| 研究生: |
黃寶慧 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
物價膨脹對政府預算之影響:台灣地區之實證分析 |
| 指導教授: | 黃世鑫 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 財政學系 Department of Public Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 1991 |
| 畢業學年度: | 79 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 152 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:184 下載:0 |
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第一章 緒論………………… 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 ………………… 1
第二節 研究方法與本文架構………………… 2
第二章 物價膨脹對政府預算的影響………………… 4
第一節 物價膨脹時稅收稽徵落後對實質收入的影響 ………………… 5
第二節 歲出、歲入對物價膨脹的反應 ………………… 11
第三節 因應物價膨脹的租稅政策 ………………… 20
第三章 文獻回顧與模型建立 ………………… 26
第一節 文獻回顧 ………………… 26
第二節 物價變動方程式的建立………………… 43
第三節 我國物價膨脹對政府預算影響的模型建立 ………………… 53
第四章 實證結果分析 ………………… 72
第一節 平均每人政府收支對物價膨脹的反應………………… 73
第二節 平均每人分類支出對物價膨脹的反應 ………………… 80
第三節 分類收入對物價膨脹的反應………………… 104
第五章 結論 ………………… 140
參考文獻 ………………… 144
一、中文部分:
1.何宇明,台灣地區公共支出成長原因之研究,台北:國立政治大學財政研究所論文,民國七十一年六月。
2.李庸三,「台灣物價變動與價格預期」,收編於當前台灣物價問題研討會(台北:中央研究院經濟研究所,民國六十二年)頁93-113。
3.林華德,「台灣賦稅收入的預測」,台大經濟論文叢刊,民國六十七年十一月,頁41-90。
4.───,「台灣賦稅的月收入試析」,財稅研究,第十二卷第五期,民國六十九年九月,頁16-35 。
5.孫克難,台灣地區政府支出結構與成長研究,台北:中華經濟研究院,民國七十二年。
6.───,「國民所得與政府支出問因果關係之測定」,企銀季刊,第九卷,民國七十四年。
7.徐偉初,「華格納法則及貝克假設之實驗按定:台灣地區公共支出水準成長趨勢研究」,國立政治大學學報,第五十期,民國七十三年。
8.───,「我國公共支出國際比較指數之研究」,國立政治大學學報,第五十二期,頁59-74。
9.───,「我國國民所得與公共支出,因果關係之實證檢定」,國立政治大學學報,第五十四期,民國七十五年。
10.───,我國財政收支模型之估計,中央研究院經濟研究所所舉辦之台灣經濟計量模型研討會的論文,民國七十八年十二月。
11.───,黃細清,現階段公共支出水準與結構之研究,賦改會專題報告十二,民國七十八年六月。
12.───,彭煥勛,現行賦稅制度之評估,賦改會專題報告八,民國七十八年六月。
13.高翠蓮,輸入性通貨膨脹之研究,台北:國立台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文,民國六十四年。
14.陳聽安,「我國未來十年公共支出之發展趨勢」,中國論壇,第二四七期,頁53-64。
15.陳昭南,「開放程度遞增國家的物價變動試析」,自由中國之工業,第四十二卷(台北:行政院經濟設計委員會,民國六十四年) ,頁6-10,收編於邱正雄,台灣貨幣與金融論文集(台北:聯經出版事業公司,民國六十四年)
16.───,陳忠寬,「開放經濟體系下的貨幣數量說:台灣的貨幣與物價」,經濟論文叢刊,民國七十八年,頁189-195。
17.黃世鑫,民主政治與國家預算,國家政策研究資料中心,民國七十九年五月。
18.黃瑞松,張哲深,我國公共預算制度,中國經濟學會公共投資政策研討論文集,民國七十五年,頁127-159。
19. 曾廣田,台灣公共支出之分析,台北:財政部財政人員訓練所,民國六十三年。
20. 楊春霞譯,「開放中脆弱之財政平衡」,二十一世紀賦稅政策,(台北:財政部稅制委員會),民國七十八年六月,頁82-85。
21. 鄭文輝,朱澤民,余漢儀,簡立忠,我國社會福利支出之研究,行政院研考會,民國七十八年十一月。
22. 蔣碩傑,「低度開發國家的通貨膨脹理論」,天下雜誌,民國七十三年六月,頁151-167。
23. 蔡宗榮,「公共支出融通方式之選擇及其影響」,財稅研究,民國七十九年七月,頁40-48。
二、英文部分:
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3.Aghevli , Bijan B. , "The Balance of Payments and Money Supply under the Gold Standard Regime: G. S. ; 1879-1914" , American Economic Review , Vol.65 , March 1975 , pp.40-58.
