生技新藥研發公司不同於電子產業，其特色是研發時間長、資金需求龐大、產品未來商業化可行性之不確定性高，產品一旦成功商業化上市便可獲取極大的利潤，並且產品生命週期相較於電子產業較長，迭代速度較為緩慢。新藥研發過程中，新藥研發公司需龐大的資金投入，也造就許多投資機會。評價生技新藥產業之所以比電子產業困難，也由於新藥在臨床試驗成功機率的高度不確定性。為了反映出新藥研發公司具有是否要推動臨床試驗選擇的權利，實質選擇權評價模型更優於傳統的NPV及rNPV評價模型。實質選擇權具備時間價值、風險調整的概念，也包含新藥研發各階段的選擇價值概念，除了考慮不確定性因素，更能有效規避風險。雖然具備諸多優勢，但在實務上的使用卻不普及，主要原因是原理過於困難，且參數較多導致計算過程較為複雜。本篇論文介紹實質選擇權評價模型所涉及的多項參數，並討論在不同種生技領域的公司其參數該如何設定。後續更搭配四間實際案例的新藥研發公司，以實質選擇權評價模型為主，NPV及rNPV評價模型為輔，進行公司的投資決策以及預期未來理論估值與實際市值比較。在實際投資決策中，實質選擇權、NPV與rNPV所得到決策結果趨於一致。但在新藥研發公司的預期未來理論估值與實際市值的比較，實質選擇權計算的公司估值與實際市值誤差率最低，大幅優於NPV與rNPV的誤差率。主要原因在於適當的資料選取以及保守的參數設定，提供越貼近事實的參數條件，便能獲得越接近實際市值的結果。最後，實質選擇權評價模型雖然具備多項優勢，但卻不是決定投資決策的最優先條件。投資決策首要優先是盡職調查，確定該公司在營運、財務、法律、產品數據、理論邏輯等皆無問題後，最後一步驟才是進行實質選擇權的企業評價分析以及未來預估報酬率評估。切勿本末倒置，將公司之數據參數輸入評價模型後，依所得到的結果作為投資決策的準則，而忽略的盡職調查的重要性。

Biotechnology new drug research and development companies are different from the electronics industry in that they are characterized by long research and development time, huge capital requirements, high uncertainty about the future commercialization feasibility of products, and large profits can be obtained once the product is successfully commercialized. In the process of new drug research and development, new drug development companies require huge capital investment, which also creates many investment opportunities. The reason why it is difficult to evaluate the biotechnology new drug industry compared to the electronics industry is also due to the high degree of uncertainty about the success of new drugs in clinical trials. In order to reflect whether new drug R&D companies have the right to promote clinical trial selection, the real option evaluation model is better than the traditional NPV and rNPV evaluation models. Real options have the concept of time value and risk adjustment, as well as the concept of choice value at each stage of new drug development, which can effectively avoid risks in addition to considering uncertainties. Although it has many advantages, its use in practice is not popular, mainly because the principle is too difficult and the number of parameters makes the calculation process more complicated. This paper introduces the parameters involved in the real options evaluation model and discusses how to set the parameters for companies in different biotechnology fields. Subsequently, four actual cases, new drug R&D companies were matched, mainly based on the real option evaluation model, supplemented by NPV and rNPV evaluation models, to make investment decisions and compare the company's expected future theoretical valuation with the actual market capitalization. In the investment decisions of the actual cases, the decision-making results obtained by real options, NPV and rNPV tend to be consistent. However, when comparing the expected future theoretical valuation and actual market value of new drug R&D companies, the margin of error between the valuation and actual market value of companies calculated by real options is the lowest, which is significantly better than the error rate of NPV and rNPV. The main reason is that appropriate data selection and conservative parameter settings provide parameters that are closer to the facts, the closer the results can be obtained to the actual market value. Finally, although the real options evaluation model has many advantages, it is not the top priority for determining investment decisions. The first priority for investment decisions is prudent due diligence (DD), after confirming that the company has no problems in operation, finance, legal, product data, theoretical logic, etc., the last step is to conduct a corporate evaluation analysis of real options and an evaluation of future estimated returns. Do not put the cart before the horse, and use the results obtained as a criterion for investment decisions after entering the company's data parameters into the evaluation model, ignoring the importance of due diligence.

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