| 研究生: |
唐志偉 Tang, Chih-Wei |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
美國川普政府南海政策之研究:權力平衡理論 Study on the South China Sea Policy of the U.S. Trump Administration: The Balance of Power Theory |
| 指導教授: |
邱坤玄
Chiu, Kun-Shuan |
| 口試委員: |
朱新民
Chu, Shin-Min 張執中 Chang, Chih-Chung |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
國際事務學院 - 外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班 Master's Program in Strategic and International Affairs |
| 論文出版年: | 2021 |
| 畢業學年度: | 109 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 153 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 權力平衡 、川普政府 、南海政策 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Balance of power, Trump administration, South China Sea policy |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202101040 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:51 下載:8 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
美國川普政府2017年上任後在南海政策上,除了延續歐巴馬總統「重返亞洲」策略,亦強調「美國優先」的政策將亞洲戰略的主軸重新定義為「印太戰略」,並持續與東南亞國家協會國家保持密切合作關係,以對抗中共片面改變南海現況,本研究分析南海問題的背景與影響因素、美國對南海議題的戰略政策以及了解中共及相關國家的反應。本文藉由現實主義中權力平衡理論,說明國際體系間中共與美國隨著地緣政治的改變持續權力再平衡的過程與事實,美國提升在自由航行的頻率以及全方位對抗中共在南海的擴張。研究發現川普政府對南海議題安全與利益修正、21世紀美國政府南海政策演變、從「亞太戰略」到「印太戰略」、自由航行權與中共南海主權對抗;美國與中共南海競爭全面化、美國、中共及周邊國家競合、中共對美國南海議題政策回應、東協與中共的矛盾與摩擦、日、印、澳對南海議題政策態度。研究結果藉由南海國際仲裁結果、否定中共南海主權、川普政府美國優先政策、對中共採用單邊主義、美國強化印太戰略作為、持續維持全球霸權。最後,南海爭議是美中關係中一重要課題,也有南海終須一戰論述,就美國或中共而言,南海爭議中核心戰略利益,端視兩國重視程度而定,故兩國南海爭議未來是「衝突」或是「緩和」須看後續拜登政府上任後的南海政策發展。
We are regard to the South China Sea (SCS) policy after taking office in 2017, the Trump administration of the United States of America (USA) has not only continued President Obama’s “return to Asia” strategy but also emphasized that the “America First” policy redefines the main axis of the Asian strategy as the “Indo-Pacific strategy” and continues to Maintain close cooperative relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to counter the People's Republic of China (PRC) unilateral changes in the SCS. This study analyzes the background and influencing factors of the SCS issue, the USA’s strategic policy on the SCS issue, and understands the responsibility of the PRC and related countries. This article uses the realist theory of power balance to illustrate the process and facts of the PRC and the United States continuing to rebalance power in the international system with the changes in geopolitics. The USA has increased its freedom of navigation and comprehensively confronted the PRC’s expansion in the SCS. The study found that the Trump administration’s security and interest amendments to the SCS issues, the evolution of the USA government’s SCS policy in the 21st century, from the “Asia-Pacific Strategy”, to the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, the right of free navigation and the PRC’s SCS sovereignty confrontation; the U.S. and the PRC’s SCS competition is comprehensive, The USA, the PRC, and neighboring countries compete and cooperate, the PRC's policy response to the SCS issues of the USA, the conflicts and frictions between the ASEAN and the PRC, Japan, India, and Australia's policy attitudes to the SCS issues. The results of the research are based on the results of the SCS international arbitration, the denial of the PRC’s sovereignty in the SCS, the Trump administration’s USA priority policy, the adoption of unilateralism towards the PRC, the US strengthening of the Indo-Pacific strategy, and the continued maintenance of global hegemony. Finally, the SCS dispute is an important issue in the USA - PRC relations, and there is also the argument that “The USA and PRC finally have a war.” However, as far as the PRC or the USA is concerned, the core strategic interests of the SCS depend on the importance of the two countries. Therefore, the SCS of China and the USA The future of the dispute will continue to be “conflict” or “relaxation” depending on the subsequent development of the Biden administration after taking office.