4. --, ”Inflationary Finance and the Dynamics of Inflation: Indonesia 1951 一72", American Economic Review) Vo l .67 June 1977, pp .390-403.
5. --, "Inflationary Finance and Economic Growth", Journal of Political Economy , Vol.85 , December 1977 , pp.1295-1370.
6. --, and Mohsin S. Khan , "Credit Policy and the Balance of Payments in Developing Countries" (unpublished , International Monetary Fund , December 27 , 1976).
7. -- and --, "Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries " International Monetary Fund Staff papers , Vol.25 , September 1978 , pp.383-416.
8. Ballard , C. L; J. B. Shoven and J. Whalley, “General Equilibrium Computations of the Marginal Welfare Costs of Taxes in the United States" , The American Economic Review , Vo 1 .75 , NO. 1, 1985 , pp.128-138.
9. Barro, R.j., "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States", American Economic Review , March 1977 , pp. 101-115.
10. --, "Unanticipated Money , Output and the Price Level in the United states" Journal of Political Economy , August 1978 , pp.549-580.
11. Batten , D. S. and Hales , R. W., "The Relative Impact of monetary and Fiscal Actions on Economic Activity: A Cross-Country Comparison" , Federal Reserve Bank of st.Louis, Review, January 1983 , pp.5 一12.
12.Beck ,M. , "The Expanding Public Sector: Some Contrary Evidence" , National Tax Journal , march 1976 , pp.15-21.
13. ---, "Public Sector Growth: A Real Perspective", Public Finance, 1979, PP.313-355.
14. --,” Government Spending: Trends and Issues New York: Praeger , 1981.
15. --," Toward a Theory of Public Sector Growth" ,Public Finance / Finances Pulbiques , Vol .XXXVII ,NO.2 , 1982 , pp.163-177.
16. Bird ,R. M. , "Wagner's Law of Expanding State Activity" Public Finance , 1971 , pp.1-26.
17. Cameron , D. R. , "The Expansion of Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis" ,American Political Science Review 72 , pp.1243-126 1.
18. Chelliah, Raja J., "Trends in Taxation in Developing Countries", Staff Papers , Vol.18 , July 1971 , pp.254-331
19. Conte ,M.A. , and A.F.Darrat , "Economic Growth and the Expanding Public Sector: A Recxamination" , Review of Economics and Statstics , LXX ,1988 ,PP.322-330.
20. Corrigan , E. G. , "The Measurement and Importance of Fiscal Policy Changes ", Federal Reserve Bank of Kew York Review p52 , June 1970.
21. Dwyer , G. P. , "Inflation and Government Deficits" , Economic Inquiry ,20 ,July 1982 , pp.315-329.
22. Farley , J., M. Hinich , and T. Mcguire "Some Comparison of Tests for a Shift in the Slopes of a Multivariate Linear Time Series Model”, Journal of Econometries , 3, 1975 , pp.279-318.
23. Forte F. , and A. Peacock ,Public Expenditures and Government Growth, New York: Basil Blackwell Inc. , 1985.
24. Frenkel . Jacob A., "The Forward Exchange Rate, Expectations , and the Demand for Money: The German Hyperinflation" , American Economic Review , Vol.67 , September 1977 , pp.653-670.
