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研究生: 黃浩芯
Huang, Hao-Hsin
論文名稱: 危老重建之核准對周邊房價之影響 — 以臺北市 2017 年至 2025 年第三季為例
The Impact of Reconstruction Approvals for Unsafe and Old Buildings on Nearby Housing Prices: Evidence from Taipei City, 2017–2025 Q3
指導教授: 彭喜樞
口試委員: 白仁德
楊子霆
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 財政學系
Department of Public Finance
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 115
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 124
中文關鍵詞: 危老重建住宅價格local DID容積獎勵事件研究法空間分析
外文關鍵詞: Reconstruction of unsafe and old buildings, Housing prices, Local DID, Floor area ratio bonus, Event study, Spatial analysis
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  • 近年臺北市建築老化問題日益明顯,政府為加速老舊建築重建,於 2017 年施行《都市危險及老舊建築物加速重建條例》(簡稱危老條例),透過容積獎勵、稅賦減免及簡化行政程序等方式,提高民間參與重建之誘因。相較於都市更新制度,危老重建具有核准程序快速、小基地開發及制度確定性較高等特性,因此危老核准可能影響市場對區域更新之預期,進而反映於周邊住宅價格。
    本研究以臺北市危老重建核准案件為研究對象,結合 2017 年至 2025 年第三季之實價登錄資料,探討危老重建核准對周邊住宅價格之影響。研究方法上,採用近距離差異中的差異法(local difference-in-differences, local DID),綜合相關文獻與多重空間距離測試結果後,本文以危老基地周邊 100 公尺內住宅作為處理組,100 至 300 公尺內住宅作為對照組,比較核准前後之住宅價格變化。此外,本文結合事件研究法(event study),檢驗平行趨勢假設,並執行多項穩健性檢定。在空間資料處理方面,透過 QGIS 建立危老基地多邊形圖資,有助於降低距離測量誤差,並更精確反映危老重建基地與周邊住宅之實際空間關係。
    研究結果指出,危老重建核准後,距離危老重建基地較近之住宅,其價格相對於對照組呈現顯著正向反應,顯示市場將危老重建核准視為區域更新與環境改善之正向訊號。進一步發現,危老重建核准之效果可能受到容積獎勵、建物屋齡特性等因素影響。同時,行政區異質性分析結果反映,不同區域因都市發展條件、交通負荷與建物結構差異,危老重建核准之效果有所不同。
    整體而言,本研究結果顯示危老重建核准與周邊住宅價格間具有顯著正向關聯。相較於既有文獻多以都市更新為研究對象,本文聚焦於危老重建核准政策,並透過 local DID 與建構危老重建基地多邊形圖資,提升空間距離衡量之精確性。研究結果除補充危老重建核准與價格之相關文獻外,亦可作為未來危老重建政策、容積獎勵制度與都市更新規劃之參考。


    In recent years, building aging and deterioration have become increasingly serious in Taipei City. To accelerate the reconstruction of aging buildings, the Taiwanese government enacted the Statute for Expediting Reconstruction of Urban Unsafe and Old Buildings in 2017. Compared with conventional urban renewal programs, reconstruction of unsafe and old buildings features faster approval procedures and greater institutional certainty, which may affect nearby housing prices.
    This study investigates the impact of reconstruction approvals on nearby housing prices in Taipei City using housing transaction data from 2017 to the third quarter of 2025. A local DID approach is employed to compare residences within 100 meters of reconstruction sites with those located between 100 and 300 meters. An event study approach and several robustness checks are also conducted. QGIS is used to construct polygon-based spatial data for reconstruction sites, improving measurement accuracy.
    The results indicate that residences located closer to reconstruction sites experience significant positive price effects after project approval, suggesting that the market interprets reconstruction approvals as signals of neighborhood renewal and environmental improvement. Moreover, these effects may vary with floor area ratio bonus rates, building age, and regional conditions.
    Overall, reconstruction approvals are significantly associated with nearby housing prices. Compared with previous studies focusing on urban renewal, this study focuses on reconstruction projects for unsafe and old buildings and combines a local DID design with polygon-based spatial data. The findings contribute to the literature on housing prices and urban redevelopment, and provide implications for urban renewal planning.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景與動機 1
    第二節 研究問題與目的 4
    第三節 研究範圍與對象 6
    第四節 研究方法與流程 7
    第五節 研究預期貢獻 10
    第二章 文獻回顧 11
    第一節 住宅投資之空間外部性與資本化理論 11
    第二節 特徵價格理論與住宅價格決定因素 13
    第三節 都市更新與危老重建之制度比較及外溢意涵 15
    第四節 都市更新政策之預期心理與異質性探討 18
    第五節 空間分析方法與 local DID 之相關研究 21
    第三章 研究設計 25
    第一節 研究架構 25
    第二節 資料來源與樣本建構 26
    第三節 變數定義 34
    第四節 內生性問題與 local DID 研究設計 38
    第五節 實證模型設定 39
    第六節 事件研究法與平行趨勢檢定 40
    第七節 穩健性檢驗設計 43
    第八節 異質性分析設計 45
    第四章 實證結果與分析 46
    第一節 樣本敘述統計與基本比較 46
    第二節 基準 local DID 之實證結果 48
    第三節 年度事件研究 53
    第四節 容積獎勵擴充模型之實證結果 55
    第五節 多重穩健性檢定 65
    第六節 行政區異質性分析 72
    第七節 建物屋齡異質性分析 79
    第八節 小結 85
    第五章 結論與建議 86
    第一節 研究結論 86
    第二節 政策建議 87
    第三節 研究限制與未來方向 89
    參考文獻 91
    附錄 104

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    (五)網際網路
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