目 次 I
表 次 III
圖 次 III
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 文獻檢閱 6
第三節 研究途徑與研究方法 14
第四節 研究範圍與研究限制 16
第二章 21世紀美國對南海問題的背景與影響 18
第一節 南海議題地緣政治 18
第二節 南海議題權力平衡理論之詮釋 22
第三節 歷史因素對南海議題的影響 27
第四節 否定中共主權及強化權力平衡與地緣政治 35
第三章 川普政府對南海議題安全與利益評析 37
第一節 21世紀美國政府南海政策演變 37
第二節 從「亞太戰略」到「印太戰略」的轉變 44
第三節 自由航行權與中共南海主權對抗 49
第四節 美國與中共南海競爭全面化 56
第五節 維持權力平衡優勢、對中共全方位遏制策略 60
第四章 美國與中共及周邊國家競合 61
第一節 中共對美國南海政策回應 61
第二節 東協與中共的矛盾與磨合 73
第三節 日、印、澳對南海議題政策態度 82
第四節 中共建立南海新秩序,美國強化印太戰略 99
第五章 結論 101
第一節 研究發現 101
第二節 研究展望 106
參考文獻 109
壹、中文文獻 109
貳、外文文獻 117
壹、中文文獻
一、書籍
(一)專書
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劉峰,南海開發與安全戰略(北京:學習出版社、海南出版社,2013年)。
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三、未出版之學位論文
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(二)資料庫資料及機構報告
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「外交部發言人趙立堅主持例行記者會」,中國外交部, <https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/t1797678.shtml>(2020年7月14日)。
「外交部發言人趙立堅主持例行記者會」,中國外交部, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/t1809844.shtml>(2020年8月27日)。
「南部戰區新聞發言人就美艦擅闖我西沙領海發表談話」,中國國防部,<http://www.mod.gov.cn/big5/topnews/2020-08/28/content_4870269.html>(2020年年8月28日)。
「海洋委員會海巡署,南部分署,東沙群島、地理位置」,行政院,<https://www.cga.gov.tw/GipOpen/wSite/ct?xItem=106488&ctNode=8291&mp=999>(2016年7月11日) 。
「海洋委員會海巡署,南部分署,南沙群島、地理位置」,行政院,<https://www.cga.gov.tw/GipOpen/wSite/ct?xItem=81498&ctNode=8140&mp=9991>(2016年5月13日) 。
「關於指導解決中國和越南海上問題基本原則協議」,中華人民共和國外交部,<https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gj_676203/yz_676205/1206_677292/1207_677304/t866484.shtml>(2011年10月12日)
「中華人民共和國外交部發言人華春瑩主持例行記者會」,中華人民共和國外交部,<https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/t1277205.shtml>(2015年6月30日)。
「經國務院授權三部委聯合發佈推動共建「一帶一路」的願景與行動」,中華人民共和國中央人民政府,<http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2015-03/28/content_2839723.htm>(2015年3月28日)。
「葉長城,「美國印太戰略的形成、發展及其對臺灣經貿之意涵」,中華經濟研究院WTO及RTA中心,<https://web.wtocenter.org.tw/Page.aspx?pid=328192&nid=68>(2019年8月15日) 。
「蕭琇安,「美國南海「航行自由」之成效」,政治大學國際關係研究中心,<http://inpr.org.tw/m/405-1728-1638,c113.php?Lang=zh-tw>(2019年)。
貳、外文文獻
一、書籍
(一)專書
Bateman, Sam and Emmers, Ralf, Security and International Politics in the South China Sea: Towards a Cooperative Management Regime, Routledge, 2009.
