本研究探討在內戰背景下，叛亂團體是否能透過實施治理措施以延長自身在衝突中的生存時間。過去文獻雖指出治理能提升叛亂團體的合法性，並有助於爭取平民支持，但對於治理是否能實際增進叛亂團體在內戰中生存時間的效果仍未有明確結論。本文以1945年至2012年間的230個叛亂團體為研究對象，結合Rebel QSI叛亂治理資料庫，運用邊際結構Cox風險模型進行統計檢驗，分析不同治理項目及治理數量對叛亂團體生存結束風險的影響。研究結果顯示，相較未進行治理的叛亂團體，提供警察、基礎建設、稅、法律、司法、教育、醫療等服務的叛亂團體，其生存結束風險顯著降低。此外，治理項目數量愈多，叛亂團體的生存結束風險亦顯著降低，但叛亂治理對生存時間的影響，並不會受到相對軍事實力的影響而有所變化。上述研究結果顯示，治理行為不僅是具有象徵意義的工具，更是叛亂團體爭取平民支持、建立統治正當性的重要手段，且能實質提升自身生存時間，本研究補足既有文獻忽略叛亂治理對生存效益的研究缺口，並對未來內戰中政府治理策略與國際干預政策提供參考。

This study investigates whether rebel groups engage in governance practices can extend their survival during civil wars. While existing literature suggests that governances can enhance the legitimacy of rebel groups and help garner civilian support, there remains a lack of clear empirical evidence on whether such governance efforts effectively improve the survival of rebel organizations in wartime. This research examines 230 rebel groups between 1945 and 2012, drawing from Rebel QSI datasets. Employing marginal Cox structural models, the study assesses the impact of different types of governance and the overall quantity of governance efforts on the survival risk of rebel groups. The empirical results reveal that, compared to rebel groups that did not engage in governance, those providing services such as policing, infrastructure, taxation, law, justice, health, and education face significantly lower survival risks. Moreover, an increase in the number of governances leads to a further reduction in survival risk. However, the effect of governance on survival risk is not moderated by the relative military strength of the rebel group.
These results indicate that governance is not merely symbolic, but rather a strategic tool through which rebel groups can win civilian support, establish political legitimacy, and substantively prolong their existence. This study fills a gap in the existing literature by providing empirical evidence of the survival benefits of rebel governance and offers insights for future state governance strategies and international intervention policies in civil war.

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