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研究生: 簡楙甡
Chien, Mao-Shen
論文名稱: 機構投資人特質與市場定價效率:基於盈餘訊號之實證研究
Institutional Investor Characteristics and Market Pricing Efficiency: An Empirical Study Based on Earnings Signal
指導教授: 林靖庭
口試委員: 羅秉政
丁秀儀
陳韋達
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 金融學系
Department of Money and Banking
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 115
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 63
中文關鍵詞: 機構投資人投資期限ESG 偏好定價效率資訊獨立性
外文關鍵詞: Institutional Investors, Investment Horizon, ESG Preferences, Pricing Efficiency, Information Independence
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  • 本研究檢驗投資期限與 ESG 偏好聚焦於同一群機構時,其持股集中度如何影響定價效率,並檢視其資訊內涵是否獨立於外部分析師資訊環境。過去文獻多將兩個維度分別探討,雙維度框架仍待補充,致使長線機構為何能促進定價效率之機制缺乏完整解釋。本研究以 2015 至 2024 年美國市場為樣本,以標準化未預期盈餘(SUE)與分析師盈餘預測修訂(REV)為市場訊號,結合 Fama-MacBeth 迴歸、以羅素 1000/2000 指數重組為工具變數之 2SLS 模型,與分析師覆蓋率子樣本檢定。實證結果顯示,長線社會責任型(Long_SR)機構於訊號發布後持股近乎不動,呈現投資組合慣性;短線傳統型(Short_NonSR)機構則於利多訊號後顯著減持,呈現獲利了結,構成兩者定價角色分歧之行為基礎。工具變數設計排除反向因果後,Long_SR 持股對次月定價效率仍具統計顯著之因果效應(t = 18.73),確立其與較低定價誤差之關聯並非選股偏誤所致。分析師覆蓋率子樣本檢定進一步顯示,Long_SR 之效應於高、低覆蓋率兩組中方向一致,且未發現其隨覆蓋率變動之證據,意指其資訊內涵跨資訊環境保持穩定。本研究修正傳統「資訊替代效應」之解讀,提出「資訊獨立性(Information Independence)」概念:長線 ESG 機構所替代者為投資決策對外部分析師資訊之依賴性,而非分析師工作本身,為 ESG 投資是否損害市場效率之政策辯論提供實證解答。


    We examine how the joint specification of investment horizon and ESG preference shapes institutional investors' role in pricing efficiency, and whether such role depends on the external analyst environment. Prior studies typically treat the two dimensions separately, leaving the joint specification underexplored. Using U.S. market data from 2015Q1 to 2024Q4 with standardized unexpected earnings (SUE) and earnings forecast revisions (REV) as signals, we apply Fama-MacBeth regressions, a 2SLS design exploiting Russell 1000/2000 index reconstitution, and analyst-coverage subsample tests. We find that long-horizon socially responsible (Long_SR) institutions exhibit portfolio inertia, keeping holdings nearly unchanged following SUE and REV signals, whereas short-horizon non-SR (Short_NonSR) institutions significantly reduce positions after positive signals, consistent with profit-taking — together establishing a behavioral foundation for the two groups' divergent pricing roles. After addressing reverse causality through the instrumental variable design, we show that Long_SR holdings exert a statistically significant causal effect on subsequent pricing efficiency (t = 18.73), confirming this is not merely a stock-selection artifact. The Long_SR effect is directionally consistent across high- and low-analyst-coverage subsamples, and we find no evidence that it varies with coverage, indicating that the informational content of Long_SR holdings remains stable across information environments and is not contingent on external analyst coverage. These findings refine the conventional Information Substitution Effect by introducing the concept of Information Independence: long-horizon ESG institutions substitute for investors' reliance on external analyst information rather than for analyst work itself, and inform the policy debate over whether ESG investing harms market efficiency.

    摘要 i
    Abstract ii
    目錄 iv
    表目錄 vi
    第一章 緒論 1
    第二章 文獻探討 6
    第一節 機構投資人之投資期限與交易行為 6
    第二節 ESG 偏好與資本市場資訊環境 7
    第三節 異常報酬現象與套利限制 8
    第四節 機構持股文獻中之內生性挑戰與因果識別 9
    第五節 假說推演 10
    第三章 研究方法與資料描述 13
    第一節 資料來源與樣本篩選 13
    第二節 變數定義 16
    第三節 實證模型設計 19
    第四章 實證分析結果 22
    第一節 敘述性統計與相關性分析 22
    第二節 行為機制分析:機構投資人之交易反應(假說一檢定) 25
    第三節 市場定價效率分析(假說二檢定) 30
    第四節 內生性檢定:工具變數與兩階段最小平方法 (2SLS) 35
    第五節 進階機制探討:分析師覆蓋率與資訊獨立性 38
    第六節 機構持股之質性特徵分析與資訊環境效應 41
    第五章 結論與建議 46
    第一節 研究結論 46
    第二節 實務意涵與貢獻 49
    第三節 研究限制與未來研究建議 50
    參考文獻 52
    附錄 56

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