Claude, Jr, Inis L., Power and International Relations. New York: Random House, 1962.
Firth, Noel. E. and Noren, James. H., Soviet Defense Spending: A History of CIA Estimates, 1950–1990. College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 1998 .
Gilpin, Robert. War and Change in World Politics. New York: Cambridge, 1981.
Hara, K., Cold War Frontiers in the Asia-Pacific: Divided Territories in the San Francisco System. London and New York: Routledge, 2006.
Hermann, David G., The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996.
Huang, Jing. and Billo, Andrew., Territorial Dispute in the South China Sea: Navigating Rough Waters, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance, 2015.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance, 2015.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance, 2010; IISS, The Military Balance, 2015.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance, 2015.
J Taliaferro, effrey W., Ripsman, Norrin M., and Lobell, Steven E., The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World War, New York: Cambridge, 2012.
Jane’s Air-Launched Weapons, AGM-86 Air-Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) and CALCM, 2014.
Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft, Lockheed Martin (645) F-22 Raptor, 2013.
Jane’s Armour and Artillery, “NORINCO Type 98/Type 99 (ZTZ-98/ZTZ-99) MBT,” April 1, 2014.
Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems, “DF-21,” June 24, 2014.
Jane's Fighting Ships, Spreadsheet: World Naval Ship Fleets, 2015.
Kaplan, Morton. A., System and Process in International Politics. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1967.
Karotkin, Trends in China’s Naval Modernization, 2014.
Kenneth N., Waltz, Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co, 1979.
Kugler, Jacek and Lemke Douglas. Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledge, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996.
Mansbach, Richard. W., The Global Puzzle: Issues and Actors in World politics. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1994.
Mearsheimer, John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton, 2001.
Morgenthau, Hans J., Politics Among Nations; the Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Knopf, 1963.
Office of Naval Intelligence, The PLA Navy, 2015.
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Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2012, Washington, D.C., May 2012.
Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2013, May 2013.
Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2014, June 2014.
Padelford, N. J. and Lincoln, G. A., The Dynamics of International Politics, New York: The Macmillan Company, 1967.
Paul, T.V., Wirtz, James J. and Fortmann, Michel. Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2004.
Powell, Robert, In the Shadow of Power, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999.
Ralston, David B., The Army of the Republic, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1966.
Snyder, Jack, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991.
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Walt, Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.
Weitsman, Patricia A., Dangerous Alliances: Proponents of Peace, Weapons of War, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2004.
Wolfers, A., Discord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1962.
Yuzawa, Takeshi, Japan and the ASEAN Regional Forum, The Search for Multilateral Security in the Asia-Pacific 2007.
Zakaria, F., From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998.
二、期刊論文
Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2011, p. 15.
Buszynski, L., “The South China Sea: Oil, Maritime Claims, and U.S. -China Strategic Rivalry,” The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2012, pp. 139-156
Cartterjee, P., op.cit., p. 70.
Chan, S., “Exploring Puzzles in Power-Transition Theory: Implications for Sino-American Relations”, Security Studies, Vol. 13, No. 3 (Spring 2004), 105, pp. 118–119.
Chang, Felix K., “From Pivot to Defiance: American Policy Shift in the South China Sea,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, (August 24, 2020).
Chaturvedy, R. R., “South China Sea: India's Maritime Gateway to the Pacific,” Strategic Analysis, Vol. 39, No. 4 (2015), pp.360-377.
Chaturvedy, R. R., “South China Sea: India's Maritime Gateway to the Pacific,” Strategic Analysis, Vol. 39, No.4 (2015) pp.360-377.
Cheeppensook, K., “ASEAN in the South China Sea conflict, 2012–2018: A lesson in conflict transformation from normative power Europe,” International Economics and Economic Policy, Vol. 17 (2020) pp.747–764.
Cheeppensook, K., “ASEAN in the South China Sea conflict, 2012–2018: A lesson in conflict transformation from normative power Europe”, International Economics and Economic Policy (2020) 17, pp 747–764.
