在數位轉型與全球產業精細分工的浪潮下，供應鏈關係已成為企業維繫核心競爭力的關鍵戰略資產。然而，高度互賴的供應鏈結構亦伴隨著巨大的集中風險。本研究旨在探討現代供應鏈在面臨兩種截然不同的風險時，即供應商資安事件與代表外部的宏觀系統性衝擊的COVID-19 疫情，其主要客戶關係終止可能性的變化，並進一步檢驗供應商之專屬性投資在其中扮演的調節角色。
本研究以 2004 年至 2024 年美國上市企業為樣本，整合 Compustat、Historical Segment Customers 供應鏈資料庫與 Audit Analytics 資安資料庫，最終取得 12,513 個供應商與年度觀測值。實證結果顯示，在全樣本分析中，資安事件與疫情衝擊對供應鏈關係的直接斷鏈效果並不顯著，說明客戶並不會盲目採取全面停損策略。然而，經由研發密度分組測試與雙重差分法分析後發現：對於低研發密度的供應商而言，資安事件會釋放治理風險訊號，顯著提高主要客戶終止合作的機率。相對地，高研發密度的供應商因具備高度的技術不可替代性與轉換成本，不僅在發生資安事件時能緩解客戶的斷鏈傾向，在面臨 COVID-19 疫情的外部衝擊時，更促使客戶為了確保關鍵技術供應而強化合作，呈現出顯著的鎖定效應與契約韌性。
本研究之貢獻在於將供應鏈風險的研究由傳統財務指標延伸至非財務治理事件資訊安全，並證實了技術研發投入不僅是企業獲利的驅動力，更是抵禦內部治理危機與外部極端環境變動的壁壘。研究結果可提供管理階層與投資人在評估供應鏈韌性與長期合作價值時的重要戰略參考。

Amidst the wave of digital transformation and the intricate division of global industries, supply chain relationships have emerged as a critical strategic asset for enterprises to sustain their core competitiveness. However, highly interdependent supply chain structures are also accompanied by substantial concentration risks. This study investigates the impact of two distinct risks—supplier cybersecurity breaches (representing internal governance risk) and the COVID-19 pandemic (representing an external macroeconomic systemic shock)—on the probability of major customer relationship termination. Furthermore, it examines the moderating role of a supplier's relationship-specific investments in this dynamic.
Utilizing a sample of U.S. publicly listed firms from 2004 to 2024, this study integrates data from Compustat, the Historical Segment Customers database, and the Audit Analytics cybersecurity database, yielding a final sample of 12,513 supplieryear observations. Empirical results indicate that in the full-sample analysis, the direct termination effects of cybersecurity breaches and the pandemic shock on supply chain relationships are not statistically significant, suggesting that major customers do not blindly adopt a blanket stop-loss strategy. However, subsample analyses based on R&D expenditure and a difference-in-differences (DID) approach reveal significant heterogeneity: for suppliers with low R&D intensity, a cybersecurity breach sends a strong signal of governance risk, significantly increasing the probability of relationship termination by major customers. In contrast, suppliers with high R&D intensity possess high technological irreplaceability and impose significant switching costs. Consequently, they not only mitigate the customer's propensity to terminate the relationship following a cybersecurity breach but also prompt customers to strengthen cooperation during the extreme external shock of the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure the supply of critical technologies. This demonstrates a significant lock-in effect and contractual resilience.
This study contributes to the literature by extending the scope of supply chain risk research from traditional financial metrics to non-financial governance events (information security). It confirms that technological R&D investment is not merely a driver of corporate profitability, but also the most robust defensive moat against internal governance crises and extreme macro-environmental shocks. The findings provide vital strategic insights for management and investors in evaluating supply chain resilience and the value of long-term collaborative partnerships.

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