在後疫情時代，人工智慧（AI）與數位轉型的快速發展提升了半導體產業的戰略重要性，同時也加劇地緣政治風險（GPR）對全球供應鏈與金融市場的影響。本研究採用固定效果追蹤資料模型，以超額報酬與已實現波動率為指標，分析半導體供應鏈七大環節及七個地區對地緣政治風險的反應。結果顯示，不同供應鏈節點存在顯著異質性：晶片設計、設備與材料產業在地緣政治緊張升溫時出現即時且持續的估值折價，而晶圓製造則因高進入門檻與低替代性展現較強韌性。區域分析發現，台灣與南韓面臨即時估值下跌，美國則呈現延遲反應；日本與中國估值相對穩定，但波動性明顯上升。研究結果有助於理解半導體產業的地緣政治暴露程度，並為企業、投資人及研究者提供決策參考。

In the post-pandemic era, the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and digital transformation has increased the strategic importance of semiconductors while intensifying the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on global supply chains and financial markets. This study employs fixed-effects panel regressions to examine the effects of GPR across seven semiconductor supply-chain nodes and seven geographic regions, using excess returns and realized volatility as key indicators. The results reveal significant heterogeneity across supply-chain segments. Chip Design, Equipment, and Materials experience immediate and persistent valuation discounting under heightened geopolitical tensions, whereas Wafer Fabrication demonstrates greater resilience due to high entry barriers and limited substitutability. While most segments exhibit volatility contraction following GPR shocks, temporal responses vary across nodes. Regional analysis further shows that Taiwan and South Korea face immediate valuation declines, whereas the United States exhibits delayed pricing effects. Japan and China maintain relatively stable valuations but experience increased volatility. These findings provide a framework for understanding geopolitical exposure within the semiconductor ecosystem and offer insights for researchers, firms, and investors navigating an increasingly uncertain global environment.

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