決策的本質在於未來情況的不確定性，而良好的經濟決策有賴於充分適切的資訊，隨著證券市場環境的不斷變化，投資者對於資訊品質的要求日益提高，尤其是有助於投資者減少風險及不確定性之盈餘預測資訊，何以故？因為盈餘預測資訊攸關投資決策之制定。

盈餘預測之準確性為預測資訊有用性的先決條件。本研究首先比較管理當局與財務分析師盈餘預測之相對準確性，其次，探討影響管理當局揭露盈餘預測資訊之因素是否存有有系統性差異，俾供投資者制定投資決策時之參考，並希望對有關機關制定盈餘預測政策有所幫助。

本研究採用在管理當局盈餘預測發佈前最後一個財務分析師盈餘預測（前財務分析師盈餘預測），以及管理當局盈餘預測發佈後第一個財務分析師盈餘預測（後財務分析師盈餘預測）為樣本，分別與管理當局盈餘預測比較預測準確性；此外，更進一步探討兩組配對樣本之管理當局與財務分析師盈餘預測之相對準確性關係，是否因為年度別、預測揭露時機、企業規模大小及企業盈餘變異性高低之不同而有所差異。其次，有關影響管理當局揭露盈餘預測資訊之因素方面，係由企業盈餘變異性高低、管理當局盈餘預測揭露時機與揭露型態之兩兩關係加以探討。由於本研究之樣本資料非呈常態分配，故以無母數統計檢定方法從事資料之分析。

根據實證結果顯示：一、管理當局盈餘預測之準確性優於前財務分析師盈餘預測，而後財務分析師盈餘預測之準確性優於管理當局盈餘預測，二、管理當局與前財務分析師盈餘預測之相對準確性關係，除企業規模大小外，將因為年度別、預測揭露時機及仩業盈餘變異性高低之不同而有所差異，但管理當局與後財務分析師盈餘預測之相對準確性關係，並不因為年度別、預測揭露時機、企業規模大小，及企業盈餘變異性高低之不同而有所差異，三、盈餘變異性愈高之企業管理當局傾向於愈晚發佈盈餘預測資訊，四、盈餘變異性愈高之企業管理當局傾向於發佈好消息之盈餘預測資訊，五、企業管理當局傾向於愈早發佈好消息之盈餘預測資訊，而儘量延遲發佈壞消息之盈餘預測資訊。

一、中文部份
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1 0 許秀賓，財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十年七月。
1 1 游萬淵，會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
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