25. Heller , Peter S. , "Impact of Inflation on Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries" , International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol.27 , No.4 , December , 1980 , pp.712- 748.
26. --, "A Model of Fiscal Behavior in Developing Countries: Aid , Investment , and Taxation ", American Economic Review , Vo 1 .65 June. 1975, pp. 429-445.
27. --,” Diverging Trends in the Shares of Nominal and Real Government Expenditure in Gap: Implications f or policy , International J10netary Fund ,June , 1980.
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29. --, “Deficits, money and inflation: Reply ", Journal of Monetary Economics 10 , 1982 , pp.279-283.
30. Jacobs, Rodney L., "Hyperinflation and the supply of Money", Journal of Money, Credit and bank, Vol.9 , J1ay 1977 , pp.287-303 .
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32.Krueger , Ann O."The Role of Horne Goods and Money in Exchange Rate Adjustment" , in W. Selleckerts ed. International Trade and Finance , New York: Macmillan , 1975.
33.Lybeck J. A. , The Growth of Government in Developed Economies , England: Gower Publishing Company Ltb. ,1986.
34. -- and M. Henrekson , Explaining the growth of Government , New York: North-Holland. , 1988.
35 . Mundell, Robert A., “Barter Theory and Monetary Mechanism of adjustments" , in International Economics , New York: Macmillan ,1968.
36.K?skanen , W. A. , "Deficits ,Government Spending and Inflation: What Is The Evidence?" , Journal of Monetary Economics 4, 1978 , pp.591-602.
37.Olivera ,Julio H.G. , "Money ,Prices and Fiscal Lags: A Note on the Dynamics of Inflation" ,Banca Nazionale del Lavoro ,Quarterly Review , Vol.20 ,September 1967 , pp.258-267.
38Peacock ,A.T .and J .Wiseman , The Growth of Public Expenditure In the United Kingdom ,Princeton ,Princeton Univerity Press , 1961.
39.Pluta , J. E. , "Real Public Sector Growth and Decline in Developing Countries" ,Public finance ! Finances Publiques , Vol.XXXVI,NO.3,1981. pp.439-454.
40 .Pluta E. Joseph , "Wagner's Law ,Public Sector Patterns ,And Growth
of Public Enterprises In Taiwan" , Public Finance Quarterly Vol.7 , NO.1 , January 1979 , pp.25-46.
41.Prernchand A. , Government Budgeting and Expenditure Controls Theory and Practice , International Monetary Fund Washington , D. C. ,1983 , pp.231-257.
42.Rarn. R. ,“Causality Between Income and Government Expenditure: a broad International Perspective ", Public Finance / Finances Publiques ,Vol.41 ,NO.3 ,1986 , pp.393-414 .
43. --"Government Size and Economic Growth: a New Framework and some Evidence From Cross Section and Time Series Data" , American Economics Review , Vol.79 , 1986. pp.191-203.
44. --"Wagner's Hypothesis in Time-series and Cross-Section Perspectives: Evidence From "Real" Data for 115 Countries" , Review of Economics andstatistics ,Vol .69 ,1987 , pp.194-204.
45.Rao. V. V. Bhanoji , "Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth: a Re-examination" , American Economic Review , Vol.79 , 1989 , pp.272-280 .
46 .Sahni , Balbir S. , and Balvir Singh , "On the Causal Direction Between National Income and Government Expenditure in Canada" , Public Finance/ Finaces Publiques , Vol.39. NO.3 , 1989 , pp . 359-393.
47.Siegel , Jeremy J. “Inflation-Induced Distortions in Government and Private Savings statistics , " Review of Economics and statistics , February 1979 , pp.83-90.
48.Tanzi Vito (l 977)"Inflation , Lags in Collection , and the Real VaIue of Tax Revenue ," International Monetary Fund staff Papers , Vol.24 , march , 1977 , pp.154-167.
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