Money and Credit, “Impacts of Monetary Policy, ” Prentice - Hall: Englewood Cliff,
N. J. 1963.
20. EVANS, M. K., “A study of Industry Investment Decisions,” RES, MAY 1967, 49(2), PP. 151 - 64.
21. FELDSTEIN, M. S. AND FOOT, D. K., “ The Other Half of Gross Investment : Replacement and Modernization Expenditure,” RES, Feb. 1971, 53(1), PP. 49-58.
22. GRILICHES, 2., “Distributed Lags, A Survey,” Econometrica, Jan. 1967, 35(1), PP. 16 -49.
23. HALL, R. E. AND JORGENSON, D. W., “Tax Policy ad Investment Behavior,” AER, June 1967, 57(3), PP. 391-414.
24. HALL, R. E. AND JORGENSON, D. W., “Tax Policy and Investment Behavior : Reply and Further Results,” AER, June 1969, 59(3), PP. 388 - 401.
25. HICKMAN, B., “Capacity, Capacity Utilization, and the Acceleration Principle,” in “Problems of Capital Formation,” Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 9, Princeton: Princeton
University press, 1957.
26. JORGENSON, D. W., HUNTER, J. AND NADIRI, M. I. “ A Comparison of Alternative Econometric Models of Corporate Investment Behavior,” Econonmetrica, March 1970, 38(2), PP.187-212.
27. JORGENSON, D. W., “The Predictive Performance of Econometric Models of Quarterly Investment Behavior,” Econometrica, March 1970, 38(2), PP. 213 - 24.
28. JORGENSON, D. W. AND ZVI GRILICHES, “Capital Theory Technical Progress and Capital. Structure,” AER, 1968, PP. 51. 3/8 61.
29. JORGENSON, D. W. AND SIEBERT, C. D., “A Comparison of Alternative Theories of Corporate Investment Behavior,” AER, Sept. 1968, 58(4), PP. 681 - 712.
30. JORGENSON, D. W., “Rational Distributed Lag Function,” Econometrica, Vol. 2, No.1, (Jan. 1966).
31. JORGENSON, D. W. AND SIEBERT, C. D., “Optimal Capital Accumulation and Corporate Investment Behavior,” J. Polit. Econ, NOV - DEC. 1968, 76(6), PP. 1123 - 51.
32. JORGENSON, D. W. AND STEPHENSON, J.A., “Anticipations and Investment Behavior in U.S. Manufacturing, 1941 - 60,“ Amer. Statist. Assoc, March 1969, 64(325), P.67-87.
33. JORGENSON, D. W., ”Investment Behavior in U.S. Manufacturing, 1947 - 60,” Econometrica, April 1967, 35(2), PP. 169 -220.
34. JORGENSON, D. W., “The Time Structure of Investment Behavior in U. S. Manufacturing, 1947 - 60,“ RES, Feb. 1967, 49(1), PP. 16 - 27.
35. LUGAS, R. E. JR, “Adjustment costs and the Theory of Supply,” J.polit. Econo, August 1967, 75(4), PP. 321 -34.
36. MARTINS. FELDSTEIN AND MICHAEL ROTHSCHILO, “Towards An Economic Theory of Replacement Investment,” Econometrica, May 1974, Vol.42, P . 393-423.
37. M. BONFENBRENER AND PAUL, A. DOUGLAS, “Cross - Section Studies in the Cobb - Douglas Function,” J. Polit. Econ, Vol.47, Dec. 1939, PP. 761 - 85.
38. MODIGLIANI, F. AND MILLER, M. H., “The cost of Capital, Corporation Finance, and The Theory of Investment, “AER, June 1958, PP. 261 - 91.
39. MODIGLIANI, F., “Some Estimate of the cost of Capital to the Electric Utility Industry, 1945 - 57,” AER, June 1966, 56(3), PP. 333 - 91.
40. ROBINSON, Economic Philosophy. 1939.
41. ROBERT, M. SOLOW, Capital Theory and the Rate of Return, 1965, Rand McNally & Company Press.
42. JOHN, P. GOULD. AND ROGER, WAUD, “The Neoclassical Model of Investment Behavior; Another views,” IER, Vol.14, NO.1, Feb. 1973.
此全文未授權公開