| 研究生: |
鄭華清 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
負債比率及股利政策資訊內涵之研究 |
| 指導教授: |
劉維琪
陳隆麒 Jiang, Yong-Min |
| 學位類別: |
博士
Doctor |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 企業管理學系 Department of Business Administration |
| 畢業學年度: | 82 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 177 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:105 下載:0 |
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本研究主要目的有三個;一是從理論上探討負債及股利的訊號放射;二是修正Ravid & Sarig (1991)的模式,加入代理成本的探討;三是以國內上市公司為樣本,驗證Ravid & Sarig(1991)修正後的模式,瞭解負債及股利當成訊號放射的意義。
根據模式推導及四個命題發展,本研究從三個方向著手進行實證。一是現金流量的觀點,二是稅負的觀點,三是代理成本的觀點。共計發展了十五項假說。
研究對象以台灣證券交易所上市公司,從民國77年到民國80年皆存在的上市公司為樣本,共計4年,123家上市公司。並取其公開資料為來源。
實證結果發現,資訊品質較佳的公司,由於現金流量較充足,負債償還會較多,所以同時負債比率會較低。但資訊品質較佳的公司,股利支付率並沒有明顯的增加,反而是現金流量比率變動愈大,股利支付率的變動會愈大。但在去除三個股利支付率極端值後,資訊品質較佳的公司,股利支付率顯著的增加。
不管有無股利支付,負債都是一個訊號。也由於市場存在資訊不對稱,所以用股利支付,可以作為另一個訊號,提供更多的訊息。由樣本公司的分析中得知,有股利支付的公司,現金流量比率比較多,沒有股利支付的公司,現金流量比率比較少。且有股利支付的公司,負債比率相對較無股利支付公司為低。股利支付的決策似乎要考慮的因素較多。
公司所得稅稅率增加,稅負利益增加,現金流量也會增加,可以有較多的償付負債的能力,所以負債比率會較低。但公司所得 稅稅率的變動,並不能支持股利支付率也會增加。且由於公司所得稅稅率和負債比率,股利支付率的解釋能力都很低。因此,在實務決策上可能並不是主要的決策依據。再者,不管有無去除三個股利支付率極端值,研究結果並無改變。
其次,負債比率和公司特性的關係,大抵都獲得支持。獲利能力愈好,負債比率就愈低。內部人士所有權比率愈集中,負債比率就愈低。公司規模愈大,負債比率就愈高。成長機會愈大,事業風險的變動,並沒有明顯的與負債有線性相關。股利支付率和各公司特性都沒有明顯的相關。一方面可以看出股利決策的複雜程度,一方面可能也受到其他因素的影響。但在去除三個股利支付率極端值後,股利支付率和獲利能力的關係獲得支持,表示獲利能力增加,股利支付率就會增加。
整體看來,修正後的Ravid & Sarig模式,基本上是獲得支持的。舉債和股利政策,會使股東期未財富受到稅負利益,破產成本或財務危機成本,及代理成本的抵換影響,因此,舉債和股利政策可以當成訊號,來傳遞公司未來的投資機會或盈餘預期。透過負債比率及股利支付率的訊號,外部人士可以用來推測公司的可支配現金流量及財務決策。因此,負債和股利政策的財務組合,具有訊號放射的價值,可以傳遞公司資訊品質。
圖表目錄
緒論..........1
研究動機與目的..........1
研究範圍..........5
研究限制..........8
論文架構..........9
註釋..........12
文獻探討..........13
負債及股利訊號放射觀點的探討..........14
負債及股利代理觀點的探討..........21
稅及財務危機的探討..........25
負債及股利相關的實證研究..........28
公司品質特性的探討..........35
註釋..........42
模式建立..........44
模式假設前提及符號說明..........46
資訊對稱下的模式推導..........48
資訊不對稱下財務承諾的訊號均衡..........51
命題建立..........53
註釋..........58
研究設計..........60
觀念性架構說明..........64
研究假說..........66
研究變數操作性定義..........71
資料來源,研究期間及樣本..........78
實證步驟及分析方法..........81
註釋..........83
第伍章 實證結分析..........88
第一節 樣本資料說明..........89
第二節 現金流量及稅負觀點的實證結果分析..........101
第三節 公司品質特性實證結果分析..........125
註釋..........132
結論與建議..........137
結論..........137
建議..........141
附錄一:個案說明..........144
個案一:南僑化工股份有限公司..........144
個案二:尚德實業股份有限公司..........148
個案三:大成長城企業股份有限公司..........151
附錄二..........155
參考書目..........156
中文部分..........156
英文部分..........158
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