近年來，地緣政治風險逐漸成為影響金融市場與銀行經營環境的重要因素。然而，針對本國銀行業之實證分析仍相對有限。因此，本研究以2010年至2024年間臺灣27家本國銀行為研究對象，結合銀行財務資料與 Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) 所建構之臺灣地緣政治風險指數，透過面板資料固定效果模型，檢驗地緣政治風險對銀行經營績效之影響，並進一步分析銀行收入結構之調節效果。
實證結果指出，地緣政治風險對本國銀行資產報酬率(ROA)與淨值報酬率(ROE)均具有顯著負向影響，顯示外部地緣政治不確定性將削弱銀行獲利能力，且對ROE之影響程度較為顯著。此外，銀行收入結構對地緣政治風險與銀行績效間之關係具有部分調節效果，當銀行非利息收入占比較高時，地緣政治風險對ROA之負向影響將進一步擴大。此一結果可能與非利息收入較依賴金融市場活動有關，當地緣政治風險升高時，市場波動加劇，將影響投資收益及相關手續費收入，使銀行獲利能力承受壓力。本研究結果可作為金融監理機關與銀行業者於風險管理與經營策略制定之參考。

In recent years, geopolitical risk has increasingly emerged as a critical factor influencing financial markets and the banking environment. However, empirical evidence focusing specifically on the domestic banking industry remains relatively limited. To address this gap, this study examines a sample of 27 Taiwanese domestic banks from 2010 to 2024. By integrating bank-level financial data with the Taiwan Geopolitical Risk Index developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), this paper employs a panel data fixed effects model to investigate the impact of geopolitical risk on bank operating performance and further analyzes the moderating effect of bank income structure.
The empirical results indicate that geopolitical risk exerts a statistically significant negative impact on both the Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) of domestic banks, demonstrating that external geopolitical uncertainties impair bank profitability, with a more pronounced effect observed on ROE. Furthermore, bank income structure exhibits a partial moderating effect on the relationship between geopolitical risk and bank performance. Specifically, when the proportion of non-interest income is higher, the negative impact of geopolitical risk on ROA is further amplified. This finding may be attributed to the fact that non-interest income streams rely heavily on financial market activities. As geopolitical risks rise, intensified market volatility adversely affects investment returns and fee-based income, thereby putting pressure on bank profitability. The findings of this study can provide insights for regulatory authorities and banking institutions in strategic formulation.

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