Chen, D., Pu, X., and Johnston, A. I., “Correspondence: Debating China’s Assertiveness”, International Security, Vol. 38, No. 3 (Winter 2013–2014), p. 177.
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Claude, Jr. Inis L., op.cit., pp. 13-14.
Claude, Jr. Inis L., op.cit., pp. 13-25.
Dahm, J. M., “Introduction to South China Sea Military Capability Studies,” Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, (July 2020), p. 17.
DiCicco, J. and Levy, J., “Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 6 (December 1999), p. 694.
DiCicco, J. and Levy, J., “Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 6 (December 1999), p. 694 & p. 20.
Dutton, P., “Three Dispute and Three Objectives,” Naval War College Review, Autumn 2011, p. 43.
Er, L. P., “Japan and the Spratlys Dispute: Aspirations and Limitations,” Asian Survey, Vol. 36, No. 10 (October, 1996), pp. 995-1010.
Friedberg, A., “The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?”, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 16-24.
Geaney, D., “China’s Island Fortifications Are a Challenge to International Norms,” Defense News, (April 17, 2020).
Gertz, B., “Rumsfeld Affirms Asian Presence,” The Washington Times. (July 25, 2001)
Goldstein, L. J., “China Could Announce a ‘Total Exclusion Zone’ at Any Time,” National Interest, (October 25, 2018).
Griffiths, J., “Beijing May Have Built Bases in the South China Sea, but that Doesn't Mean It Can Defend Them, Report Claims,” CNN, December 7, 2020.
Haas, Ernst B., “The Balance of Power: Prescription, Concept or Propaganda?” World Politics, Vol. 5, No. 4 (July 1953), pp. 442-477.
He, W. and Ramasamy, H., “Naming and Shaming China: America’s Strategy of Rhetorical Coercion in the South China Sea,” Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 42, No. 3 (2020) pp. 317–345.
Huang Jing and Jagtiani Sharinee, Introduction: Unknotting Tangled Lines in the South China Sea Dispute. Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea, 2015, pp. 1-12.
Huang, K., “Beijing’s South China Sea Military Bases Are Vulnerable to Attack and Will Be of Little Use in a War,” South China Morning Post, (December 6, 2020).
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Morgenthau, H. J., op.cit., p. 156.
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三、網路資料
“Act East to act Indo-Pacific: Agenda for the new government,” Economic Times, <https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/act-east-to-act-indo-pacific-agenda-for-the-new-government/articleshow/69591279.cms?from=mdr>(June 1, 2019).
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“US says China’s South China Sea missile launches threat to peace” Al Jazeera, <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/8/28/us-says-chinas-south-china-sea-missile-launches-threat-to-peace>(August 28, 2020).
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Associated Press, “US: Will Stand by Allies in Disputes with China,” Military.com, <https://www.courant.com/sdut-us-will-stand-by-allies-in-disputes-with-china-2014apr03-story.html> (April 3, 2014).
Axelrod, T., “US Restricting Travel of Individuals Over Beijing's Moves in South China Sea,” The Hill, <https://thehill.com/policy/international/china/513715-us-restricting-travel-of-individuals-over-beijings-moves-in-south> (August 26, 2020).
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四、資料庫資料及機構報告
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Chaudhury, A. B., & Saha, P., Looking Back, “Looking Ahead: Foreign Policy in Transition under Modi,” Observer Research Foundation, <https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/ORF_SpecialReport_93_ForeignPolicy-Modi_NEW25July.pdf>(July, 2019).
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Shanmugam K., “Minister for Foreign Affairs K Shanmugam’s Reply to Parliamentary Questions and Supplementary Questions (Speech).” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore, <https://www.mfa.gov.sg/content/mfa/overseasmission/asean/press_statements_ speeches/2012/201208/press_20120813.html>(August 13, 2012).
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