本研究使用台灣某壽險公司1982年至2018年間生死合險保單資料，以Lee-Carter（LC）模型與Age-Period-Cohort（APC）模型建立保單解約率模型。實證結果顯示，APC模型考量了世代效果，較基本的LC模型對解約率的配適能力較佳。本研究結果顯示保單解約率受到保單年度、年份以及世代效果的影響，提供保險公司在保單解約率管理方面之參考依據。

In this study, we utilizes endowment insurance policy data from a Taiwanese life insurance company spanning from 1982 to 2018 to model dynamic surrender rate of life insurance policy under Lee-Carter (LC) model and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model. The empirical results indicate that the APC model, which takes cohort effects into account, provides a better fit for surrender rates compared to the basic LC model. The findings of this study demonstrate that policy surrender rates are influenced by policy year, period, and cohort effects, offering a reference for insurance companies in managing policy surrender rates.

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