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研究生： 梁致遠
論文名稱： 數量目標與通貨膨脹
Quantitative targets and inflation
指導教授： 林馨怡
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年： 2011
畢業學年度： 99
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 54
中文關鍵詞： 數量目標 、通貨膨脹率 、追蹤資料 、分量迴歸
相關次數： 點閱：237  下載：101 
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    • 本文使用Koenker(2004)的追蹤資料分量迴歸方法分析貨幣政策當局採取官方宣告的(de jure)數量目標(Quantitative targets)與事實上的(de facto)數量目標對於通貨膨脹率之影響。我們分析50個國家在1960年到2007年間的追蹤資料。
    實證結果發現數量目標對通貨膨脹的影響為負向，同時，通貨膨脹越高的國家，其負向效果影響也越大，通貨膨脹越低的國家，則其負向效果影響越小。此結果顯示貨幣政策當局想藉由採取數量目標來降低通貨膨脹率，若該國處於高通貨膨脹環境，則數量目標可以發揮較大的效果，反之，若該國處於適度通貨膨脹環境，則數量目標效果有限。

    1 緒論..................................1
    2 文獻回顧..............................3
    2.1匯率目標.............................4
    2.2通貨膨脹目標.........................5
    2.3貨幣成長率目標.......................10
    3 計量方法..............................12
    3.1分量迴歸.............................12
    3.2分量迴歸與內生性.....................13
    3.3追蹤資料下的分量迴歸.................14
    3.4有內生性問題的追蹤資料分量迴歸.......16
    4 實證結果..............................19
    4.1資料.................................19
    4.2基本結果.............................21
    4.3加入極端通貨膨脹國家.................24
    4.4OECD會員國與非OECD會員國.............33
    4.5不同時期.............................35
    4.6內生性問題...........................41
    5 結論..................................49
    參考文獻................................50
    A 國家資料樣本..........................53
    B 匯率目標的de jure與de facto分類.......54

    表目錄
    1 全部國家與包含極端通貨膨脹超過1000%的國家 敘述統計量 21
    2 OECD會員國與非OECD會員國 敘述統計量 22
    3 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 基本結果-全部國家(1960-2007年) 25
    4 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 不放達成數量目標-全部國家(1960-2007年) 27
    5 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 不放實行數量目標-全部國家(1960-2007年) 28
    6 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 進口-全部國家(1960-2007年) 29
    7 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 出口-全部國家(1960-2007年) 30
    8 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 貿易開放性detrend-全部國家(1960-2007年) 31
    9 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 HP filter-全部國家(1960-2007年) 32
    10 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 包含通貨膨脹率超過1000%的國家 34
    11 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 OECD會員國 36
    12 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 非OECD會員國 37
    13 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 工業化國家.............................38
    14 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 非工業化國家............................39
    15 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 全部國家(1970-2007)....................42
    16 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 全部國家(1980-2007)....................43
    17 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 全部國家(1990-2007)....................44
    18 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 石油危機之後............................45
    19 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 領先一期年通貨膨脹率-全部國家...........47
    20 追蹤資料分量迴歸分析 內生性問題-全部國家.....................48

    圖目錄
    1 基本結果(1960-2007年)............................26

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