本研究旨在對各種對泰國歷屆政府軍事合作行為的變化的辯論做出貢獻。目前討論泰國軍事結盟行為的文獻，大部分都是在強調結構性解釋的不足之處，但本研究認為，結構性的解釋對於瞭解泰國軍事合作行為的變化與連續性仍然是一個具有解釋力的角度。本研究立基各種關於小國外交政策選擇的理論，以及Lim and Cooper所提出的結盟信號論點，建立一個了結構性的解釋模型模型，解釋冷戰後泰國歷任政府以軍事合作作為實際手段的結盟行為。本研究提出的模型由兩個變數組成：「軍事合作選擇國家的可得性」以及「中美競爭的激烈程度」。當中美競爭較不激烈且軍事合作選擇國家的可得性較高的時候，泰國採取了全方位外交的戰略路線（1992~2006、2008~2014）；當中美競爭較激烈且軍事合作選擇國家的可得性較低的時候，泰國採取了較為倚靠中國的戰略路線（2014~2019）；最後，當中美競爭較激烈且軍事合作選擇國家的可得性較高的時候，泰國採取了在中美之間較為平衡的戰略路線（2019~2022）。這些延續和改變都是單單從泰國國內的政治或是政體的變動所無法解釋的變化。經驗證據顯示，這個結構性解釋除了能夠解釋泰國國防預算的變化之外，也能夠解釋許多其他的外交政策行為。此外，本研究還提出軍事成本、技術轉移、軍備自主權等當前文獻所缺乏討論的結構性因素，更能進一步理解泰國武器貿易的現況。

This research aims to contribute to the current debate on Thailand’s alignment behavior and military cooperation. At present, most of the literature discussing Thailand’s military alliance behavior emphasizes the inadequacy of structural explanations; however, this study argued that structural explanations still hold credibility for understanding the changes and continuity of Thailand’s military cooperation behavior. By utilizing the theory of small states compiled from multiple authors and the alignment signal based on Lim and Cooper’s model, this research creates a structural model to explain Thailand’s alignment behavior through military cooperation in the post-Cold War period. The model proposed by this research consisted of two variables: the availability of choices in military cooperation and the intensity of systematic stimuli stimulated by U.S.-China competition. When the competition between China and the United States was less intense, and the availability of countries for military cooperation was high, Thailand adopted a strategic line of Omni-direction diplomacy (1992-2006, 2008-2014); When the availability was low, Thailand adopted a strategic route that relied more on China (2014-2019); finally, when the competition between China and the United States was fierce, and the availability of countries for military cooperation was high, Thailand adopted a strategy that seeks to strike tranquility in its relations with both great powers (2019-2022). These continuations and changes are all changes that cannot be explained solely by the changes in Thailand’s domestic politics or regime. Empirical evidence suggests that this structural explanation can explain many other foreign policy behaviors in addition to changes in Thailand’s defense budget. In addition, this study also proposes structural modifiers such as weapons price, technology transfer, and armament autonomy that are not discussed in the current literature, which can further understand the current situation of Thailand’s arms trade.

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